Statistical Review of Some Aspects of the 2016 UK National Risk Assessment

2016年英国国家风险评估部分方面的统计回顾

• 批准号: NE/P013155/1
• 负责人: Jonathan Rougier
• 金额: $ 4.7万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP013155%2F1
• 关键词: Statistical; Review; Some; Aspects; 2016

The UK National Risk Assessment (NRA) is a classified biennial report which provides an assessment of the risks of civil emergencies in the UK over the next five years. The NRA is compiled by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS) of the Cabinet Office, in conjunction with the Government Office for Science (GO-Science). The NRA is used by emergency planners and responders to assess and meet their obligations under the Civil Contingencies Act (2004). As such, it is a critical tool for protecting people and economic prosperity in the UK.This Internship proposal is to place Jonathan Rougier, Professor of Statistical Science at the University of Bristol, with the CCS and GO-Science for the period Oct 2016 through Jan 2017. Many of the major risks identified by the NRA arise from natural hazards, such as floods, storms, long hot and cold spells, droughts, and volcanic eruptions. Prof Rougier is an expert on uncertainty and risk assessment for natural hazards, and was the lead editor of Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural hazards (CUP, 2013, 588 pages), to which he also contributed three chapters.While based at the CCS, Prof Rougier will review the risk assessment for for some of the natural hazards in the 2016 NRA, which is due out in August. Additionally, he will consider wider issues in the use of Reasonable Worst Case as a framework for national-scale risk assessment, and explore opportunities for incremental improvements in current practice. Finally, he will be on-hand to offer day-to-day advice on uncertainty and risk assessment across the full range of risks considered in the NRA.Prof Rougier will distribute his findings internally through the restricted website ResilienceDirect, and also in articles published on the University of Bristol's Cabot Institute blog, which currently has about 6,000 readers a month. It is hoped that this Internship will leave a legacy of improved practice in uncertainty and risk assessment at the CCS and GO-Science, and pave the way for a closer relationship between these two organisations and the University of Bristol.

英国国家风险评估(NRA)是一份两年一次的机密报告，对未来五年英国国内突发事件的风险进行评估。NRA由内阁府民事应急秘书处(CCS)与政府科学办公室(GO-Science)共同编制。应急规划者和响应者使用《全国应急条例》来评估和履行《民事应急法案》(2004年)规定的义务。因此，它是保护英国人民和经济繁荣的关键工具。这份实习提案是为了让布里斯托尔大学统计科学教授乔纳森·鲁吉尔在2016年10月至2017年1月期间在CCS和Go-Science工作。NRA确定的许多主要风险来自自然灾害，如洪水、风暴、长时间的冷热天气、干旱和火山喷发。鲁吉尔教授是自然灾害的不确定性和风险评估方面的专家，也是《自然灾害的风险和不确定性评估》(CUP，2013,588页)的主编，他还为这本书贡献了三章。在CCS工作期间，鲁吉尔教授将审查2016年NRA中一些自然灾害的风险评估，该报告定于8月发布。此外，他还将考虑使用合理的最坏情况作为国家范围风险评估框架的更广泛问题，并探索在当前做法中逐步改进的机会。最后，他将就NRA所考虑的所有风险的不确定性和风险评估提供日常建议。鲁吉尔教授将通过受限网站ResilienceDirect内部发布他的发现，也将以发表在布里斯托尔大学卡伯特研究所博客上的文章的形式发布，该博客目前每月约有6000名读者。希望这次实习将在CCS和GO-Science留下改进不确定性和风险评估实践的遗产，并为这两个组织和布里斯托尔大学之间更紧密的关系铺平道路。

项目成果

The global magnitude-frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions

大型火山喷发的全球震级-频率关系

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2017.11.015
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Earth and Planetary Science Letters
• 影响因子: 5.3
• 作者: Rougier J

Confidence in Risk Assessments

对风险评估的信心

• DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12445
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Statistics in Society
• 作者: Rougier J

Regional and global under-recording of large explosive eruptions in the last 1000 years

过去 1000 年来区域和全球大规模爆发的记录不足

• DOI: 10.1186/s13617-017-0070-9
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Journal of Applied Volcanology
• 作者: Rougier J