Robust Spatial Projections of Real-World Climate Change

现实世界气候变化的稳健空间预测

• 批准号: NE/N018486/1
• 负责人: Matthew Collins
• 金额: $ 142.48万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FN018486%2F1
• 关键词: Robust; Spatial; Projections; Real; World

Climate change is one of the leading global challenges facing society and the planet. Predicting how the climate will change as human activities lead to emission of more greenhouse gases is a global scientific challenge for climate scientists.We use models of the climate to make predictions. Because of limitations in computing power, and because of gaps in our understanding of the climate, these models are not perfect. Predictions from the models are, therefore, also not perfect. We are faced by the huge challenge of extracting robust information from climate models about how real-world climate will change in the future under specified scenarios of different greenhouse gas emissions. Such projections are central to leading climate change assessments, such as those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).This project will provide a step-change in the ability of climate scientists to produce robust projections of climate change and to quantify the uncertainties in projections. A new framework will be developed that combines information from models, observations and our basic understanding of climate with modern statistical techniques to produce projections. This new framework will be applied to three important climate regimes of Earth: tropical and subtropical temperature and precipitation change; middle latitude cyclones and anti-cyclones; and polar temperature and sea-ice changes.We will bring together leading UK scientists (many are IPCC authors) from the Universities of Exeter, Reading, Oxford and East Anglia, and the Met Office, to address this grand challenge in climate science. We aim to precipitate a cultural shift that unifies diverse approaches from techniques to understand climate process and statistical methods and consolidate the UKs position as a world-leading centre for climate projection science.

气候变化是社会和地球面临的主要全球性挑战之一。随着人类活动导致更多温室气体的排放，预测气候将如何变化是气候科学家面临的一项全球性科学挑战。我们使用气候模型进行预测。由于计算能力的限制，以及我们对气候的理解存在差距，这些模型并不完美。因此，模型的预测也不完美。我们面临着巨大的挑战，即从气候模型中提取关于在不同温室气体排放的特定情景下未来现实世界气候将如何变化的可靠信息。这类预测对主导气候变化评估至关重要，例如政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）所作的评估，这一项目将使气候科学家的能力发生重大变化，使他们能够对气候变化作出可靠的预测，并量化预测中的不确定性。将制定一个新的框架，将来自模型、观测和我们对气候的基本理解的信息与现代统计技术结合起来，以进行预测。这个新框架将应用于地球的三个重要气候状况：热带和亚热带温度和降水变化;中纬度气旋和反气旋;以及极地温度和海冰变化。我们将汇集来自埃克塞特大学、阅读大学、牛津大学、东安格利亚大学和英国气象局的英国领先科学家（其中许多是IPCC作者），以应对气候科学中的这一重大挑战。我们的目标是促成一种文化转变，统一从技术到理解气候过程和统计方法的各种方法，并巩固英国作为世界领先的气候预测科学中心的地位。

项目成果

Improvements in Circumpolar Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5

• DOI: 10.1029/2019ea001065
• 发表时间: 2020-06-01
• 期刊: EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Bracegirdle, T. J.;Holmes, C. R.;Rackow, T.
• 通讯作者: Rackow, T.

Modeling the GABLS4 Strongly-Stable Boundary Layer With a GCM Turbulence Parameterization: Parametric Sensitivity or Intrinsic Limits?

• DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002269
• 发表时间: 2021-03-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
• 影响因子: 6.8
• 作者: Audouin, O.;Roehrig, R.;Williamson, D.
• 通讯作者: Williamson, D.

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-855-2020
• 发表时间: 2020-03-06
• 期刊: CRYOSPHERE
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Barthel, Alice;Agosta, Cecile;Bracegirdle, Thomas J.
• 通讯作者: Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

Twenty first century changes in Antarctic and Southern Ocean surface climate in CMIP6

• DOI: 10.1002/asl.984
• 发表时间: 2020-05-28
• 期刊: ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS
• 影响因子: 3
• 作者: Bracegirdle, Thomas J.;Krinner, Gerhard;Wainer, Ilana
• 通讯作者: Wainer, Ilana

CMIP5 Diversity in Southern Westerly Jet Projections Related to Historical Sea Ice Area: Strong Link to Strengthening and Weak Link to Shift

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-17-0320.1
• 发表时间: 2018-01-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Bracegirdle, Thomas J.;Hyder, Patrick;Holmes, Caroline R.
• 通讯作者: Holmes, Caroline R.