Process-Based Emergent Constraints on Global Physical and Biogeochemical Feedbacks
对全球物理和生物地球化学反馈的基于过程的紧急约束
基本信息
- 批准号:NE/K016016/1
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 50.66万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:英国
- 项目类别:Research Grant
- 财政年份:2013
- 资助国家:英国
- 起止时间:2013 至 无数据
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
We use complex computer models of the climate system to make predictions of how climate will change in the future under scenarios of global warming. Despite the use of large supercomputers, we have to make approximations in building climate models so that we can produce century-long climate simulations. These approximations lead to 'errors' in models i.e. we know that climate models cannot reproduce exactly the observations we have made of past average climate and climate change. Climate model errors lead to uncertainties when we make predictions.We constantly strive to build new and better climate models in order to reduce uncertainty in predictions. We are guided by our past experience and intuition in targeting resources in specific areas of model improvement. But can we be more efficient? If we knew which of the many errors that exist in our ability to simulate present day climate and climate change are most important in determining the uncertainties in future predictions, could we better use our limited resources to improve models more quickly?In this proposal we aim to develop a generic technique to better target resources on improving climate models. The central concept, which we call a process-based emergent constraint, is to link errors in climate models to uncertainties in predictions. We will target three different areas; water vapour and lapse rate (the rate of change of atmospheric temperature with altitude), low-level clouds and processes that affect the rate of exchange of carbon in the land-surface and vegetation with the atmosphere. All these processes are know to have a leading-order influence on uncertainty in global temperature predictions and their regional consequences. We aim to exploit state-of-the-art model simulations and data from new observational platforms or data from existing observations that we will process in novel ways. There will be a focus on data from satellites. A key aim of our project is to identify processes that are responsible for both errors in models and uncertainties in predictions and to develop measures (metrics) that can be used to evaluate those processes in models.The project will provide multiple examples of how to target climate model improvement on processes that really matter for projections. The ultimate aim is to reduce uncertainty in predictions. However, in addition, the project will provide information on how to better target new observations of specific climate processes. We aim to make recommendations for future observational programmes (or the continuation of existing programmes) that will lead to more rapid progress in climate modeling and prediction.
我们使用气候系统的复杂计算机模型来预测在全球变暖的情况下未来气候将如何变化。尽管使用了大型超级计算机,但我们在建立气候模型时必须进行近似,以便我们能够进行长达一个世纪的气候模拟。这些近似值会导致模型中的“错误”,也就是说,我们知道气候模型不能准确地再现我们对过去平均气候和气候变化的观测。气候模型误差会导致我们在进行预测时产生不确定性。我们不断努力构建新的更好的气候模型,以减少预测中的不确定性。我们以过去的经验和直觉为指导,将资源集中在模型改进的特定领域。但是我们能更有效率吗?如果我们知道在我们模拟当今气候和气候变化的能力中存在的许多错误中,哪一个对确定未来预测的不确定性最重要,我们是否可以更好地利用有限的资源更快地改进模型?在这项提案中,我们的目标是开发一种通用技术,以更好地将资源用于改善气候模型。我们称之为基于过程的紧急约束的中心概念是将气候模型中的错误与预测中的不确定性联系起来。我们将针对三个不同的领域:水蒸气和直减率(大气温度随高度的变化率),低空云层和影响地表和植被与大气的碳交换率的过程。已知所有这些过程对全球温度预测及其区域后果的不确定性具有领先顺序的影响。我们的目标是利用最先进的模型模拟和来自新观测平台的数据或来自现有观测的数据,我们将以新的方式处理这些数据。将重点关注卫星数据。我们项目的一个主要目标是识别造成模型误差和预测不确定性的过程,并开发可用于评估模型中这些过程的措施(度量)。该项目将提供多个例子,说明如何针对对预测真正重要的过程改进气候模型。最终目标是减少预测的不确定性。然而,除此之外,该项目还将提供信息,说明如何更好地针对具体气候过程进行新的观测。我们的目标是为未来的观测计划(或现有计划的继续)提出建议,这些计划将导致气候建模和预测的更快进展。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Are strong fire-vegetation feedbacks needed to explain the spatial distribution of tropical tree cover?
是否需要强烈的火灾植被反馈来解释热带树木覆盖的空间分布?
- DOI:10.1111/geb.12380
- 发表时间:2015
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:6.4
- 作者:Good P
- 通讯作者:Good P
Vegetation distribution and terrestrial carbon cycle in a carbon cycle configuration of JULES4.6 with new plant functional types
- DOI:10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018
- 发表时间:2018-07-13
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:5.1
- 作者:Harper, Anna B.;Wiltshire, Andrew J.;Duran-Rojas, Carolina
- 通讯作者:Duran-Rojas, Carolina
Multi vegetation model evaluation of the Green Sahara climate regime
- DOI:10.1002/2017gl073740
- 发表时间:2017-07-16
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:5.2
- 作者:Hopcroft, Peter O.;Valdes, Paul J.;Beerling, David J.
- 通讯作者:Beerling, David J.
