Implications of the Paris Agreement for Biodiversity and Conservation Planning (IMPALA)

《巴黎生物多样性和保护规划协定》(IMPALA) 的影响

• 批准号: NE/P014992/1
• 负责人: Rachel Warren
• 金额: $ 12.85万
• 依托单位: University of East Anglia
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP014992%2F1
• 关键词: Implications; Paris; Agreement; Biodiversity; Conservation

Climate change creates risks to biodiversity, in particular by changing the climate in which species live, and making it unsuitable for them to continue to live there. In December 2014, under the United Nations Paris Agreement countries agreed to 'pursue efforts to ...limit the temperature increase to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels'. IMPALA seeks to understand these risks to biodiversity arising in a future world in which humans limit climate change to 1.5C warming compared to pre-industrial times, and to compare this with the situation when there is 2C warming (hereafter referred to as 1.5/2C). It seeks understand the relative risks both globally, and at the regional scale. Species also face a challenge in being able to track their preferred climate space across a landscape, both in terms of the speed of movement required and in dealing with natural and/or manmade obstacles to movement. Several previous studies have projected extensive range loss and increased extinction risks across large fractions of species globally or regionally due to climate change e.g. amongst 50,000 species studied, 57+/-5% of plants and 34+/-7% of animals are projected to lose over half their climatic range for a warming of approximately 3.6C above pre-industrial levels. But what difference does 0.5C make? Is there really much difference between 1.5C and 2C of warming when it comes to terrestrial biodiversity? Examination of the large-scale potential changes in climatic ranges of 80,000 species at 2C versus 2.5C suggests that there may be a large difference, at least in some parts of the world. These differences have the potential to put much of the past investment in conservation at risk. This study will look at the areas where it makes the most difference to constrain warming to 1.5 versus 2C, looking specifically at Global Protected Areas, and key conservation regions such as biodiversity hotspots. It will identify which Protected Areas are most, and least, at risk from biodiversity changes at 1.5 vs. 2C, and where corridors between protected areas would do the most good. IMPALA is designed to inform decision makers in the UK government and also within environmental NGOs, in particular World Wildlife Fund-UK. Environmental NGOs are interested in conservation planning, that is deciding which areas of the world need to be brought into the protected area network, or protected by other means such as working with local people to protect habitats for species. Since it is not possible to protect all natural ecosystems, NGOs and Governments need to prioritise, and climate change will affect that prioritisation by changing the places where species can live. IMPALA will inform WWF-UK, other NGOs, and Governments whether the existing protected area system is robust to warming of 1.5/2C, which areas are most at risk, and which areas act as refuges where species can still live after 1.5/2C global warming has occurred. IMPALA considers how species try to move to track climate change, and will also identify places that need to be protected to enable species to move and colonize new areas in response to climate change. Complicating the efforts to allow ecosystems (and biodiversity) to adapt naturally to climate change may be the efforts needed to hold climate change to 1.5C of warming. Many proposals to limit warming to 1.5 and 2C of warming require large areas to be converted to bioenergy crops. There is the risk that it may be necessary to convert large areas of primary/secondary forest and other ecosystems to bioenergy crops, so that agricultural land can continue to grow food. As habitat loss is a major factor in biodiversity loss, then it might potentially be worse for biodiversity at 1.5C warming than 2C warming. This study will look for win-win solutions for biodiversity and mitigation in order to promote Article 2 compliant mitigation - that is, mitigation that hinders neither ecosystems from adapting naturally and the production of food.

