Probability and Uncertainty in Risk Estimation and Communication

我们的总体目标是通过改进(a)地震灾害和地震及其后果事件风险的评估，以及(b)在制定更符合比例和基于风险的减灾战略中沟通和使用概率信息，从而在中国建立地震恢复能力。我们将以最近开发的地震历史目录为基础并加以扩展，首次将其扩展到包括随之而来的事件（山体滑坡、碎片/泥石流、突发洪水），将这个新数据库与现代仪器数据统一起来，使用最先进的统计技术来量化相关的不确定性，并将基于社会科学的风险沟通和治理理解纳入其中，以改进政策的制定和实施。该工作方案将在四川省（含2008年汶川地震）和云南省开展。四川是中国最富裕的省份之一，而云南则是最贫穷的省份之一。虽然四川和云南都是构造活跃的多山地区，因此不仅容易受到地震的影响，也容易受到地震引发的山体滑坡和洪水的危害。这些财富上的差异，再加上2008年四川汶川大地震与1996年云南丽江地震的记忆相对较弱，构成了一个自然的实验，用来测试改进的概率风险评估以及地震和随之而来的事件危害对人员和财产的相关不确定性，在支持更多基于风险的减灾方法方面的有效性。该项目将通过改进对地震灾害和随之而来的事件风险的评估，以及决策者和当地公众对由此产生的概率预测的沟通、理解和使用，促进中国地震易发地区的长期可持续增长。它解决了中国历次国家减灾战略中确定的若干具体能力差距。除了与国家和地方两级的决策者接触，以提高应急规划和建筑规范管理的有效性外，我们还将直接与当地公众接触，以提高公众对风险的理解和应对风险的能力。通过这样做，该项目还将履行英国的官方发展援助（ODA）承诺，通过利用英国的科学基础来解决影响中国最贫困人口的一个关键脆弱性，促进“发展中国家的经济发展和福利”。

Our overall aim is to build earthquake resilience in China by improving (a) the assessment of seismic hazard and risk from earthquakes and consequent events and (b) the communication and use of probabilistic information in the development of more proportionate and risk-based strategies for disaster risk reduction. We will build on and extend a recently-developed historical catalogue for earthquakes, extend it for the first time to include consequent events (landslides, debris/mud-flows, outburst floods), unify this new database with modern instrumental data, use state-of the art statistical techniques to quantify the associated uncertainties, and incorporate social science-based understanding of risk communication and governance to improve policy development and implementation. The work programme will be carried out in Si-chuan (including the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake) and Yun-nan provinces. While they are both tectonically active, and mountainous, and thus vulnerable not only to earthquakes but also to consequent hazards of earthquake-triggered landslides and flooding, Si-chuan is one of the wealthiest provinces in China, while Yun-nan is one of poorest. These differences in wealth, combined with the recency of the devastating 2008 Wenchuan in Si-chuan compared to the more attenuated memory of the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yun-nan, make for a natural experiment in which to test the efficacy of improved probabilistic assessment of risk and associated uncertainty to people and property by earthquakes, and consequent event hazards, in supporting more risk-based approaches to disaster reduction.This project will promote long-term sustainable growth in earthquake prone regions of China by improving both the assessment of earthquake hazard and consequent event risk and the communication, understanding, and use of the resulting probabilistic forecasts for disaster risk reduction by policymakers and local publics. It addresses several specific capacity gaps identified in successive Chinese national disaster risk reduction strategies. As well as engaging with policymakers at both the national and local levels to improve the effectiveness of emergency planning and building code regulation, we will also engage directly with local publics to enhance public understanding of risk and capacity to deal with it. In so doing, the project will also fulfil the UK's Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitment to promoting "the economic development and welfare of developing countries" by drawing on UK's science base to address a key vulnerability differentially affecting the very poorest in China.