Avoiding dangerous climate change: analysis with an integrated assessment model

避免危险的气候变化：利用综合评估模型进行分析

• 批准号: NE/F016107/1
• 负责人: Rachel Warren
• 金额: $ 58.4万
• 依托单位: University of East Anglia
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2009 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FF016107%2F1
• 关键词: Avoiding; dangerous; climate; change; analysis

One of the most important issues in climate policy over the next few years will be the choice of appropriate targets for emission reductions (known as mitigation). Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change requires stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would 'prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system ... within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to allow economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner'. The key question therefore is the appropriate level and timescale for the stabilization. In order to best inform the choice of stabilization scenario and hence the potential targets for emission pathways, policy makers need assessments of the risks and costs associated with these alternative future scenarios. This information should also be accompanied by an extensive uncertainty analysis, which has, for the most part, not been provided to date. The risks and costs of these scenarios can be studied with computer integrated assessment (IA) models that link together component codes simulating the global economy, earth's climate system, and impacts of climate change upon human systems (e.g., water stress, agricultural yield losses, coastal flooding, human health risks , and on natural ecosystems (e.g., biodiversity, shifts in vegetation communities) and their accompanying services. The proposal centres on these types of analyses using the Community IA System (CIAS) that I have built with colleagues. The first objective of my research is to use CIAS to provide a risk assessment of the likely damages avoided, and hence the likely adaptation challenges remaining, under successively more stringent stabilization (and concurrently mitigation) scenarios, compared to a baseline 'no policy' scenario. In order to determine the pathway to a given stabilization scenario, policy makers will need information about the economic costs and technological feasibility of alternative mitigation policies. To provide this complementary information I will draw on the work of my collaborator Terry Barker at the University of Cambridge. Uncertainty analysis is key to properly performing a a risk assessment. Therefore I will assess uncertainties arising from (a) key climate model parameters through collaboration with the Hadley Centre and the Climate Prediction.net project (b) the diversity of spatial climate projection patterns arising from Global General Circulation Models (c) parameters within economic and impacts modules (d) alternative future socioeconomic scenarios and (e) use of different module codes written at different institutions. I will explore dynamic issues concerning the particular pathway towards stabilization and how impacts might be affected by temporarily overshooting of the ultimate stabilization levels being considered. I will initiate new studies of the feedbacks of climate impacts on the economy, considering both the effects of gradual climate change those of extreme weather events, breaking new ground in integrated assessment modelling. The third aim is to study the implications of land use change and its relationship with two critical elements of the human response to climate change today: (i) implications of large scale cropping of biofuels and (ii) the potential for avoided deforestation (now making up nearly 25% of global emissions) to play a major role in climate mitigation policy. The research will contribute useful information towards future assessments by the Nobel Peace Prize winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It will be accompanied by a 2-way interaction with DEFRA to maximise policy relevance of project plans and outputs. Members of the UKCIP08 User Group will also be consulted. Information will be disseminated also via journal papers, UNFCCC side-events, and 2 stakeholder workshops.

未来几年气候政策中最重要的问题之一将是选择适当的减排目标（称为缓解）。《联合国气候变化框架公约》第2条要求将温室气体浓度稳定在“防止气候系统受到危险的人为干扰.”的水平。在一个足以让生态系统自然适应气候变化的时间框架内，确保粮食生产不受威胁，并允许经济发展以可持续的方式进行。因此，关键问题是稳定的适当水平和时间表。为了最好地为选择稳定化情景提供信息，从而为排放路径的潜在目标提供信息，决策者需要评估与这些替代性未来情景相关的风险和成本。这一资料还应附有广泛的不确定性分析，但迄今为止大部分分析尚未提供。这些情景的风险和成本可以用计算机综合评估（IA）模型进行研究，这些模型将模拟全球经济、地球气候系统和气候变化对人类系统的影响的组件代码连接在一起（例如，水资源压力、农业产量损失、沿海洪水、人类健康风险，以及对自然生态系统的影响（例如，生物多样性，植被群落的变化）及其伴随服务。该提案集中在这些类型的分析使用社区IA系统（CIAS），我已经建立了与同事。我的研究的第一个目标是使用CIAS提供一个风险评估的可能避免的损害，因此可能的适应挑战仍然存在，连续更严格的稳定（同时缓解）的情况下，相比基线“没有政策”的情况。为了确定实现某一稳定情景的途径，决策者需要关于替代缓解政策的经济成本和技术可行性的信息。为了提供这些补充信息，我将引用我的合作者、剑桥大学的特里·巴克的研究成果。不确定性分析是正确执行风险评估的关键。因此，我将评估以下方面产生的不确定性：（a）通过与哈德利中心和气候Prediction.net项目的合作获得的关键气候模型参数;（B）全球大气环流模型产生的空间气候预测模式的多样性;（c）经济和影响模块内的参数;（d）替代的未来社会经济情景;（e）使用不同机构编写的不同模块代码。我将探讨动态的问题，特别是稳定的途径，以及如何影响可能会受到暂时超过最终的稳定水平正在考虑。我将启动对气候对经济影响的反馈的新研究，同时考虑气候逐渐变化和极端天气事件的影响，在综合评估建模方面开辟新天地。第三个目标是研究土地利用变化的影响及其与当今人类应对气候变化的两个关键因素的关系：（i）大规模种植生物燃料的影响和（ii）避免森林砍伐（目前占全球排放量的近25%）的潜力在气候减缓政策中发挥重要作用。这项研究将为获得诺贝尔和平奖的政府间气候变化专门委员会未来的评估提供有用的信息。同时还将与环境、林业和资源管理局进行双向互动，以最大限度地提高项目计划和产出的政策相关性。还将咨询UKCIP 08用户组的成员。还将通过期刊论文、《气候公约》会外活动和两次利益攸关方研讨会传播信息。

项目成果

Earth System Modelling: v. 5

地球系统建模：v. 5

• 发表时间: 2011
• 作者: Ford, Rupert;Riley, Graham;Budich, Reinhard;Redler, Rene
• 通讯作者: Redler, Rene

A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change

• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1793
• 发表时间: 2013-05-01
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Arnell, N. W.;Lowe, J. A.;Warren, R. F.
• 通讯作者: Warren, R. F.

Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034032
• 发表时间: 2013-07-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Gerten, Dieter;Lucht, Wolfgang;Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
• 通讯作者: Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa.

调查全球变暖 1.5°C、2°C 和 3°C 对西非作物适宜性和种植季节的潜在影响。

• DOI: 10.7717/peerj.8851
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: PeerJ
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Egbebiyi TS

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011
• 发表时间: 2014-03-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Deryng, Delphine;Conway, Declan;Warren, Rachel
• 通讯作者: Warren, Rachel