Synthesising Unprecedented Coastal Conditions: Extreme Storm Surges (SUCCESS)

综合前所未有的海岸条件：极端风暴潮（成功）

• 批准号: NE/P009158/1
• 负责人: Kevin Horsburgh
• 金额: $ 13.69万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP009158%2F1
• 关键词: Synthesising; Unprecedented; Coastal; Conditions; Extreme

This project will engage with two project partners (Environment Agency and EDF energy) with significant assets and infrastructure at risk from extreme storm surges. For both partners this project will deliver understanding of the impacts of plausible extreme coastal surge and wave events on the function, resilience, design and standard of protection of key infrastructure. It will provide them and other Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Authorities with an improved level of understanding around current and future standards of protection. For key coastal regions - determined with our partners - we will synthesise a number of "black swan" storm surges - events that have not been observed but that are physically plausible. This has never previously been done for extra-tropical weather systems. It is important to sample storminess beyond the observed range of natural variability since our record of severe storm surges is probably too short (we have only had two extreme North Sea storm surges in 60 years - in 1953 and 2013). We will do this by analysing and grouping European storm systems from reanalysis data, and then perturbing the atmospheric systems using a well tried and tested forecasting tool (made available to us by the Met Office). The modified wind and pressure fields will drive coupled storm surge and wave models to create the plausible worst cases. Our work will provide a credible alternative for worst case storm surges that complements the H++ scenarios obtained from climate models alone. The results of the project will assist our project partners and other stakeholders in planning and mitigation, the siting and protection of coastal infrastructure, and long term investment decisions. Our deliverables will take the form of: 2-D data fields for storm surges and waves along the affected regions (determined with the partners); new calculations of extreme value statistics for those regions; site-by-site analyses of tide/surge/wave combinations that then feed into the downstream modelling of the two partners. For the Environment Agency, the new data would feed into National and / or local flood risk and forecasting models to help understand what impacts would be associated with such events to inform investment decisions and incident preparedness. The outputs would also be used both to quality control the current best-practice statistical methods for estimation of extreme sea levels and extend those. For EDF Energy, the new data will feed into their current statistical methodology for estimating return levels of extreme sea levels and provide information that could be used in strategic decisions on probable maximum extremes and lower bounds on the 10,000-year level for different natural hazards.

该项目将与两个项目合作伙伴（环境署和EDF能源）合作，这些合作伙伴的重要资产和基础设施面临极端风暴潮的风险。对于双方来说，该项目将提供对可能的极端海岸浪涌和波浪事件对关键基础设施的功能，恢复力，设计和保护标准的影响的理解。它将为他们和其他洪水和海岸侵蚀风险管理当局提供对当前和未来保护标准的更好理解。对于与我们的合作伙伴一起确定的关键沿海地区，我们将综合一些“黑天鹅”风暴潮-尚未观察到但物理上合理的事件。以前从未对热带以外的天气系统这样做过。重要的是要在观察到的自然变率范围之外对风暴进行采样，因为我们对严重风暴潮的记录可能太短了（60年来我们只有两次极端的北海风暴潮--1953年和2013年）。我们将通过从再分析数据中分析和分组欧洲风暴系统来做到这一点，然后使用一个久经考验的预测工具（由气象局提供给我们）来扰动大气系统。修改后的风和压力场将驱动耦合的风暴潮和波浪模型，以创建合理的最坏情况。我们的工作将为最坏情况下的风暴潮提供一个可靠的替代方案，补充单独从气候模型中获得的H++情景。该项目的结果将有助于我们的项目合作伙伴和其他利益相关者在规划和缓解，选址和沿海基础设施的保护，以及长期投资决策。我们的交付成果将采取以下形式：（与合作伙伴共同确定的）受影响地区风暴潮和波浪沿着的二维数据场;这些地区极值统计的新计算;对潮汐/浪涌/波浪组合进行逐点分析，然后将其输入两个合作伙伴的下游建模。对于环境署来说，新数据将输入国家和/或地方洪水风险和预测模型，以帮助了解此类事件的影响，从而为投资决策和事故准备提供信息。这些产出还将用于对目前估计极端海平面的最佳做法统计方法进行质量控制，并加以推广。对于EDF Energy来说，新数据将被纳入其目前的统计方法，用于估计极端海平面的回归水平，并提供可用于战略决策的信息，这些信息可用于不同自然灾害的可能最大极端和10，000年水平下限。

项目成果

Radiational tides: their double-counting in storm surge forecasts and contribution to the Highest Astronomical Tide

辐射潮汐：风暴潮预报中的重复计算及其对最高天文潮汐的贡献

• DOI: 10.5194/os-14-1057-2018
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Ocean Science
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Williams J

The Joint IOC (of UNESCO) and WMO Collaborative Effort for Met-Ocean Services

IOC（教科文组织）和 WMO 气象海洋服务联合合作

• DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00410
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Frontiers in Marine Science
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Pinardi N

"Grey swan" storm surges pose a greater coastal flood hazard than climate change

• DOI: 10.1007/s10236-021-01453-0
• 发表时间: 2021-05-07
• 期刊: OCEAN DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 2.3
• 作者: Horsburgh, Kevin;Haigh, Ivan D.;Byrne, David
• 通讯作者: Byrne, David

The Tides They Are A‐Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications

• DOI: 10.1029/2018rg000636
• 发表时间: 2020-03
• 期刊: Reviews of Geophysics
• 影响因子: 25.2
• 作者: I. Haigh;Mark D. Pickering;J. Green;B. Arbic;A. Arns;S. Dangendorf;D. Hill;K. Horsburgh;T. Howard;D. Idier;D. Jay;Leon Jänicke;S. Lee;Malte Müller;M. Schindelegger;S. Talke;S. Wilmes;P. Woodworth

Variational data assimilation of sea surface height into a regional storm surge model: Benefits and limitations

海面高度的变分数据同化到区域风暴潮模型中：优点和局限性

• DOI: 10.1080/1755876x.2021.1884405
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Operational Oceanography
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Byrne D