Coupled Human And Natural Systems Environment (CHANSE) for water management under uncertainty in the Indo-Gangetic Plain

管理水资源在印度-恒河平原（IGP）是一个巨大的挑战，因为该流域的规模，生物物理的复杂性和动态的机构和社会经济特征的独特性。为了粮食安全而进行的农业集约化，加上用于灌溉的取水缺乏管理和效率低下，以及废物管理做法控制不力，导致水资源在数量和质量上都出现退化，危及生态系统服务和人类健康。大量用水与能源部门直接相关，并大大增加了碳排放总量。流域的水文还受到密集城市化的影响，减少了地下水的渗透和补给。最后，由于与季风周期有关的水需求和季节性供应之间的不平衡，以及地表水和地下水使用战略的协调规划方面的困难，IGP的水管理面临挑战。土地使用和土地覆盖的变化会改变蒸散量，可能会反馈到大规模的水文气候过程，此外，还会扰乱流域脆弱的人类-自然系统。由于地方法规和治理，IGP的水资源管理面临更多困难。缺乏跨部门合作导致对稀缺水资源的竞争，而政府对灌溉用水和电力的大量补贴可能导致资源的大量浪费。最后，该流域的地下水资源在很大程度上是灌溉和农村及城市供水的主要来源，由多个机构独立管理。考虑到预期的人口增长和气候变化的影响，很明显，在印度实现水安全，特别是IGP，是一个越来越大的挑战，需要跨部门，当地社区，机构和学术界的跨学科合作。该项目汇集了来自英国领先的研究人员，（伦敦帝国理工学院、埃克塞特大学和英国地质调查局）和印度（IISc班加罗尔、IIT孟买、IITM浦那和ATREE班加罗尔）机构与国际（教科文组织）和地方（CEEW）非政府组织合作，研究的总体目标是改善人类活动之间的主要相互作用和反馈的绘图和量化和IGP的水文气象系统。该项目将提供信息，以改进关于农业、饮用水、生态系统和其他需要的水分配的决策。该项目建立在最近由英国/印度联合资助的合作伙伴参与的研究基础上，该研究开发了一系列高度相关的数据集，工具和模型。具体而言，我们将：（i）使用完全耦合的地表-地下水模拟装置，在IGP范围内，根据当前和未来短期天气预测和人类活动，估计地表水和地下水的可用性;（ii）通过整合新的消费者和生态流量需求模块，调查自然系统内水利用和需求相互作用在空间和时间上的传播; ㈢利用天气研究和预报模型以及社区土地模型4.0版，为综合地理方案提供十年期、季节性和次季节性季风降雨的区域预测和洪水预报，为制定替代性水管理战略提供信息;（iv）将对人类和自然系统的更好理解转化为IGP的水管理规划，以实现水、粮食和生态安全。该项目将利用受到这些问题影响的甘达克河次流域作为理解过程的案例研究集水区。将在综合全球方案流域一级分析水管理战略和水分配对当地气候的反馈。

Managing water resources in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is a tremendous challenge because of the basin's uniqueness in scale, biophysical complexity and the dynamics of its institutional and socio-economic characteristics. Agricultural intensification for food security, combined with unmanaged and inefficient water abstraction for irrigation, and poorly controlled waste management practices, has led to degradation of water resources both in terms of quantity and quality, endangering ecosystem services and human health. Extensive water use is directly linked to the energy sector, and contributes significantly to total carbon emissions. The hydrology of the basin is additionally affected by intensive urbanisation that reduces infiltration and recharge to groundwater. Ultimately, water management in the IGP is challenged by the imbalance between water demand and seasonal availability related to the monsoon cycle, and difficulties in coordinated planning of surface water and groundwater use strategies. Land use and land cover changes, which can modify evapotranspiration, may feed back to large-scale hydro-climatic processes and additionally, disturb the fragile human-natural system of the basin. Management of water resources in the IGP faces additional difficulties because of the local regulations and governance. Lack of cross-sectorial cooperation leads to competition for scarce water resources, while significant governmental subsidies for irrigation water and electricity potentially lead to significant wastage of resources. Finally, the basin's groundwater resources that are, to a large extent, a primary source for irrigation and rural and urban water supply, are independently managed by multiple agencies. Considering expected population growth and impacts of climate change, it is clear that achieving water security in India and especially, the IGP, is a growing challenge that requires interdisciplinary collaboration across sectors, local communities, institutions and academia. This project brings together researchers from leading UK (Imperial College London, University of Exeter and British Geological Survey) and Indian (IISc Bangalore, IIT Bombay, IITM Pune, and ATREE Bangalore) institutions, in partnership with international (UNESCO) and local (CEEW) non-governmental organisations, to support water management in the IGP.The overarching aim of the research is to improve mapping and quantification of dominant interactions and feedbacks between human activities and the hydro-meteorological system of the IGP. This project will provide information for improved decision-making on water allocation for agriculture, drinking water, ecosystems and other needs. The project builds on recent joint UK/India-funded research involving the partners, which has developed a series of highly relevant datasets, tools and models. Specifically, we will: (i) estimate surface and groundwater availability under current and future short-term weather predictions and anthropogenic activities within the IGP using a fully coupled, land surface-groundwater modelling setup; (ii) investigate the propagation, in space and time, of interactions of water uses and needs within the natural system by integrating novel consumer and ecological flow demand modules; (iii) provide regional predictions of decadal, seasonal and sub-seasonal monsoon rainfall and flood forecasting for the IGP, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Community Land Model version 4.0 to inform development of alternative water management strategies; (iv) translate the improved understanding of Human And Natural Systems into IGP's water management planning for water, food and ecological security. The project will use the River Gandak sub-basin, which has been impacted by these issues, as a case-study catchment for process-understanding. Water management strategies and feedbacks of water allocation to local climate will be analysed at the IGP basin level.