[Viet Nam] Comp-Flood: Compound flooding in coastal Viet Nam
[越南] Comp-Flood:越南沿海复合洪水
基本信息
- 批准号:NE/S003150/1
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 47.08万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:英国
- 项目类别:Research Grant
- 财政年份:2019
- 资助国家:英国
- 起止时间:2019 至 无数据
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Floods are among the most dangerous and costly natural hazards. Since 1980, floods have accounted for more than 200,000 fatalities globally and resulted in at least $1 trillion in economic losses. More than 50% of these deaths and a large proportion of the losses have occurred in densely populated low-lying deltas. Water related disasters are a major concern in deltas because they are located between the sea and major rivers, and hence are subject to flooding from the coastal zone and from rivers. Furthermore, deltas occupy large low-lying areas that are densely populated.In deltas, flooding arises from three main sources: (i) storm tides (storm surges plus tides); but also, from heavy precipitation, either through (ii) increased river discharge (fluvial) and/or (iii) direct surface runoff (pluvial). To date the majority of flood risk assessments in deltas (and other environments) have considered these main causes of flooding separately, because of the lack of information on their inter-dependence, and because of the perceived difficulty in handling the necessary underpinning statistics (known as joint probability analysis methods). However, the adverse consequences of a flood in a delta can be greatly increased when the coastal, fluvial and surface flood sources occur concurrently, or in close succession, resulting in a disproportionately extreme event referred to as 'compound flooding'. Despite their high impact potential, compound events remain poorly understood. This is why the World Climate Research Program has identified compound flood events as an international research priority.This project will bring together UK and Vietnamese expertise to map and characterise present and predict future flood risk, from coastal, fluvial, and surface sources and, uniquely, to assess the risk of compound flooding across the Mekong delta. Exposed to heavy monsoon rains that can cause both fluvial and pluvial flooding, and tropical cyclones that cause coastal flooding, the Mekong is one of the three most vulnerable deltas in the world. Our hypothesis is that previous flood assessments have underestimated the source drivers and hence the likelihood of flooding and associated risk, as compound events have not previously been considered. We propose a new integrated approach, to make a step change in our understanding and prediction of the source mechanisms driving compound flood events in delta regions. We will assess the large-scale drivers of variability in storms and monsoon rainfall that impact Viet Nam and develop novel (for both the past/present and future) meteorological datasets needed to drive the coupled flood models of the Mekong delta and its catchment. This involves use of next-generation climate models, which can simulate both intense monsoon events and tropical cyclones, providing datasets that are sufficiently large for our statistical analysis of flood risk.We will calculate the past/present and future likelihood of coastal and fluvial flooding across the delta, quantifying the occurrence of compound flooding events. For key hot spot areas, we will estimate areas of land inundated, numbers of people affected and how infrastructure and agriculture might be impacted, now and in the future. In particular we will examine low probability, high impact, events and quantify how compounding flood effects from multiple flood sources exacerbate impacts to coastal communities. Working in close partnership with our national, regional and provincial governmental project partners, we will consider management and planning options and provide guidance that will increase preparedness and resilience to future flood events.Our new methods will enable us, for the first time, to fully assess and predict all the source variables associated with compound events in the Mekong delta (at present and in the future) and will result in a major advance in the way compound flooding is understood, quantified and managed.
