Coping with El Nino in Tanzania: Differentiated local impacts and household-level responses

应对坦桑尼亚的厄尔尼诺现象：不同的当地影响和家庭层面的应对措施

• 批准号: NE/P004725/1
• 负责人: Aidan Keane
• 金额: $ 32.94万
• 依托单位: University of Edinburgh
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP004725%2F1
• 关键词: Coping; El; Nino; Tanzania; Differentiated

El Niño is a climatic phenomenon linked to warming of the ocean surface in the eastern Pacific that causes unusual weather patterns across many parts of the tropics and further afield. In Tanzania, El Niño events typically lead to heavier rain and flooding in northern parts of the country while southern parts experience less rainfall than normal. These environmental changes can have severe consequences for the livelihoods of local people, leading to crop failure and outbreaks of disease affecting humans and livestock and causing significant hardship and loss of life. "Natural" disasters such as these arise when society fails to respond adequately to changes in the environment, but the role human behaviour plays in shaping the outcomes of environmental change is complex and poorly understood. The impacts of El Niño are most serious in poor rural parts of the world, where households decisions about how to respond are vital if they are to minimise the harm they suffer. These decisions commonly involve changes to their livelihood activities, selling property or increasing their use of natural resources and are often referred to as coping strategies. The set of possible coping strategies a household can use depends upon the resources they can call upon, and these can in turn be affected by their environment and the existence of relevant institutions. Together these three factors - household level differences and institutional and environmental context - are important determinants of local scale impacts of environmental shocks.In this project, we examine how Wildlife Management Areas - a specific form of community-based natural resource management institution - affect the ability of local communities to respond to El Niño. In theory WMAs could lessen El Niño's impacts if they improve the condition or availability of natural resources at key times, or lessen conflict. However, they could also have a negative effect if they impose restrictions on natural resource use that reduce the set of coping strategies a household can call on.We will investigate this interaction using survey data collected from more than 1,200 households across Tanzania, comparing El Niño's impacts in the differing environments of the north and the south and in areas with and without WMAs. In addition, we will examine whether impacts vary between different types of individuals or households within a community (e.g. men and women, richer and poorer households, households relying more or less on natural resources). Our results will provide valuable new insights into the reasons why some households and communities are more seriously affected by environmental change and help communities to become more resilient in the future.

厄尔尼诺是一种与东太平洋海洋表面变暖有关的气候现象，导致热带许多地区和更远地区出现异常天气模式。在坦桑尼亚，厄尔尼诺现象通常会导致该国北方地区的大雨和洪水，而南部地区的降雨量则低于正常水平。这些环境变化可能对当地人民的生计造成严重后果，导致作物歉收和疾病爆发，影响到人类和牲畜，造成重大困难和生命损失。当社会未能对环境变化作出适当反应时，就会发生这类“自然”灾害，但人类行为在影响环境变化结果方面的作用是复杂的，人们对此知之甚少。厄尔尼诺现象对世界上贫穷的农村地区的影响最为严重，如果要尽量减少他们所遭受的伤害，家庭关于如何应对的决定至关重要。这些决定通常涉及改变他们的生计活动、出售财产或增加对自然资源的使用，通常被称为应对战略。一个家庭可以使用的一套可能的应对战略取决于他们可以调用的资源，而这些资源又会受到其环境和相关机构存在的影响。这三个因素-家庭水平的差异以及体制和环境背景-是环境冲击对地方规模影响的重要决定因素。在本项目中，我们研究了野生动物管理区-一种以社区为基础的自然资源管理机构的具体形式-如何影响地方社区应对厄尔尼诺现象的能力。从理论上讲，如果世界气象大会在关键时刻改善自然资源的状况或可用性，或减少冲突，就可以减轻厄尔尼诺的影响。然而，如果它们对自然资源的使用施加限制，减少家庭可以求助的应对策略，也可能产生负面影响。我们将使用从坦桑尼亚1,200多个家庭收集的调查数据来调查这种相互作用，比较厄尔尼诺在北部和南部不同环境中的影响，以及在有和没有WMA的地区。此外，我们还将研究社区内不同类型的个人或家庭（例如男性和女性、富裕家庭和贫困家庭、或多或少依赖自然资源的家庭）之间的影响是否存在差异。我们的研究结果将为一些家庭和社区受到环境变化更严重影响的原因提供有价值的新见解，并帮助社区在未来变得更具弹性。

项目成果

Protected areas reduce deforestation and degradation and enhance woody growth across African woodlands

• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01053-4
• 发表时间: 2023-10
• 期刊: Communications Earth & Environment
• 影响因子: 7.9
• 作者: I. McNicol;Aidan Keane;Neil D. Burgess;Samuel J. Bowers;E. Mitchard;C. Ryan

Intervener trustworthiness predicts cooperation with conservation interventions in an elephant conflict public goods game

干预者可信度预测大象冲突公共物品博弈中与保护干预措施的合作

• DOI: 10.1002/pan3.10134
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: People and Nature
• 影响因子: 6.1
• 作者: Baynham-Herd Z

Impact of Tanzania's Wildlife Management Areas on household wealth

坦桑尼亚野生动物管理区对家庭财富的影响

• DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0458-0
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Nature Sustainability
• 影响因子: 27.6
• 作者: Keane A

Exploring the Intersectionality of Women's Strategies for Coping with Environmental Shocks in Tanzania: Connections with region, socio-economic status, and wildlife management areas

探索坦桑尼亚妇女应对环境冲击战略的交叉性：与地区、社会经济地位和野生动物管理领域的联系

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Frerichs, T

The role of quantitative cross-case analysis in understanding tropical smallholder farmers' adaptive capacity to climate shocks

定量跨案例分析在了解热带小农对气候冲击的适应能力方面的作用

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab59c8
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Beauchamp E