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Decision support framework to incorporate river bank stability in pipeline crossing risk assessment

将河岸稳定性纳入管道穿越风险评估的决策支持框架

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P008984/1
负责人：
Richard David Williams
金额：
$ 15.13万
依托单位：
University of Glasgow
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP008984%2F1
关键词：
Decision support framework incorporate river

项目摘要

Scottish Water has identified the need to develop their approach to dealing with uncertainty when assessing the risk of river erosion at pipeline crossings. In particular, there is a need to develop and pilot methods that can use data from initial asset inspections to quantify risks and uncertainties in making decisions on where to invest additional resources in more detailed inspections, for assets deemed to be at greater risk from river bank erosion or scour around bridge abutments. This challenge arises from the reality that, over the past 10-15 years, pipeline crossing inspections have been undertaken in an ad-hoc manner. The aim of this proposal is, therefore, to develop a decision support framework to incorporate river bank stability in pipeline crossing risk assessment. This will be used immediately during 2016 in Scottish Water's first, national-scale pipeline bridge asset inspection programme. The specific objectives are to: (i) evaluate uncertainty in the existing low-cost app-based inspection database that is used to screening risk; (ii) assess the uncertainty that arises from the initial desk-based phase of river bank stability assessment; (iii) develop a pipeline crossing scour assessment framework for analysing river bank stability at the screening phase and determining appropriate analysis for the initial assessment phase; and (iv) recursively test the risk assessment framework. To address these objectives there will be three methodological phases, results from which will be progressively reported. First, a sample of the pipeline crossings will be re-surveyed using a replicate inspection app. Results will enable evaluation of uncertainties in data capture and their consequences for river stability decision making at the screening stage of risk management. Second, uncertainty in assessing bank erosion will be assessed considering data from the asset inspection app, Google Earth imagery, high-resolution aerial images commissioned by Scottish Water, and legacy LiDAR acquired by the Scottish Government. Evidence of river instability will be mapped from imagery. Change will be quantified using appropriate techniques to represent errors in digitising and topographic change analysis. Finally, results will be used to produce a framework to: (i) characterise risk during screening; and (ii) determine the most appropriate forms of desk based analysis for initial risk assessment. The framework will include a multi-criteria process for calculating risk after the initial assessment phase to determine whether a more detailed assessment phase is necessary and, if so, necessary actions. This framework will be tested at a further set of 20 sites. Project outputs will be operationalised and used to improve decision making. App-based data capture will be improved with enhanced data fields and training material for asset inspectors. Results from evaluating uncertainty in data and analysis will be input to a multi-criteria scoring framework that will improve decision making at the screening and initial assessment stages and will thus enable scarce resources to be prioritised for desk-based river bank stability analyses. The framework will be used in the current drinking water pipeline crossing inspection programme and will also be of value for a future waste water pipeline crossing inspection programme. The project will last 12 months which will enable evaluation of uncertainty in a sufficiently large sample of data, analysis approaches and sites. The total cost (80% FEC) of the project is £89,707. This includes staff costs for Williams and Hoey, 9 months research assistant time, computer hardware, and travel.

苏格兰水务公司已经确定，在评估管道交叉口的河流侵蚀风险时，有必要制定处理不确定性的方法。特别是，有必要开发和试点的方法，可以使用从初始资产检查的数据，量化风险和不确定性，在决策的地方投资更多的资源，更详细的检查，资产被认为是在更大的风险，从河岸侵蚀或冲刷周围的桥梁桥台。这一挑战源于这样一个现实，即在过去10-15年中，管道穿越检查一直是以临时方式进行的。因此，本提案的目的是制定一个决策支持框架，将河岸稳定性纳入管道穿越风险评估。这将在2016年立即用于苏格兰水务公司的第一个全国规模的管道桥梁资产检查计划。具体目标是：（一）评估用于筛选风险的现有低成本基于应用程序的检查数据库中的不确定性;（二）评估河岸稳定性评估初始桌面阶段产生的不确定性;（三）开发管道穿越冲刷评估框架，用于在筛选阶段分析河岸稳定性，并确定初始评估阶段的适当分析;及（iv）递归地测试风险评估框架。为实现这些目标，将分三个方法阶段，逐步报告其结果。首先，将使用重复检查应用程序对管道穿越点的样本进行重新调查。结果将有助于评估数据采集的不确定性及其对风险管理筛选阶段河流稳定性决策的影响。其次，评估银行侵蚀的不确定性将考虑来自资产检查应用程序，谷歌地球图像，苏格兰水务公司委托的高分辨率航空图像以及苏格兰政府获得的传统激光雷达的数据。河流不稳定的证据将从图像中绘制出来。将使用适当的技术对变化进行量化，以表示数字化和地形变化分析中的错误。最后，结果将用于制定一个框架，以便：（一）在筛选期间识别风险;（二）确定初步风险评估的最适当案头分析形式。该框架将包括一个多标准流程，用于在初始评估阶段后计算风险，以确定是否需要更详细的评估阶段，如果需要，则需要采取必要的行动。这一框架将在另外20个地点进行测试。项目产出将付诸实施，并用于改进决策。将改进基于应用程序的数据采集，增强数据字段，并为资产检查员提供培训材料。评估数据和分析的不确定性的结果将输入到多标准评分框架，该框架将改善筛选和初始评估阶段的决策，从而使稀缺资源能够优先用于基于桌面的河岸稳定性分析。该框架将用于目前的饮用水管道交叉检查方案，也将对未来的废水管道交叉检查方案具有价值。该项目将持续12个月，以便能够在足够大的数据样本、分析方法和地点中评估不确定性。该项目的总成本（80% FEC）为89，707英镑。这包括威廉姆斯和霍伊的工作人员费用、9个月的研究助理时间、计算机硬件和差旅费。