气候变化给生物多样性带来了风险，特别是改变了物种生存的气候，使它们不适合继续生活在那里。 2014年12月，根据联合国《巴黎协定》，各国同意“继续努力……将气温升高限制在工业化前水平以上1.5摄氏度以内”。 IMPALA 试图了解在未来世界中，人类将气候变化限制在比工业化前时期升温 1.5 摄氏度的未来世界中，生物多样性面临的这些风险，并将其与升温 2 摄氏度（以下简称 1.5/2 摄氏度）时的情况进行比较。它寻求了解全球和区域范围内的相对风险。物种还面临着能够在整个景观中跟踪其偏好的气候空间的挑战，无论是在所需的移动速度方面还是在处理自然和/或人为的移动障碍方面。之前的几项研究预测，由于气候变化，全球或区域内大部分物种的活动范围将大幅缩小，灭绝风险也会增加。在研究的 50,000 个物种中，预计 57+/-5% 的植物和 34+/-7% 的动物将失去一半以上的气候范围，因为气温比工业化前水平高出约 3.6 摄氏度。但 0.5C 有什么区别呢？就陆地生物多样性而言，变暖1.5摄氏度和2摄氏度之间真的有很大区别吗？对 2C 与 2.5C 下 80,000 个物种的气候范围的大规模潜在变化进行的检查表明，至少在世界某些地区可能存在很大差异。这些差异有可能使过去的大部分保护投资面临风险。这项研究将着眼于将升温限制在 1.5 摄氏度与 2 摄氏度之间影响最大​​的地区，特别关注全球保护区和生物多样性热点等关键保护区。它将确定哪些保护区在 1.5 与 2C 的情况下面临的生物多样性变化风险最大和最小，以及保护区之间的走廊在哪些地方效果最好。 IMPALA 旨在为英国政府以及环境非政府组织（特别是英国世界自然基金会）的决策者提供信息。环保非政府组织对保护规划感兴趣，即决定世界上的哪些地区需要纳入保护区网络，或通过其他方式进行保护，例如与当地人合作保护物种栖息地。由于不可能保护所有自然生态系统，非政府组织和政府需要确定优先顺序，而气候变化将通过改变物种可以生存的地方来影响优先顺序。 IMPALA 将告知 WWF-UK、其他非政府组织和各国政府，现有的保护区系统是否能够抵御 1.5/2C 的变暖，哪些地区面临的风险最大，以及哪些区域可以作为全球变暖 1.5/2C 后物种仍能生存的避难所。 IMPALA 考虑物种如何尝试移动以跟踪气候变化，还将确定需要保护的地方，以使物种能够移动和定居新地区以应对气候变化。让生态系统（和生物多样性）自然适应气候变化的努力变得更加复杂，可能是将气候变化控制在1.5摄氏度以内所需的努力。许多将升温限制在 1.5 到 2 摄氏度的提案要求大面积种植生物能源作物。存在的风险是，可能有必要将大面积的原始/次生林和其他生态系统转变为生物能源作物，以便农业用地可以继续种植粮食。由于栖息地丧失是生物多样性丧失的一个主要因素，因此升温 1.5 摄氏度对生物多样性的影响可能比升温 2 摄氏度更糟糕。本研究将寻找生物多样性和减缓的双赢解决方案，以促进符合第 2 条的减缓——即既不妨碍生态系统自然适应也不妨碍粮食生产的减缓。

项目成果

Impacts on terrestrial biodiversity of moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target.

• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0456
• 发表时间: 2018-05-13
• 期刊: Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
• 作者: Smith P;Price J;Molotoks A;Warren R;Malhi Y
• 通讯作者: Malhi Y

The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2158-6
• 发表时间: 2018-03
• 期刊: Climatic Change
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: R. Warren;J. Price;J. VanderWal;S. Cornelius;H. Sohl

Biodiversity losses associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in six countries

全球变暖使六个国家的生物多样性损失比工业化前水平高 1.5 至 4°C

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03666-2
• 发表时间: 2024
• 期刊: Climatic Change
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Price J

Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254879
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: PloS one
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Jenkins RLM;Warren RF;Price JT
• 通讯作者: Price JT

Assessing the potential risks of climate change on the natural capital of six countries resulting from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels

评估全球变暖比工业化前水平高1.5至4°C导致气候变化对六个国家自然资本的潜在风险

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03650-w
• 发表时间: 2024
• 期刊: Climatic Change
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Price J