Evaluation, Quantification and Identification of Pathways and Targets for the assessment of Shale Gas RISK (EQUIPT4RISK)

页岩气风险评估途径和目标的评估、量化和识别 (EQUIPT4RISK)

• 批准号: NE/R017360/1
• 负责人: David Lowry
• 金额: $ 15.28万
• 依托单位: Royal Holloway University of London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR017360%2F1
• 关键词: Evaluation; Quantification; Identification; Pathways; Targets

The project will identify, characterise and parameterise the multiple direct and indirect pathways within the shallow subsurface and the atmosphere (and across interfaces), which link sources of contamination and hazards associated with shale gas (SG) operations to human and sensitive environmental receptors, and surface infrastructure. For each component of the domain (Water, Air, Solid Earth), Source-Pathway-Receptor combinations will be examined and then integrated in a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework for quantification of the risks to humans, infrastructure and the environment. A key aspect of the study will be to understand how the risk profile evolves over the life cycle of shale gas operations - from single site to multiple operations across an area. The focus will be on investigating the processes that affect and influence the near-surface (i.e. <400 m bgl) Source-Pathway-Receptor combinations (and their interactions). Processes that will be investigated include; hydro-geochemical controls on contaminant behaviour and transport, climatological and chemical controls on air quality, and attenuation of ground motion e.g. from seismic events. The on-going environmental monitoring at the shale gas sites in North Yorkshire and Lancashire, along with their detailed conceptual and geological models will provide rich and continuous quality-assured high precision datasets and information. The sites represent different types of shale gas operation in different geo-environmental settings. Information from these sites, along with other non-UK sites where project partners have worked, will be a starting point, with additional data from UKGEO supplementing the evidence base. Analysis of these data will then support the design of experiments at UKGEO and other sites to improve confidence in process understanding and test different aspects of the risk model under controlled conditions, quantifying properties and better characterising/quantifying uncertainty through evaluation of the sensitivity of environmental and human receptors. The experiments will also consider non-shale gas-related activities such as analogues and crowd-sourcing of information on ground movement. Attention will be given to identifying the key indicator parameters and techniques required to detect environmental changes arising from shale gas activity in both the short-term, providing early warning, and the long-term. This will include new technology tested as part of the experiments and case studies that will allow differentiation of stimulated reservoir source fluids and other contaminants from extraneous natural and anthropogenic sources in measured groundwater, soil gas or atmospheric samples. Improved measurement, monitoring and quantification will be critical to effectively evaluating and managing the risks arising from shale gas development and supporting the integrated risk model developed as an outcome of this project.The project will address the following scientific questions:1) What properties, parameters, and processes (biogeochemical and physical) of the shallow subsurface and atmosphere are most important for characterizing the key Source-Pathway-Receptor linkages and combinations? 2) What are the contaminant fluxes and physical hazard characteristics of a UK shale gas play and how do these evolve over time? What are main sources of uncertainty in such quantification?3) What proxies/indicators/measures of environmental change/impact are most sensitive to the stresses induced by shale gas operations in the shallow subsurface and in the atmosphere?4) How can the risks quantified for a single site be scaled up to assess the overall risks for a fully developed wellfield comprising multiple wells and the full lifecycle of operations?

该项目将识别、识别和参数化浅层地下和大气（以及跨界面）内的多个直接和间接路径，这些路径将与页岩气（SG）作业相关的污染源和危害源与人类和敏感的环境受体以及地表基础设施联系起来。对于该领域的每个组成部分（水、空气、固体地球），将检查源-途径-受体组合，然后将其整合到概率风险评估（PRA）框架中，以量化对人类、基础设施和环境的风险。该研究的一个关键方面将是了解风险状况如何在页岩气作业的生命周期中演变-从单一地点到整个地区的多个作业。重点将是调查影响和影响近表面（即<400 m bgl）源-途径-受体组合（及其相互作用）的过程。将被调查的过程包括：水文地球化学控制污染物的行为和运输，气候和化学控制空气质量，和地面运动的衰减，如地震事件。在北约克郡和兰开夏郡的页岩气现场进行的环境监测，沿着详细的概念和地质模型，将提供丰富和连续的高精度数据集和信息。这些地点代表了不同地质环境背景下的不同类型的页岩气作业。来自这些地点的信息，沿着项目合作伙伴工作过的其他非英国地点的信息，将是一个起点，来自UKGEO的额外数据将补充证据基础。然后，对这些数据的分析将支持UKGEO和其他地点的实验设计，以提高对工艺理解的信心，并在受控条件下测试风险模型的不同方面，通过评估环境和人类受体的敏感性，量化特性并更好地表征/量化不确定性。这些试验还将考虑与页岩气无关的活动，如地面移动信息的类比和众包。将注意确定关键指标参数和技术，以检测页岩气活动引起的短期和长期环境变化，提供早期预警。这将包括作为实验和案例研究的一部分进行测试的新技术，这些实验和案例研究将能够区分受刺激的储层源流体和其他污染物与所测量的地下水、土壤气体或大气样本中的外来自然和人为来源。改进测量、监测和量化对于有效评估和管理页岩气开发所产生的风险以及支持作为本项目成果开发的综合风险模型至关重要。本项目将解决以下科学问题：1）浅层地下和大气的哪些属性、参数和过程（地球化学和物理）对于表征关键源-路径-受体联系和组合最重要？2)英国页岩气区块的污染物通量和物理危害特征是什么？这些特征如何随时间演变？这种量化的不确定性的主要来源是什么？3)环境变化/影响的哪些代理/指标/措施对页岩气开采在浅层地下和大气中引起的应力最敏感？4)如何将单个现场的量化风险按比例放大，以评估由多口威尔斯井组成的完全开发的井场和整个作业生命周期的总体风险？

项目成果

Methane Source Attribution in the UK Using Multi-Year Records of CH 4 and d 13 C

使用 CH 4 和 d 13 C 的多年记录对英国的甲烷来源进行归因

• DOI: 10.1029/2023jd039098
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Atmospheres
• 作者: Woolley Maisch C

Statistical evaluation of methane isotopic signatures determined during near-source measurements

对近源测量期间确定的甲烷同位素特征的统计评估

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1490
• 发表时间: 2023
• 作者: Defratyka S

Atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide: challenges alongthe path to Net Zero.

• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2020.0457
• 发表时间: 2021-11-15
• 期刊: Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
• 作者: Nisbet EG;Dlugokencky EJ;Fisher RE;France JL;Lowry D;Manning MR;Michel SE;Warwick NJ
• 通讯作者: Warwick NJ

Methane flux from flowback operations at a shale gas site.

页岩气现场回流作业产生的甲烷通量。

• DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2020.1811800
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995)
• 作者: Shaw JT

A baseline of atmospheric greenhouse gases for prospective UK shale gas sites.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.266
• 发表时间: 2019-05
• 期刊: The Science of the total environment
• 作者: J. Shaw;G. Allen;J. Pitt;M. I. Mead;R. Purvis;R. Dunmore;S. Wilde;Adil Shah;P. Barker;Prudence Bateson;A. Bacak;A. Lewis;D. Lowry;R. Fisher;M. Lanoisellé;R. Ward