Evaluation, Quantification and Identification of Pathways and Targets for the assessment of Shale Gas RISK (EQUIPT4RISK)

页岩气风险评估途径和目标的评估、量化和识别 (EQUIPT4RISK)

• 批准号: NE/R017360/1
• 负责人: David Lowry
• 金额: $ 15.28万
• 依托单位: Royal Holloway University of London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR017360%2F1
• 关键词: Evaluation; Quantification; Identification; Pathways; Targets

The project will identify, characterise and parameterise the multiple direct and indirect pathways within the shallow subsurface and the atmosphere (and across interfaces), which link sources of contamination and hazards associated with shale gas (SG) operations to human and sensitive environmental receptors, and surface infrastructure. For each component of the domain (Water, Air, Solid Earth), Source-Pathway-Receptor combinations will be examined and then integrated in a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework for quantification of the risks to humans, infrastructure and the environment. A key aspect of the study will be to understand how the risk profile evolves over the life cycle of shale gas operations - from single site to multiple operations across an area. The focus will be on investigating the processes that affect and influence the near-surface (i.e. <400 m bgl) Source-Pathway-Receptor combinations (and their interactions). Processes that will be investigated include; hydro-geochemical controls on contaminant behaviour and transport, climatological and chemical controls on air quality, and attenuation of ground motion e.g. from seismic events. The on-going environmental monitoring at the shale gas sites in North Yorkshire and Lancashire, along with their detailed conceptual and geological models will provide rich and continuous quality-assured high precision datasets and information. The sites represent different types of shale gas operation in different geo-environmental settings. Information from these sites, along with other non-UK sites where project partners have worked, will be a starting point, with additional data from UKGEO supplementing the evidence base. Analysis of these data will then support the design of experiments at UKGEO and other sites to improve confidence in process understanding and test different aspects of the risk model under controlled conditions, quantifying properties and better characterising/quantifying uncertainty through evaluation of the sensitivity of environmental and human receptors. The experiments will also consider non-shale gas-related activities such as analogues and crowd-sourcing of information on ground movement. Attention will be given to identifying the key indicator parameters and techniques required to detect environmental changes arising from shale gas activity in both the short-term, providing early warning, and the long-term. This will include new technology tested as part of the experiments and case studies that will allow differentiation of stimulated reservoir source fluids and other contaminants from extraneous natural and anthropogenic sources in measured groundwater, soil gas or atmospheric samples. Improved measurement, monitoring and quantification will be critical to effectively evaluating and managing the risks arising from shale gas development and supporting the integrated risk model developed as an outcome of this project.The project will address the following scientific questions:1) What properties, parameters, and processes (biogeochemical and physical) of the shallow subsurface and atmosphere are most important for characterizing the key Source-Pathway-Receptor linkages and combinations? 2) What are the contaminant fluxes and physical hazard characteristics of a UK shale gas play and how do these evolve over time? What are main sources of uncertainty in such quantification?3) What proxies/indicators/measures of environmental change/impact are most sensitive to the stresses induced by shale gas operations in the shallow subsurface and in the atmosphere?4) How can the risks quantified for a single site be scaled up to assess the overall risks for a fully developed wellfield comprising multiple wells and the full lifecycle of operations?

该项目将识别，表征和参数将浅层地下和大气（以及跨界面）内的多个直接和间接途径（以及与页岩气（SG）操作相关的污染源和危害源）与人类和敏感的环境受体有关的危险来源，以及表面基础设施。对于域的每个组成部分（水，空气，固体地球），将检查源pathway-the-toptor组合，然后将其集成到概率风险评估（PRA）框架中，以量化对人类，基础设施和环境的风险。该研究的一个关键方面是了解在页岩气操作的生命周期中，从单个站点到整个区域的多次操作，风险概况如何发展。重点将放在研究影响和影响近地表（即<400 m bgl）源 - 源 - pathway-peptor-peptor组合（及其相互作用）的过程上。将进行调查的过程包括；关于污染物行为和运输，气候和化学控制的水力化学控制以及地面运动的衰减，例如来自地震事件。北约克郡和兰开夏郡页岩气站点进行的正在进行的环境监测以及其详细的概念和地质模型将提供丰富且连续质量的高精度数据集和信息。这些地点代表不同类型的页岩气操作，在不同的环境环境中。来自这些网站的信息以及项目合作伙伴工作的其他非开关网站将是一个起点，UKGeo的其他数据补充了证据基础。然后，对这些数据的分析将支持UKGEO和其他站点的实验设计，以提高对流程理解的信心，并在受控条件下通过评估环境和人类受体的敏感性来量化风险模型的不同方面，量化特性并更好地表征/量化不确定性。这些实验还将考虑与非广播气体相关的活动，例如类似物和关于地面运动的信息。将注意确定检测短期页岩气活动所需的环境变化所需的关键指标参数和技术，并提供早期警告和长期。这将包括作为实验和案例研究的一部分测试的新技术，这些技术将允许在测得的地下水，土壤气体或大气样品中分化受刺激的储液源流体和其他污染物与其他自然和人为来源的分化。改进的测量，监视和量化对于有效评估和管理页岩气发展和支持作为该项目结果的综合风险模型引起的风险至关重要。该项目将解决以下科学问题：1）属性，参数和过程（生物地球化学和物理）的层次和氛围是层次和氛围的最重要的，以供层次和氛围来源，以供您进行层次和氛围。 2）英国页岩气弹出的污染物和物理危险特性是什么？随着时间的流逝，它们如何发展？这种量化中的不确定性主要来源是什么？3）哪些代理/指标/措施环境变化/影响最敏感对浅层地下和大气中的页岩气体操作引起的压力最敏感？4）如何量化单个地点的风险，以评估整体井的整体风险，以评估整个井的整体风险和完整的多重元素的整体风险？

项目成果

Methane Source Attribution in the UK Using Multi-Year Records of CH 4 and d 13 C

使用 CH 4 和 d 13 C 的多年记录对英国的甲烷来源进行归因

• DOI: 10.1029/2023jd039098
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Atmospheres
• 作者: Woolley Maisch C

Atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide: challenges alongthe path to Net Zero.

• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2020.0457
• 发表时间: 2021-11-15
• 期刊: Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
• 作者: Nisbet EG;Dlugokencky EJ;Fisher RE;France JL;Lowry D;Manning MR;Michel SE;Warwick NJ
• 通讯作者: Warwick NJ

Methane flux from flowback operations at a shale gas site.

页岩气现场回流作业产生的甲烷通量。

• DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2020.1811800
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995)
• 作者: Shaw JT

New contributions of measurements in Europe to the global inventory of the stable isotopic composition of methane

欧洲测量对全球甲烷稳定同位素组成清单的新贡献

• DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-4365-2022
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Earth System Science Data
• 影响因子: 11.4
• 作者: Menoud M

A baseline of atmospheric greenhouse gases for prospective UK shale gas sites.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.266
• 发表时间: 2019-05
• 期刊: The Science of the total environment
• 作者: J. Shaw;G. Allen;J. Pitt;M. I. Mead;R. Purvis;R. Dunmore;S. Wilde;Adil Shah;P. Barker;Prudence Bateson;A. Bacak;A. Lewis;D. Lowry;R. Fisher;M. Lanoisellé;R. Ward