洪水是最危险和代价最高的自然灾害之一。自1980年以来,洪水已造成全球20多万人死亡,并造成至少1万亿美元的经济损失。超过50%的死亡和大部分损失发生在人口稠密的低洼三角洲。与水有关的灾害是三角洲的一个主要问题,因为它们位于海洋和主要河流之间,因此容易遭受沿海地区和河流的洪水。此外,三角洲占据着人口密集的大片低洼地区,在三角洲,洪水主要来自三个来源:(i)风暴潮(风暴潮加潮汐);但也来自强降水,要么是(ii)河流流量增加(河流),要么是(iii)直接地表径流(洪积)。到目前为止,大多数三角洲(和其他环境)的洪水风险评估都单独考虑了这些主要的洪水原因,因为缺乏关于它们相互依赖性的信息,并且因为在处理必要的基础统计数据(称为联合概率分析方法)方面存在明显的困难。然而,当沿海、河流和地表洪水源同时或紧接着发生时,三角洲洪水的不利后果可能会大大增加,从而导致被称为“复合洪水”的不成比例的极端事件。尽管复合事件具有很高的影响潜力,但人们对它们的了解仍然很少。这就是为什么世界气候研究计划将复合洪水事件确定为国际研究优先事项的原因。该项目将汇集英国和越南的专业知识,从沿海、河流和地表来源绘制、展示和预测未来洪水风险,并独特地评估湄公河三角洲复合洪水的风险。湄公河是世界上三个最脆弱的三角洲之一,它暴露于可能导致河流和洪水泛滥的季风大雨和导致沿海洪水的热带气旋。我们的假设是,以前的洪水评估低估了源驱动程序,因此洪水和相关风险的可能性,因为复合事件以前没有被考虑。我们提出了一种新的综合方法,使我们的理解和预测的源机制驱动复合洪水事件在三角洲地区的一个步骤的变化。我们将评估影响越南的风暴和季风降雨变化的大规模驱动因素,并开发新的(过去/现在和未来)气象数据集,以驱动湄公河三角洲及其流域的耦合洪水模型。这涉及到下一代气候模型的使用,该模型可以模拟强烈的季风事件和热带气旋,为我们的洪水风险统计分析提供足够大的数据集。我们将计算三角洲过去/现在和未来沿海和河流洪水的可能性,量化复合洪水事件的发生。对于关键的热点地区,我们将估计现在和未来被淹没的土地面积、受影响的人数以及基础设施和农业可能受到的影响。特别是,我们将研究低概率,高影响,事件,并量化如何复合洪水的影响,从多个洪水源加剧对沿海社区的影响。我们将与国家、地区和省级政府项目合作伙伴密切合作,考虑管理和规划方案,并提供指导,以加强对未来洪水事件的准备和恢复能力。我们的新方法将首次使我们能够,全面评估和预测与湄公河三角洲复合事件相关的所有源变量(现在和将来),并将导致对复合洪水的理解,量化和管理方式的重大进步。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(7)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
- DOI:10.5194/nhess-2021-397
- 发表时间:2022-01
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:4.6
- 作者:Melissa Wood;I. Haigh;Quan Le;H. Nguyen;Hoang Tran;S. Darby;R. Marsh;N. Skliris;J. Hirschi;R. Nicholls;N. Bloemendaal
- 通讯作者:Melissa Wood;I. Haigh;Quan Le;H. Nguyen;Hoang Tran;S. Darby;R. Marsh;N. Skliris;J. Hirschi;R. Nicholls;N. Bloemendaal
Compound storm tide and river modelling reveals areas of new flood exposure in the future Mekong River delta
复合风暴潮和河流模型揭示了未来湄公河三角洲新的洪水暴露区域
- DOI:
- 发表时间:2023
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Wood M
- 通讯作者:Wood M
Estimation of global tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities using the STORM dataset.
使用风暴数据集对全球热带气旋风速概率进行估计。
- DOI:10.1038/s41597-020-00720-x
- 发表时间:2020-11-10
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:9.8
- 作者:Bloemendaal N;de Moel H;Muis S;Haigh ID;Aerts JCJH
- 通讯作者:Aerts JCJH
Drivers of past and predicted changes of rainfall in and around Mainland Southeast Asia
- DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-194416/v1
- 发表时间:2021-02
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:N. Skliris;R. Marsh;I. Haigh;Melissa Wood;J. Hirschi;S. Darby;N. P. Quynh;N. Hung
- 通讯作者:N. Skliris;R. Marsh;I. Haigh;Melissa Wood;J. Hirschi;S. Darby;N. P. Quynh;N. Hung
Drivers of rainfall trends in and around Mainland Southeast Asia
- DOI:10.3389/fclim.2022.926568
- 发表时间:2022-09
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:N. Skliris;R. Marsh;I. Haigh;Melissa Wood;J. Hirschi;S. Darby;N. P. Quynh;N. Hung
- 通讯作者:N. Skliris;R. Marsh;I. Haigh;Melissa Wood;J. Hirschi;S. Darby;N. P. Quynh;N. Hung
{{
item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
- DOI:
{{ item.doi }} - 发表时间:
{{ item.publish_year }} - 期刊:
- 影响因子:{{ item.factor }}
- 作者:
{{ item.authors }} - 通讯作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ monograph.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ sciAawards.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ conferencePapers.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ patent.updateTime }}
Ivan Haigh其他文献
The role of wave setup on extreme water levels around Australia
波浪设置对澳大利亚各地极端水位的作用
- DOI:
10.1016/j.oceaneng.2024.118340 - 发表时间:
2024 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:5
- 作者:
Y. Hetzel;Ivica Janeković;C. Pattiaratchi;Ivan Haigh - 通讯作者:
Ivan Haigh
Ivan Haigh的其他文献
{{
item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
- DOI:
{{ item.doi }} - 发表时间:
{{ item.publish_year }} - 期刊:
- 影响因子:{{ item.factor }}
- 作者:
{{ item.authors }} - 通讯作者:
{{ item.author }}
{{ truncateString('Ivan Haigh', 18)}}的其他基金
Next-generation Forecasting of Hazards Offshore from River Deltas
河流三角洲近海灾害的下一代预测
- 批准号:
NE/V021095/1 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
UPSURGE: Helping storm surge barriers prepare for climate change
UPSURGE:帮助风暴潮屏障为气候变化做好准备
- 批准号:
NE/V018655/1 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
NSFGEO-NERC: CHANCE - Understanding compound flooding in the past, present and future for North Atlantic coastlines
NSFGEO-NERC:机会 - 了解北大西洋海岸线过去、现在和未来的复合洪水
- 批准号:
NE/S010262/1 - 财政年份:2019
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
E-Rise: Earliest detection of sea-level rise accelerations to inform lead time to upgrade/replace coastal flood defense infrastructure.
