GOTHAM - Globally Observed Teleconnections in Hierarchies of Atmospheric Models

GOTHAM - 全球观测到的大气模型层次结构中的遥相关

• 批准号: NE/P006779/1
• 负责人: Lesley Gray
• 金额: $ 52万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP006779%2F1
• 关键词: GOTHAM; Globally; Observed; Teleconnections; Hierarchies

GOTHAM represents an ambitious research programme to gain robust, relevant and transferable knowledge of past and present day patterns and trends of regional climate extremes and variability of vulnerable areas identified by the IPCC, including the tropics and high-latitudes. It will achieve this by identifying the influence of remote drivers, or teleconnections, on regional climate variability, and assessing their relative impact. It will also assess the potential for improved season-decadal prediction using a combination of contemporary climate models, citizen-science computing and advanced statistical analysis tools. GOTHAM has the direct backing of many international weather and climate research centres, and will lead to the improved development of seasonal-decadal forecasts at the regional level. The improved knowledge and understanding of dynamical factors that influence regional weather and climate in the tropics/sub-tropics, and polar regions, will directly feed through to weather and climate forecast services to assist in their decisions on which priority areas of their model development to target in order to improve forecast skills. For example, GOTHAM will advise whether a model is missing or misrepresenting important global teleconnections that significantly influence regional climate in identified vulnerable regions. These impacts will be achieved through regular meetings with GOTHAM investigator groups and their extended collaborative networks, and extensive involvement in wider science and science-policy programmes with co-aligned strategies, such as the core projects within the WCRP. Improved seasonal to decadal scale forecasts will improve predictions of extreme events and natural hazard risks such as flooding that can have devastating impact on society. There is real potential for project results feeding through to impacts-related research, such as those involved in hydrological and flood forecast modeling, and these will be explored in liaison with identified partners in Asia and Europe.

GOTHAM是一个雄心勃勃的研究方案，目的是获得关于气候变化专门委员会确定的脆弱地区，包括热带和高纬度地区的区域气候极端现象和变化的过去和现在的模式和趋势的可靠、相关和可转让的知识。它将通过确定远程驱动因素或遥相关对区域气候变率的影响并评估其相对影响来实现这一目标。它还将评估综合利用当代气候模型、公民科学计算和先进统计分析工具改进季节-十年预测的潜力。GOTHAM得到许多国际天气和气候研究中心的直接支持，将导致区域一级季节性-十年期预报的改进。对影响热带/亚热带和极地区域天气和气候的动力因素的更好的认识和理解将直接影响天气和气候预报服务，以帮助它们决定其模型开发的优先领域，以提高预报技能。例如，GOTHAM将建议一个模型是否缺少或歪曲了对已确定的脆弱地区的区域气候产生重大影响的重要全球遥相关。这些影响将通过与全球气候变化研究中心调查小组及其扩大的合作网络定期举行会议，以及广泛参与具有共同协调战略的更广泛的科学和科学政策方案，如世界气候研究方案内的核心项目来实现。改进季节到十年尺度的预报将改善对极端事件和自然灾害风险的预测，如可能对社会产生破坏性影响的洪水。项目成果有真实的潜力用于影响相关的研究，例如水文和洪水预测建模方面的研究，将与亚洲和欧洲确定的合作伙伴共同探讨这些潜力。

项目成果

The SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative

SPARC 准两年期振荡计划

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.3820
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Anstey J

Historical Simulations With HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6

• DOI: 10.1029/2019ms001995
• 发表时间: 2020-06-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
• 影响因子: 6.8
• 作者: Andrews, Martin B.;Ridley, Jeff K.;Sutton, Rowan T.
• 通讯作者: Sutton, Rowan T.

Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi)

参与 SPARC 准两年振荡计划 (QBOi) 第一阶段的模型的实验设计和比较概述

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2017-187
• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Butchart N

Prospect of Increased Disruption to the QBO in a Changing Climate

• DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093058
• 发表时间: 2021-08-16
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Anstey, James A.;Banyard, Timothy P.;Wright, Corwin J.
• 通讯作者: Wright, Corwin J.

Evaluation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in global climate models for the SPARC QBO-initiative

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.3765
• 发表时间: 2020-03-14
• 期刊: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Bushell, A. C.;Anstey, J. A.;Yukimoto, S.
• 通讯作者: Yukimoto, S.