Managing nitrogen deposition: Leveraging NERC science for better pollution policy.

管理氮沉降：利用 NERC 科学制定更好的污染政策。

• 批准号: NE/R00546X/1
• 负责人: Richard Payne
• 金额: $ 6.1万
• 依托单位: University of York
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR00546X%2F1
• 关键词: Managing; nitrogen; deposition; Leveraging; NERC

Fossil fuel burning and intensive agriculture lead to air pollution in the form of reactive compounds of nitrogen (N) which cause impacts on the environment and human health. Nitrogen deposition has been estimated to cost the economy of the European Union E70-320 Billion per year. Managing this threat is a key challenge to regulatory organisations such as the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA). To permit new polluting activities SEPA is required to determine whether it is beyond reasonable scientific doubt that a proposed pollution source will have no adverse effect on conservation priority sites. SEPA's decisions must be robust and defensible but establishing whether a new development will have any adverse effect is often difficult. Modelling tools for assessing potential exposure to N deposition are well-established but tools for assessing ecological response to this loading are known to be simplistic. Nevertheless, difficult decisions need to be made: if new pollution sources are inappropriately permitted they may lead to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services but if new pollution sources are inappropriately refused this may cause unnecessary economic harm. With SEPA currently undertaking a broad review of air pollution policy now is an ideal time to assess how recent scientific advances can be applied in practise to produce a more robust pollution permitting process. This proposal focuses on three areas where there is the potential for recent NERC-funded science to have a transformative impact on SEPA's policies and procedures:1) Meaningful metrics of nitrogen deposition. SEPA's current approach to managing N is based on steady state principles but there is widespread acknowledgement that ecological impacts actually reflect the long-term history of pollution exposure. Current metrics may lead to inappropriate decisions but alternative metrics have not been available. This project will combine new N deposition modelling results with national vegetation datasets to develop metrics which realistically reflect the levels and periods of N deposition which matter to plants. 2) Vegetation-based screening thresholds. SEPA's current approach to assessing impacts from N deposition assumes that impacts develop gradually however recent research has demonstrated the presence of threshold responses. If these thresholds can be robustly characterised it may be possible to use them as a screening tool to permit new nitrogen sources in locations where they are unlikely to do harm but not in situations where they may have disproportionate impacts. This project will use recently-developed threshold-detection techniques to quantify thresholds in vegetation datasets, test their robustness and explore how they can be incorporated in existing processes. 3) Modelled baselines for N deposition assessment. SEPA's current approach does not fully accommodate pre-existing N deposition impacts on habitats prior to a new emissions source being permitted. A recently-developed modelling framework may allow quantification of pre-existing harm from N deposition allowing initial screening of sites prior to more detailed assessment and allowing SEPA to better target their resources. For each of these proposed tools and metrics we will conduct rigorous testing to establish their robustness. We will work with key actors in SEPA and outside organisations to establish how each tool could be incorporated into the existing permitting framework and the advantages and disadvantages relative to current approaches. We will use case studies of previous permit applications to assess whether such tools would have led to different decision making and will thoroughly evaluate these cases. We believe that by building on the latest science there is the possibility to develop pollution policy which is more robust, more defensible and which better achieves its goals.

化石燃料燃烧和集约化农业导致氮（N）的活性化合物形式的空气污染，这对环境和人类健康造成影响。据估计，氮沉降每年给欧盟经济造成70 -320亿欧元的损失。管理这种威胁是苏格兰环境保护局（SEPA）等监管机构面临的一个关键挑战。为了允许新的污染活动，国家环保总局必须确定拟议的污染源是否不会对优先保护地点产生不利影响，这是合理的科学怀疑。国家环保总局的决定必须是强有力的和可辩护的，但确定一个新的发展是否会产生任何不利影响往往是困难的。用于评估氮沉积潜在暴露的建模工具已经成熟，但用于评估对这种负荷的生态响应的工具众所周知过于简单化。然而，需要作出困难的决定：如果不适当地允许新的污染源，它们可能导致生物多样性和生态系统服务的丧失，但如果不适当地拒绝新的污染源，这可能造成不必要的经济损害。国家环保总局目前正在对空气污染政策进行广泛的审查，现在是评估如何将最新的科学进步应用于实践以产生更强大的污染许可程序的理想时机。该提案侧重于三个领域，其中最近NERC资助的科学有可能对SEPA的政策和程序产生变革性影响：1）有意义的氮沉降指标。国家环保总局目前管理氮的方法是基于稳态原则，但人们普遍认为，生态影响实际上反映了污染暴露的长期历史。目前的指标可能会导致不适当的决定，但替代指标还没有。该项目将联合收割机新的氮沉降模拟结果与国家植被数据集相结合，以制定切实反映氮沉降水平和时期的指标，这对植物很重要。2)基于植被的筛选阈值。国家环保总局目前评估氮沉降影响的方法假设影响是逐渐发展的，但最近的研究表明存在阈值响应。如果这些阈值可以被强有力地表征，则可能将其用作筛选工具，以允许新的氮源在它们不太可能造成危害的位置，而不是在它们可能具有不成比例的影响的情况下。该项目将使用最近开发的阈值检测技术来量化植被数据集中的阈值，测试其鲁棒性并探索如何将其纳入现有流程。3)氮沉降评估的模拟基线。国家环保总局目前的方法不能完全适应在新的排放源被允许之前已经存在的氮沉降对栖息地的影响。最近开发的一个模型框架可以量化预先存在的N沉积的危害，允许在更详细的评估之前对场地进行初步筛选，并允许SEPA更好地针对其资源。对于每一个提议的工具和指标，我们都将进行严格的测试，以确定它们的鲁棒性。我们将与国家环保总局和外部组织的关键参与者合作，确定如何将每种工具纳入现有的许可框架，以及相对于当前方法的优点和缺点。我们将使用以前的许可证申请的案例研究，以评估这些工具是否会导致不同的决策，并将彻底评估这些情况。我们相信，通过建立在最新的科学基础上，有可能制定出更有力、更合理、更能实现其目标的污染政策。

项目成果

What is the most ecologically-meaningful metric of nitrogen deposition?

• DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2019.01.059
• 发表时间: 2019-04
• 期刊: Environmental pollution
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: R. Payne;C. Campbell;A. Britton;R. Mitchell;R. Pakeman;L. Jones;L. Ross;C. Stevens;C. Field;S. Caporn;J. Carroll;J. Edmondson;E. Carnell;S. Tomlinson;A. Dore;N. Dise;U. Dragosits

Disparities between plant community responses to nitrogen deposition and critical loads in UK semi-natural habitats

• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117478
• 发表时间: 2020-10
• 期刊: Atmospheric Environment
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: R. Payne;C. Campbell;C. Stevens;R. Pakeman;L. Ross;A. Britton;R. Mitchell;L. Jones;C. Field;S. Caporn;J. Carroll;J. Edmondson;E. Carnell;S. Tomlinson;A. Dore;U. Dragosits;N. Dise