Coupled Human And Natural Systems Environment (CHANSE) for water management under uncertainty in the Indo-Gangetic Plain

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Managing water resources in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is a tremendous challenge because of the basin's uniqueness in scale, biophysical complexity and the dynamics of its institutional and socio-economic characteristics. Agricultural intensification for food security, combined with unmanaged and inefficient water abstraction for irrigation, and poorly controlled waste management practices, has led to degradation of water resources both in terms of quantity and quality, endangering ecosystem services and human health. Extensive water use is directly linked to the energy sector, and contributes significantly to total carbon emissions. The hydrology of the basin is additionally affected by intensive urbanisation that reduces infiltration and recharge to groundwater. Ultimately, water management in the IGP is challenged by the imbalance between water demand and seasonal availability related to the monsoon cycle, and difficulties in coordinated planning of surface water and groundwater use strategies. Land use and land cover changes, which can modify evapotranspiration, may feed back to large-scale hydro-climatic processes and additionally, disturb the fragile human-natural system of the basin. Management of water resources in the IGP faces additional difficulties because of the local regulations and governance. Lack of cross-sectorial cooperation leads to competition for scarce water resources, while significant governmental subsidies for irrigation water and electricity potentially lead to significant wastage of resources. Finally, the basin's groundwater resources that are, to a large extent, a primary source for irrigation and rural and urban water supply, are independently managed by multiple agencies. Considering expected population growth and impacts of climate change, it is clear that achieving water security in India and especially, the IGP, is a growing challenge that requires interdisciplinary collaboration across sectors, local communities, institutions and academia. This project brings together researchers from leading UK (Imperial College London, University of Exeter and British Geological Survey) and Indian (IISc Bangalore, IIT Bombay, IITM Pune, and ATREE Bangalore) institutions, in partnership with international (UNESCO) and local (CEEW) non-governmental organisations, to support water management in the IGP.The overarching aim of the research is to improve mapping and quantification of dominant interactions and feedbacks between human activities and the hydro-meteorological system of the IGP. This project will provide information for improved decision-making on water allocation for agriculture, drinking water, ecosystems and other needs. The project builds on recent joint UK/India-funded research involving the partners, which has developed a series of highly relevant datasets, tools and models. Specifically, we will: (i) estimate surface and groundwater availability under current and future short-term weather predictions and anthropogenic activities within the IGP using a fully coupled, land surface-groundwater modelling setup; (ii) investigate the propagation, in space and time, of interactions of water uses and needs within the natural system by integrating novel consumer and ecological flow demand modules; (iii) provide regional predictions of decadal, seasonal and sub-seasonal monsoon rainfall and flood forecasting for the IGP, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Community Land Model version 4.0 to inform development of alternative water management strategies; (iv) translate the improved understanding of Human And Natural Systems into IGP's water management planning for water, food and ecological security. The project will use the River Gandak sub-basin, which has been impacted by these issues, as a case-study catchment for process-understanding. Water management strategies and feedbacks of water allocation to local climate will be analysed at the IGP basin level.