Impacts and Risk Assessment to better inform Resilience Planning (IMPRES)

影响和风险评估，以更好地为复原力规划 (IMPRES) 提供信息

• 批准号: NE/S017267/1
• 负责人: Rachel Warren
• 金额: $ 30.56万
• 依托单位: University of East Anglia
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS017267%2F1
• 关键词: Impacts; Risk; Assessment; better; inform

The Met Office, Departments of Food, Environment and Rural Affairs and Business, Enterprise and Industry, and the Environment Agency have issued a document on the perceived user needs for derived products from UKCP18. "Many decision makers will need information about the impacts of the climate changes that are described in the new projections for their specific areas or sectors of interest, for example, future flood or heat stress risk." Other derived products include water stress, drought and vegetation growth. To meet these needs the above agencies suggested several approaches including: 1) Updating an existing product with UKCP18 information. They specifically suggest investigating whether previous research is still valid (in our case with CMIP5 rather than specifically with UKCP09); and 2) Determine whether "specific assessments will need to be undertaken" to "incorporate consideration of UKCP18 into existing or planned research...scope what work is needed for those topics where a risk is identified but the product need is poorly defined." Furthermore, the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) must be produced by Government by January 2022. To inform the report, the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has asked the Climate Change Committee's (CCC's) Adaptation Committee to prepare an independent evidence report by summer 2021. This report will require a literature review of recent relevant research on climate change risks to the UK's natural environment, infrastructure, business, people, and international dimensions of the issue. IMPRES is designed to consider these currently identified needs. IMPRES is designed to use existing CMIP5 driven model output to rapidly scope the risks of climate change on a wide-variety of impacts to identify where in the UK, and at what temperatures these occur. IMPRES speaks directly to inform user needs by rapidly providing new estimates of risks, including heat stress to people and livestock, flood risk, water security and agriculture, biodiversity and natural capital, and the UK economy. IMPRES then goes further by using both of the approaches above - existing data consideration, and scope the work necessary to use the UKCP18 data when needed. We have access to two sets of climate change projections, an existing dataset derived by the Tyndall Centre from global circulation models (GCMs) and a more detailed dataset recently released with greater spatial and temporal detail in the UK region, known as UKCP18. Previous assessments of climate-change related risk in the UK have tended to use disparate socioeconomic and climate scenarios, and our project will be ground-breaking in using a harmonised set of scenarios to project future levels of risk across human and natural systems in the UK in a spatially explicit fashion. We begin by using the existing climate dataset to project the risks, and then go on to prepare to do so with the UKCP18 data. Since processing and utilising the UKCP18 in full would be a large amount of work beyond the scope of this project, we instead perform a scoping study to lay out a work plan for doing this, and then go on to implement a very small part of this work plan to provide an initial assessment of risks from heat stress (to people and livestock) and drought. Throughout, we engage with stakeholders by disseminating our findings to them, and by holding workshops or bilateral meetings to identify their needs, so that we can factor these in to our work plan. In particular, these needs might relate to the metrics we use to describe levels of risk, or to the socioeconomic scenarios that we will explore. The first part of our project uses existing published risk assessment methodologies and complements well some existing work that we are performing which is to assess risks in some other (non-UK) countries.

英国气象局、食品、环境和农村事务部以及商业、企业和工业部以及环境局发布了一份关于用户对 UKCP18 衍生产品的感知需求的文件。 “许多决策者需要有关气候变化影响的信息，这些信息在他们感兴趣的特定领域或部门的新预测中有所描述，例如未来的洪水或热应激风险。”其他衍生产品包括水分胁迫、干旱和植被生长。为了满足这些需求，上述机构提出了几种方法，包括：1）使用 UKCP18 信息更新现有产品。他们特别建议调查以前的研究是否仍然有效（在我们的案例中是 CMIP5，而不是专门针对 UKCP09）； 2) 确定是否需要“进行具体评估”，以“将 UKCP18 的考虑纳入现有或计划的研究中……确定那些已识别风险但产品需求定义不明确的主题需要开展哪些工作。” 此外，政府必须在 2022 年 1 月之前完成第三次英国气候变化风险评估 (CCRA3)。为了为该报告提供信息，环境、食品和农村事务部已要求气候变化委员会 (CCC) 适应委员会在 2021 年夏季之前准备一份独立证据报告。该报告将要求对最近有关气候变化对英国自然环境、基础设施、商业、人民和国际影响的相关研究进行文献综述。 的问题。 IMPRES 旨在考虑当前确定的这些需求。 IMPRES 旨在使用现有的 CMIP5 驱动模型输出来快速确定气候变化风险的各种影响范围，以确定这些影响发生在英国的地点以及温度。 IMPRES 通过快速提供新的风险估计来直接告知用户需求，这些风险包括人类和牲畜的热应激、洪水风险、水安全和农业、生物多样性和自然资本以及英国经济。然后，IMPRES 进一步使用上述两种方法 - 考虑现有数据，并在需要时确定使用 UKCP18 数据所需的工作范围。我们可以访问两组气候变化预测，一个是廷德尔中心根据全球环流模型 (GCM) 得出的现有数据集，另一个是最近在英国地区发布的更详细的数据集，其中包含更详细的空间和时间细节，称为 UKCP18。之前对英国气候变化相关风险的评估倾向于使用不同的社会经济和气候情景，而我们的项目将具有开创性，使用一套统一的情景以空间明确的方式预测英国人类和自然系统未来的风险水平。我们首先使用现有的气候数据集来预测风险，然后继续准备使用 UKCP18 数据来预测风险。由于全面处理和利用 UKCP18 的工作量很大，超出了本项目的范围，因此我们进行了范围界定研究，制定了一项工作计划，然后继续实施该工作计划的一小部分，以对热应激（对人和牲畜）和干旱的风险进行初步评估。在整个过程中，我们通过向利益相关者传播我们的研究结果，并通过举办研讨会或双边会议来确定他们的需求来与他们互动，以便我们可以将这些需求纳入我们的工作计划中。特别是，这些需求可能与我们用来描述风险水平的指标有关，或者与我们将探索的社会经济情景有关。我们项目的第一部分使用现有已发布的风险评估方法，并很好地补充了我们正在执行的一些现有工作，即评估其他一些（非英国）国家的风险。

项目成果

Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc4ad
• 发表时间: 2020-10
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Alan T. Kennedy-Asser;Oliver Andrews;D. Mitchell;R. Warren

Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

英国气候预测 (UKCP18) 中与热应激相关的预计风险

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac541a
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Kennedy-Asser A

The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally.

• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm6860
• 发表时间: 2022-05-06
• 期刊: Science advances
• 影响因子: 13.6

Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in human and natural systems in six countries

全球变暖比工业化前水平高 1.5 至 4 °C 给六个国家的人类和自然系统带来风险

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03646-6
• 发表时间: 2024
• 期刊: Climatic Change
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Warren R