The Aerosol-Cloud Uncertainty REduction project (A-CURE)

气溶胶云不确定性降低项目 (A-CURE)

• 批准号: NE/P013406/1
• 负责人: Kenneth Carslaw
• 金额: $ 82.51万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP013406%2F1
• 关键词: Aerosol; Cloud; Uncertainty; REduction; project

A-CURE tackles one of the most challenging and persistent problems in atmospheric science - to understand and quantify how changes in aerosol particles caused by human activities affect climate. Emissions of aerosol particles to the atmosphere through industrial activity, transport and combustion of waste have increased the amount of solar radiation reflected by the Earth, which has caused a cooling effect that partly counteracts the warming effect of greenhouse gases. The magnitude of the so-called aerosol radiative forcing is highly uncertain over the industrial period. According to the latest intergovernmental panel (IPCC) assessment, the global mean radiative forcing of climate caused by aerosol emissions over the industrial period lies between 0 and -2 W m-2 compared to a much better understood and tighter constrained forcing of 1.4 W m-2 to 2.2 W m-2 due to CO2 emissions. This large uncertainty has persisted through all IPCC assessments since 1996 and significantly limits our confidence in global climate change projections. The aerosol uncertainty therefore limits our ability to define strategies for reaching a 1.5 or 2oC target for global mean temperature increase.A-CURE aims to reduce the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing through the most comprehensive ever synthesis of aerosol, cloud and atmospheric radiation measurements combined with innovative ways to analyse global model uncertainty. The overall approach will be to produce a large set of model simulations that spans the uncertainty range of the model input parameters. Advanced statistical methods will then be used to generate essentially millions of model simulations that enable the full uncertainty of the model to be explored. The spread of these simulations will then be narrowed by comparing the simulated aerosols and clouds against extensive atmospheric measurements. Following A-CURE, improved estimates of aerosol forcing on regional and global scales will enable substantial improvements in our understanding of historical climate, climate sensitivity and climate projections. We will use the improved climate model with narrowed uncertainty to determine the implications for reaching either a 1.5 or 2oC target for global mean temperature increase.

A-CURE 解决了大气科学中最具挑战性和持续性的问题之一 - 了解和量化人类活动引起的气溶胶颗粒的变化如何影响气候。通过工业活动、废物运输和燃烧向大气中排放气溶胶颗粒，增加了地球反射的太阳辐射量，从而产生了降温效应，部分抵消了温室气体造成的变暖效应。所谓的气溶胶辐射强迫的大小在工业时期是高度不确定的。根据最新的政府间专门委员会 (IPCC) 评估，工业时期气溶胶排放造成的全球平均气候辐射强迫在 0 至 -2 W m-2 之间，而人们更容易理解和严格限制的二氧化碳排放强迫为 1.4 W m-2 至 2.2 W m-2。这种巨大的不确定性在 1996 年以来的所有 IPCC 评估中一直存在，并极大地限制了我们对全球气候变化预测的信心。因此，气溶胶的不确定性限制了我们制定实现全球平均气温升高 1.5 或 2oC 目标的策略的能力。A-CURE 旨在通过最全面的气溶胶、云和大气辐射测量综合，结合分析全球模型不确定性的创新方法，减少气溶胶辐射强迫的不确定性。总体方法将是生成大量模型模拟，涵盖模型输入参数的不确定性范围。然后，将使用先进的统计方法来生成数百万个模型模拟，从而能够探索模型的全部不确定性。然后，通过将模拟的气溶胶和云与广泛的大气测量进行比较，这些模拟的范围将缩小。继 A-CURE 之后，改进对区域和全球尺度气溶胶强迫的估计将使我们对历史气候、气候敏感性和气候预测的理解得到实质性改善。我们将使用不确定性较小的改进气候模型来确定实现全球平均气温上升 1.5 或 2 摄氏度目标的影响。

项目成果

Source attribution of cloud condensation nuclei and their impact on stratocumulus clouds and radiation in the south-eastern Atlantic

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-2022-43
• 发表时间: 2022-01
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: H. Che;P. Stier;D. Watson‐Parris;H. Gordon;L. Deaconu

Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates

模型和观测气溶胶辐射强迫估计惊人的相似

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-2019-533
• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Gryspeerdt E

Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates.

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-613-2020
• 发表时间: 2020-01
• 期刊: Atmospheric chemistry and physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Gryspeerdt E;Mülmenstädt J;Gettelman A;Malavelle FF;Morrison H;Neubauer D;Partridge DG;Stier P;Takemura T;Wang H;Wang M;Zhang K
• 通讯作者: Zhang K

Comments on "Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing"

对“重新思考气溶胶辐射强迫下限”的评论

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-17-0369.1
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Booth B

Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing.

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-22-641-2022
• 发表时间: 2022-01
• 期刊: Atmospheric chemistry and physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Christensen MW;Gettelman A;Cermak J;Dagan G;Diamond M;Douglas A;Feingold G;Glassmeier F;Goren T;Grosvenor DP;Gryspeerdt E;Kahn R;Li Z;Ma PL;Malavelle F;McCoy IL;McCoy DT;McFarquhar G;Mülmenstädt J;Pal S;Possner A;Povey A;Quaas J;Rosenfeld D;Schmidt A;Schrödner R;Sorooshian A;Stier P;Toll V;Watson-Parris D;Wood R;Yang M;Yuan T
• 通讯作者: Yuan T