An integrated assessment of UK Shale resource distribution based on fundamental analyses of shale mechanical & fluid properties.

页岩气有可能改变英国未来的能源安全。目前进口占中国国内天然气需求的50%，预计到2035年将升至约80%，因此一个大问题是，是否有足够的页岩气资源来有效取代北海和爱尔兰海日益下降的天然气产量，以及能持续多久？最大的未知数是在英国生产的潜在天然气储量(即可采资源)在商业上是可行的。对于英格兰北部石炭纪的上鲍兰页岩，有许多不同的原地估计，从Andrews(2013)提出的164-447 tcf到乌古纳等人引用的8-19 tcf不等。(2017年)。在没有流动测试数据的情况下，可靠的可采储量估计不可能公布。Cuadrilla在兰开夏郡进行了一次单井测试，测试结果尚未公布。工业界、科学界、政府和环境科学家一直缺乏用于评估资源潜力和相关环境影响的现代井电测井、岩心和油井测试数据。这种情况即将改变，钻探计划在拟议的研究过程中在柴郡、兰开夏郡、北约克郡和北诺丁汉郡进行。这项研究项目将集中在东米德兰兹、兰开夏、柴郡和约克郡的石炭纪(鲍兰页岩)盆地。这一愿景是采用多学科方法来解决NERC呼吁中提出的挑战2中提出的主要研究重点领域的问题。我们将汇集来自英国各地几个机构的关键研究人员，致力于英国页岩科学，从微孔(10纳米)到盆地尺度。页岩矿物学、岩石学、地球化学、地层学、岩石力学、天然气生成和吸附以及低孔隙度岩石中流体流动的关键方面将被结合到一个整体的盆地尺度模型中，以产生更好的科学依据的一套估计。将测试与输入参数有关的关键敏感性，更重要的是，与计划油井的现有产量数据进行比较。这个为期4年的项目的结果将是对英国页岩资源的位置和规模进行更科学的防御评估，指导人们更好地了解页岩属性和流体在水力压裂之前、期间和之后流经页岩的情况，以确定页岩气是否有可能在未来几十年对英国的能源安全产生显著影响。该项目将向关键的利益相关者(政府、工业界、学术界和公众)提供有关英国页岩潜力的重要信息，并将为未来英国能源战略的讨论提供意见。与在本方案其他挑战范围内资助的那些项目合作，将使我们能够评估这一资源是否能够以商业上可行和对环境负责的方式获得。石炭系鲍兰页岩：地质与资源评价英国能源和气候变化部的英国地质调查局，伦敦，C.，Snape，C.，Vane，C.，V.Moss-Hayes，V.，Whitelaw，P.，Stevens，L.，Meredith，W.和Carr，A.高压水热解过程中的页岩气储量估算与天然气吸附测量结果的一致性。第28届国际有机地球化学会议，2017年9月17日至22日，意大利佛罗伦萨。

Shale gas has the potential to transform the UK's future energy security. With imports currently accounting for 50% of its domestic gas requirements, projected to rise to roughly 80% by 2035, the big question is 'Are there enough shale gas resources to effectively replace the declining North Sea and Irish Sea gas production, and for how long?' The largest unknown is the potential gas reserves (i.e. recoverable resources) that would be commercially viable to be produced in the UK. There have been a number of differing in-place estimates for the Upper Bowland Shale in the northern England Carboniferous, ranging from 164-447 tcf suggested by Andrews (2013), to 8-19 tcf quoted by Uguna et al. (2017). In the absence of flow test data, reliable recoverable reserves estimates could not have been published. There has been a single well test carried out by Cuadrilla in Lancashire, the results of which have not yet been made public. The industry, the scientific community, the government, and environmental scientists, have been starved of modern borehole electric log, core and well test data with which to assess both resource potential and the associated environmental impact. This is about to change, with drilling planned to take place during the course of the proposed study in Cheshire, Lancashire, North Yorkshire, and North Nottinghamshire. This research project will focus on the Carboniferous (Bowland Shale) basins of the East Midlands, Lancashire, Cheshire, and Yorkshire. The vision is of a multidisciplinary approach to solving problems in the main research focus areas set out in Challenge 2 of the NERC call. We will bring together key researchers from several institutions around the UK, working on UK shale science from the micro-pore (<10 nm) to the basin scale. Key aspects of shale mineralogy, petrology, geochemistry, stratigraphy, rock mechanics, gas generation and adsorption and fluid flow in low porosity rocks will be combined into a holistic basin-scale model to generate a better scientifically-grounded set of estimates. Key sensitivities related to input parameters will be tested, and more importantly, compared/contrasted with available production data from the planned wells . The outcome of this 4-year project will be a more scientifically defendable assessment of the location and magnitude of UK shale resources, guided by an improved understanding of the shale properties and fluid flow through the shale, before, during and following hydraulic fracturing to ascertain whether shale gas has the potential to have a marked impact on energy security in the UK for several decades into the future. This project will critically inform the key stakeholders (Government, Industry, Academia, and the general public) of UK shale potential, and will provide input to discussions on future UK energy strategy. Collaboration with those projects funded within the other Challenges in this programme will allow us to assess whether or not this resource can be accessed in a commercially viable and environmentally responsible way.ReferencesAndrews, I.J. 2013. The Carboniferous Bowland Shale: Geology and resource estimate. British Geological Survey for the Department of Energy and Climate Change, London, UK.Uguna, C., Snape, C., Vane, C., V. Moss-Hayes, V., Whitelaw, P., Stevens, L., Meredith, W. and Carr, A. 2017. Convergence of shale gas reserve estimates from a high pressure water pyrolysis procedure and gas adsorption measurements. 28th International Meeting on Organic Geochemistry, 17-22 September 2017, Florence, Italy.