Coping with El Nino in Tanzania: Differentiated local impacts and household-level responses

厄尔尼诺Niño是一种气候现象，与东太平洋海洋表面变暖有关，导致热带地区和更远地区的许多地区出现不寻常的天气模式。在坦桑尼亚，厄尔尼诺Niño事件通常会导致该国北部地区的暴雨和洪水，而南部地区的降雨量则比正常情况少。这些环境变化可能对当地人民的生计造成严重后果，导致作物歉收，爆发影响人类和牲畜的疾病，造成重大困难和生命损失。当社会未能对环境变化作出充分反应时，诸如此类的“自然”灾害就会出现，但是人类行为在形成环境变化结果方面所起的作用是复杂的，而且人们对其知之甚少。El Niño的影响在世界上贫穷的农村地区最为严重，在那里，家庭决定如何应对是至关重要的，如果他们想要最大限度地减少他们所遭受的伤害。这些决定通常涉及改变生计活动、出售财产或增加对自然资源的利用，通常被称为应对战略。一个家庭可以使用的一套可能的应对策略取决于他们可以调用的资源，而这些资源反过来又受到其环境和相关机构的存在的影响。这三个因素- -家庭水平差异以及体制和环境背景- -是环境冲击的地方规模影响的重要决定因素。在本项目中，我们研究了野生动物管理区（一种以社区为基础的自然资源管理机构）如何影响当地社区应对El Niño的能力。理论上，如果wma在关键时刻改善自然资源的条件或可用性，或减少冲突，就可以减轻El Niño的影响。然而，如果它们对自然资源的使用施加限制，减少了一个家庭可以使用的一套应对策略，它们也可能产生负面影响。我们将利用从坦桑尼亚1200多个家庭收集的调查数据来调查这种相互作用，比较El Niño在北部和南部不同环境以及有和没有wma的地区的影响。此外，我们将研究一个社区内不同类型的个人或家庭（例如，男性和女性、富裕家庭和贫困家庭、或多或少依赖自然资源的家庭）之间的影响是否有所不同。我们的研究结果将为一些家庭和社区受环境变化影响更严重的原因提供有价值的新见解，并帮助社区在未来变得更有弹性。

El Niño is a climatic phenomenon linked to warming of the ocean surface in the eastern Pacific that causes unusual weather patterns across many parts of the tropics and further afield. In Tanzania, El Niño events typically lead to heavier rain and flooding in northern parts of the country while southern parts experience less rainfall than normal. These environmental changes can have severe consequences for the livelihoods of local people, leading to crop failure and outbreaks of disease affecting humans and livestock and causing significant hardship and loss of life. "Natural" disasters such as these arise when society fails to respond adequately to changes in the environment, but the role human behaviour plays in shaping the outcomes of environmental change is complex and poorly understood. The impacts of El Niño are most serious in poor rural parts of the world, where households decisions about how to respond are vital if they are to minimise the harm they suffer. These decisions commonly involve changes to their livelihood activities, selling property or increasing their use of natural resources and are often referred to as coping strategies. The set of possible coping strategies a household can use depends upon the resources they can call upon, and these can in turn be affected by their environment and the existence of relevant institutions. Together these three factors - household level differences and institutional and environmental context - are important determinants of local scale impacts of environmental shocks.In this project, we examine how Wildlife Management Areas - a specific form of community-based natural resource management institution - affect the ability of local communities to respond to El Niño. In theory WMAs could lessen El Niño's impacts if they improve the condition or availability of natural resources at key times, or lessen conflict. However, they could also have a negative effect if they impose restrictions on natural resource use that reduce the set of coping strategies a household can call on.We will investigate this interaction using survey data collected from more than 1,200 households across Tanzania, comparing El Niño's impacts in the differing environments of the north and the south and in areas with and without WMAs. In addition, we will examine whether impacts vary between different types of individuals or households within a community (e.g. men and women, richer and poorer households, households relying more or less on natural resources). Our results will provide valuable new insights into the reasons why some households and communities are more seriously affected by environmental change and help communities to become more resilient in the future.