Dynamic Flood Topographies in the Terai, Nepal; community perception and resilience

从山脉流出的河流养活了大量人口，这些人口依靠每年的洪水灌溉和向农作物提供养分。这种类型的人口最多的是恒河平原，那里有近10%的世界人口依赖喜马拉雅山脉的水。这一地区的大部分地区也以极低的收入水平为特征，比如印度的北方邦和比哈尔邦，以及尼泊尔。因此，这些地区长期以来一直通过英国的海外援助预算得到支持。不幸的是，许多喜马拉雅河也是毁灭性洪水的源头，其影响进一步加剧，生活在河流泛滥平原上的孤立社区缺乏灾害风险管理和复原力措施。在尼泊尔，2001年至20081年间，洪水灾害造成了超过1.3亿美元的损失，占所有与自然灾害有关的死亡人数的近三分之一；这还不包括印度下游的跨境影响。最近的例子包括2008年导致数百人死亡、数百万人无家可归的科西河洪水，以及2013年导致5000多人死亡的北方邦洪水，这被视为印度自2004年以来最严重的自然灾害。北阿坎德邦洪水造成的大部分破坏是由河道洪峰期间的主要冲刷和淤积区造成的；爱丁堡陆地表面动力学小组的研究表明，洪水期间冲积地形的动态性质所驱动的变化的主要信号是大致可预测的。在2008年汶川地震和1999年台湾地震等大地震之后，洪水期间改变河流形态的危险也得到了强调，在地震发生后的几年里，由于河道改道，泥沙从山体滑坡释放到河流中，导致河床上升高达18米，造成毁灭性的洪水。2015年尼泊尔西部发生戈尔卡地震后留下的“地震空隙”表明，该地区必须做好应对大地震后类似洪水灾害的准备。在这项提案中，我们的目标是在爱丁堡大学建立一个独特的跨学科团队，将工程师、地貌学家、社会人类学家、人文地理学家和可持续建筑设计师结合在一起。这个团队将迎接学术研究如何帮助发展当地经济和拯救生命的挑战，以应对尼泊尔平原的洪水。我们正在与国际非政府组织“实际行动”密切合作，后者与当地社区和政府机构合作，提高复原力。通过在尼泊尔举办的一系列讲习班，我们将了解社区的需求和需要产生的科学的性质。我们将利用该地区的实地工作，同时生成遥感地形图来重建过去的洪水，并将其作为预测模型的输入。与工程师合作，我们将建立模型，不仅预测洪水的通过，而且还预测在这些巨大的洪水期间，底层河床的形状变化。在制定了对未来洪水的预测后，我们还将调查当地建筑的范围，以便建造更可持续的防洪平台。该项目是将这一战略扩展到未来的基础，在喜马拉雅泛滥平原沿途与各种不同的族裔和政治背景合作应用。穿过

Rivers that discharge from mountain ranges support vast populations that depend on annual floods for irrigation and nutrient supply to crops. The largest population of this type is that of the Gangetic Plains where nearly 10% of the world's population depend on waters from the Himalaya. Much of this area is also characterised by extremely low income levels such as in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar states in India, and in Nepal. Consequently, these regions have long been supported through the UK's overseas aid budget. Unfortunately, many of the Himalayan rivers are also the source of devastating floods, with effects further compounded where isolated communities, living on the river floodplain, lack disaster risk management and resilience measures. In Nepal, flood disasters were responsible for over USD 130 million losses and nearly one third of all natural disaster-related deaths between 2001 and 20081; this doesn't include the downstream cross-border impact in India. More recent examples include the 2008 Kosi River avulsion that killed hundreds and rendered millions homeless, and the 2013 Uttarakhand floods that killed over 5000 people and is viewed as India's worst natural disaster since 2004. Most of the damage generated by the Uttarakhand floods resulted from major zones of erosion and deposition during peak discharge of the channel; studies by the Edinburgh Land Surface Dynamics group demonstrated that the main signal of change driven by the dynamic nature of the alluvial topography during flooding was broadly predictable. The dangers of changing river morphology during floods has also been highlighted following major earthquakes such as the 2008 Wenchuan and 1999 Taiwan earthquakes where sediment released into the rivers from landslides caused river beds to rise by up to 18 m causing devastating floods in the years following the earthquakes due to re-routing of river courses. The 'seismic gap' left in western Nepal following the 2015 Gorkha earthquake suggests that readiness for a comparable cascade of flood hazards following a major earthquake is imperative for this region. In this proposal, we aim to build a unique interdisciplinary team based at Edinburgh University combining engineers, geomorphologists, social anthropologists, human geographers and sustainable building designers. This team will rise to the challenge of how academic research can help develop local economies and save lives in response to flooding in the Nepalese plains. We are working closely with the international NGO Practical Action who work with local communities and government bodies to improve resilience. Through a series of workshops in Nepal, we will understand the needs of the communities and the nature of the science that needs to be generated. We will use fieldwork in the region accompanied by the generation of remotely sensed topographic maps to reconstruct past floods, and as input into predictive models. Working with engineers, we will build models that not only predict the passage of flood waters, but also the changing shape of the underlying river bed during these enormous floods. Having developed predictions for future floods, we will also investigate the range of local building constructions that will enable more sustainable flood platforms to be constructed. This project represents the foundations for the expansion of this strategy into the future with applications all the way along the Himalayan floodplains in collaboration with the range of different ethnic and political contexts. Through