Dynamical constraints on the future of extratropical precipitation: atmospheric rivers and extratropical storms (DyARES)

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Most precipitation in the middle latitudes comes from extratropical cyclones - low pressure systems with fronts which regularly bring precipitation to the UK and elsewhere. Many large-scale precipitation extremes, high winds and floods are also associated with these events such that they have a major impact on society. Where these cyclones have long, trailing plumes of moisture connecting them to the tropics ('atmospheric rivers') the precipitation can be particularly intense. However, understanding the behaviour and controls on atmospheric rivers remains an emergent field.This proposal will support a collaboration between the University of Exeter, where there is considerable expertise in climate dynamics, including understanding the behaviour of extratropical cyclones, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, where work at the forefront of understanding atmospheric rivers is being undertaken. This collaboration will provide access to proprietary atmospheric river datasets held at Scripps and an opportunity to work with researchers to understand and utilise those data. In particular, the influence of large-scale patterns of climate variability and their role in determining the behaviour of atmospheric rivers will be investigated. This is an avenue of research which is yet to be exploited but will be key to determining the response of atmospheric rivers (and their impacts) to a changing climate. This work adds significant value to an on-going NERC funded large-grant led at Exeter ("Robust Spatial Projections of Real-World Climate Change"). That project specifically investigates the physical processes and phenomena associated with future climate change and the present proposal will enhance our understanding of a physical phenomena - atmospheric rivers - which impact extratropical precipitation extremes and how they interact with both the large-scale and with extratropical cyclones. The work envisaged in this proposal will also directly inform a larger grant to be written during the course of the project, providing a platform for long term collaboration between the two groups and ensuring considerable additional value is added to this initial funding.