Quantifying the temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on global-mean precipitation in a multi-model ensemble
量化多模式集合中平流层气溶胶地球工程对全球平均降水的与温度无关的影响
- DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034012
- 发表时间:2016
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:6.7
- 作者:Ferraro A
- 通讯作者:Ferraro A
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Matthew Collins其他文献
Increasing usability of the PRAGMA cloud testbed
提高 PRAGMA 云测试台的可用性
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2017 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Nadya Williams;Matthew Collins;Kohei Ichikawa;Prapaporn Rattanatamrong;Philip Papadopoulos - 通讯作者:
Philip Papadopoulos
Early emergence and determinants of human-induced Walker circulation weakening
人类诱发的沃克环流减弱的早期出现和决定因素
- DOI:
10.1038/s41467-024-53509-6 - 发表时间:
2024-10-24 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:15.700
- 作者:
Mingna Wu;Chao Li;Matthew Collins;Hongmei Li;Xiaolong Chen;Tianjun Zhou;Zhongshi Zhang - 通讯作者:
Zhongshi Zhang
PREDICTORS OF ANTICOAGULATION COMPLIANCE IN PATIENTS WITH PULMONARY EMBOLISM AFTER HOSPITAL ADMISSION
- DOI:
10.1016/s0735-1097(21)03215-0 - 发表时间:
2021-05-11 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:
- 作者:
Karim Merchant;Parth Desai;Stephen Morris;Dalila Masic;Sovik DeSirkar;Nicolas Krepostman;Matthew Collins;Nathalie Antonios;Lucas Chan;Joshua Newman;Sorcha Allen;Ahmad Manshad;Shannon Kuhrau;Jawed Fareed;Ahmed Elkaryoni;Yevgeniy Brailovsky;Amir Darki - 通讯作者:
Amir Darki
Predictors of anticoagulation adherence in patients with acute pulmonary embolism
- DOI:
10.1016/j.tru.2022.100100 - 发表时间:
2022-03-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:
- 作者:
Karim Merchant;Parth V. Desai;Stephen Morris;Sovik De Sirkar;Dalila Masic;Parth Shah;Nicolas Krepostman;Matthew Collins;Kevin Walsh;Nathalie Antonios;Lucas Chan;Sorcha Allen;Ahmad Manshad;Shannon Kuhrau;Alexandru Marginean;Ahmed Elkaryoni;Jawed Fareed;Yevgeniy Brailovsky;Amir Darki - 通讯作者:
Amir Darki
The impact of random natural variability on aspartic acid racemization ratios in enamel from different types of human teeth.
随机自然变异对不同类型人类牙齿牙釉质中天冬氨酸外消旋比率的影响。
- DOI:
10.1016/j.forsciint.2010.04.005 - 发表时间:
2010 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:2.2
- 作者:
R. Griffin;Kirsty Penkman;H. Moody;Matthew Collins - 通讯作者:
Matthew Collins
Matthew Collins的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Matthew Collins', 18)}}的其他基金
Dynamical constraints on the future of extratropical precipitation: atmospheric rivers and extratropical storms (DyARES)
未来温带降水的动力约束:大气河流和温带风暴(DyARES)
- 批准号:
NE/R005222/1 - 财政年份:2018
- 资助金额:
$ 50.66万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Robust Spatial Projections of Real-World Climate Change
现实世界气候变化的稳健空间预测
- 批准号:
NE/N018486/1 - 财政年份:2016
- 资助金额:
$ 50.66万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)
确保对间断和激增事件的多学科理解和预测 (SMURPHS)
- 批准号:
NE/N005783/1 - 财政年份:2015
- 资助金额:
$ 50.66万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Ice shelves in a warming world: Filchner Ice Shelf system, Antarctica
变暖世界中的冰架:南极洲菲尔希纳冰架系统
- 批准号:
NE/L013754/1 - 财政年份:2015
- 资助金额:
$ 50.66万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
South Asian Precipitation: A Seamless Assessment: SAPRISE
南亚降水:无缝评估:SAPRISE
- 批准号:
NE/I022841/1 - 财政年份:2012
- 资助金额:
$ 50.66万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
HydrOlogical cYcle Understanding vIa Process-bAsed GlObal Detection, Attribution and prediction (Horyuji PAGODA)
通过基于过程的全球检测、归因和预测了解水文循环(Horyuji PAGODA)
- 批准号:
NE/I006524/1 - 财政年份:2011
- 资助金额:
$ 50.66万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
APPOSITE: Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Inter-annual Timescales
适用:北极的可预测性和季节到年际时间尺度的预测
- 批准号:
NE/I029137/1 - 财政年份:2011
- 资助金额:
$ 50.66万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Collaborative Doctoral 2010 Grant - PrediCtoR: A predictive tool for managing destructive sampling of materials for ancient DNA analysis
2010 年合作博士补助金 - PrediCtoR:用于管理古代 DNA 分析材料破坏性采样的预测工具
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AH/I505245/1 - 财政年份:2010
- 资助金额:
$ 50.66万 - 项目类别:
Training Grant
Collaborative Doctoral 2010 Grant - Eggs is eggs: making shell fragments visible in the archaeological record
2010 年合作博士补助金 - 鸡蛋就是鸡蛋:让贝壳碎片在考古记录中可见
- 批准号:
AH/I504958/1 - 财政年份:2010
- 资助金额:
$ 50.66万 - 项目类别:
Training Grant
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