Microbes to Megafauna Modelling of Arctic Seas (MiMeMo)

北冰洋微生物到巨型动物模型 (MiMeMo)

• 批准号: NE/R012679/1
• 负责人: Andrew Brierley
• 金额: $ 9.3万
• 依托单位: University of St Andrews
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR012679%2F1
• 关键词: Microbes; Megafauna; Modelling; Arctic; Seas

Marine ecosystems are under pressure from a range of human activities as well climate change, and there is a need to develop more integrated plans to maximise their value to society in a sustainable way. These pressures are peaking in the polar regions, especially the Arctic, where the well documented progressive reductions in extent of sea-ice cover represent a rapid, massive and fundamental change in the environmental conditions to which the species which make up Arctic marine food webs have, for millennia, been adapted: it is possible that the pace of change in the Arctic is now more rapid than the pace at which life can evolve. We already know that the shrinking of ice-cover is resulting in increased primary production in the Arctic seas. However, the way and extent to which this increased production at the base of the food web propagates up to the higher trophic levels and charismatic megafauna such as whales, seals and polar bears, is extremely uncertain and hard to predict. Other features of the habitat than sea-ice such as currents and waves, seabed topography and sediments, and land-based freshwater and nutrient inputs, also dictate patterns of production and suitability for individual species.In this project we will employ mathematics and computer science to predict the likely flows of nutrient through the marine food web, from microbes to megafauna, as the physical environment in the Atlantic Arctic changes, as it is expected to do over the coming decades. The mathematics will be incorporated into computer models which describe the complex network of interactions between living components of the food web and the dissolved and particulate, inorganic and organic nutrients. This whole complex web is driven by the seasonal fluctuations in sunlight arriving at the sea surface, and coupled to the physical circulation and three-dimensional mixing of the marine environment by winds, tides and freshwater-driven currents, which transport all the components of the food web around in space. To accomplish this we need to summarize scientific information from across the whole range biology, chemistry and physics and represent it in our models.We start the project with the legacy of two different working models of marine ecosystems developed for temperate shelf seas, which include most of the basic elements that we need to model the food webs in the Barents Sea, Fram Strait, and the wider Atlantic-Arctic in this project. We will be working with researchers in all of the already-funded Changing Arctic Ocean projects to develop the models, so as to best represent the special features that are needed to simulate high-latitude ecosystems, especially the role of sea-ice on the ecology.By the end of the project we will be able to quantify the extent to which climate change may affect the potential fishery yields of fish and invertebrates from the Atlantic Arctic, and also the trade-offs that exploiting these resources may entail with respect to the culturally important abundances of Arctic megafauna which rely on fish and invertebrates for their survival.

海洋生态系统面临着一系列人类活动和气候变化的压力，需要制定更加综合的计划，以可持续的方式最大限度地发挥其对社会的价值。这些压力在极地地区，尤其是北极达到顶峰，有据可查的海冰覆盖范围逐渐减少，代表着构成北极海洋食物网的物种数千年来适应的环境条件正在发生快速、大规模和根本性的变化：北极的变化速度现在可能比生命进化的速度还要快。我们已经知道，冰盖的缩小导致北冰洋初级生产力的增加。然而，食物网底部产量的增加在多大程度上传播到更高的营养层和鲸鱼、海豹和北极熊等具有超凡魅力的巨型动物群，是极其不确定和难以预测的。除了海冰之外，栖息地的其他特征，如海流和波浪、海底地形和沉积物，以及陆基淡水和养分输入，也决定了个体物种的生产模式和适宜性。在这个项目中，我们将利用数学和计算机科学来预测随着大西洋北极地区物理环境的变化，养分通过海洋食物网从微生物到巨型动物的可能流动，正如预计的那样 未来几十年。数学将被纳入计算机模型中，该模型描述了食物网的生物成分与溶解的和颗粒的、无机和有机营养物之间相互作用的复杂网络。这整个复杂的网络是由到达海面的阳光的季节性波动驱动的，并与风、潮汐和淡水驱动的洋流所造成的海洋环境的物理循环和三维混合相结合，将食物网的所有组成部分在太空中运输。为了实现这一目标，我们需要总结整个生物学、化学和物理学领域的科学信息，并将其表示在我们的模型中。我们从为温带陆架海开发的两种不同的海洋生态系统工作模型的遗产开始该项目，其中包括我们在该项目中模拟巴伦支海、弗拉姆海峡和更广泛的大西洋-北极食物网所需的大部分基本要素。我们将与所有已资助的北冰洋变化项目的研究人员合作开发模型，以便最好地代表模拟高纬度生态系统所需的特殊特征，特别是海冰对生态的作用。在项目结束时，我们将能够量化气候变化可能影响北极大西洋鱼类和无脊椎动物潜在渔业产量的程度，以及利用这些特征的权衡 资源可能涉及具有重要文化意义的北极巨型动物群的丰富程度，这些动物依赖鱼类和无脊椎动物生存。

项目成果

How Do Dark Streams of Arctic Glacial Meltwater Affect Plankton?

北极冰川融水的暗流如何影响浮游生物？

• DOI: 10.3389/frym.2022.745930
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Frontiers for Young Minds
• 作者: Szeligowska M

Using Predicted Patterns of 3D Prey Distribution to Map King Penguin Foraging Habitat

使用 3D 猎物分布的预测模式绘制王企鹅觅食栖息地

• DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.745200
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Frontiers in Marine Science
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Proud R

Ecosystem approach to harvesting in the Arctic: Walking the tightrope between exploitation and conservation in the Barents Sea.

• DOI: 10.1007/s13280-021-01616-9
• 发表时间: 2022-03
• 期刊: Ambio
• 影响因子: 6.5
• 作者: Heath MR;Benkort D;Brierley AS;Daewel U;Laverick JH;Proud R;Speirs DC
• 通讯作者: Speirs DC

Shine a light: Under-ice light and its ecological implications in a changing Arctic Ocean.

• DOI: 10.1007/s13280-021-01662-3
• 发表时间: 2022-03
• 期刊: Ambio
• 影响因子: 6.5
• 作者: Castellani G;Veyssière G;Karcher M;Stroeve J;Banas SN;Bouman AH;Brierley SA;Connan S;Cottier F;Große F;Hobbs L;Katlein C;Light B;McKee D;Orkney A;Proud R;Schourup-Kristensen V
• 通讯作者: Schourup-Kristensen V