E-Rise:最早检测海平面上升加速度,以告知升级/更换沿海防洪基础设施的准备时间。
- 批准号:
NE/P009069/1 - 财政年份:2017
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
相似国自然基金
哺乳动物体内调控 NAM 向 NA 转变的烟酰胺酶的鉴定与功能分析
- 批准号:24ZR1469200
- 批准年份:2024
- 资助金额:0.0 万元
- 项目类别:省市级项目
小麦抗条锈病新型结构基因NAM-ZnF-BED的抗病机制解析及新基因挖掘
- 批准号:32372102
- 批准年份:2023
- 资助金额:50 万元
- 项目类别:面上项目
基于NAM与亲和力的分层图像分割算法研究
- 批准号:
- 批准年份:2021
- 资助金额:10.0 万元
- 项目类别:省市级项目
基于TPT3/NaM型非天然碱基核苷酸的无细胞基因表达研究
- 批准号:
- 批准年份:2020
- 资助金额:63 万元
- 项目类别:面上项目
拟南芥NAM1蛋白调控类囊体跨膜电位的分子机理研究
- 批准号:32000182
- 批准年份:2020
- 资助金额:24.0 万元
- 项目类别:青年科学基金项目
基于前药策略的人造TPT3-NaM碱基核苷酸跨膜转运系统的构建及活性研究
- 批准号:21877026
- 批准年份:2018
- 资助金额:67.0 万元
- 项目类别:面上项目
层状金属氧化物NaM1-yNyO2 (0<y<1,M,N=Fe,Co,Ni) 纳米晶的制备及性能研究
- 批准号:61874014
- 批准年份:2018
- 资助金额:66.0 万元
- 项目类别:面上项目
基于NAM群体的油菜产量及产量相关性状的联合连锁分析和全基因组关联分析
- 批准号:31771826
- 批准年份:2017
- 资助金额:64.0 万元
- 项目类别:面上项目
基于NAM和生物视知觉的医学图像分割算法研究
- 批准号:61300134
- 批准年份:2013
- 资助金额:23.0 万元
- 项目类别:青年科学基金项目
北极涛动或北半球环状模(AO/NAM)的动力学机理研究
- 批准号:40940022
- 批准年份:2009
- 资助金额:15.0 万元
- 项目类别:专项基金项目
相似海外基金
イネNAM集団を用いた高精度ゲノミックデザインモデルの構築と有用ハプロタイプの解明
利用水稻NAM群体构建高精度基因组设计模型并阐明有用的单倍型
- 批准号:
23K26882 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
Collaborative Research: EAGER--Evaluation of Optimal Mesonetwork Design for Monitoring and Predicting North American Monsoon (NAM) Convection Using Observing System Simulation
合作研究:EAGER——利用观测系统模拟监测和预测北美季风(NAM)对流的最佳中观网络设计评估
- 批准号:
2308410 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
イネNAM集団を用いた高精度ゲノミックデザインモデルの構築と有用ハプロタイプの解明
利用水稻NAM群体构建高精度基因组设计模型并阐明有用的单倍型
- 批准号:
23H02189 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
Identifying orbital- and sub-orbital-scale controls on the Asian summer monsoon: a 500,000 year hydroclimate record from Nam Co, Tibet [NamCore-UK]
确定对亚洲夏季风的轨道和亚轨道尺度控制:西藏纳木错 50 万年的水文气候记录 [NamCore-UK]
- 批准号:
NE/W000989/1 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Nicotinamide (NAM)の心腎連関の治療としての有用性の検討
烟酰胺(NAM)治疗心肾疾病的有效性检查
- 批准号:
23K15245 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
Collaborative Research: EAGER--Evaluation of Optimal Mesonetwork Design for Monitoring and Predicting North American Monsoon (NAM) Convection Using Observing System Simulation
合作研究:EAGER——利用观测系统模拟监测和预测北美季风(NAM)对流的最佳中观网络设计评估
- 批准号:
2308409 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Adaptation and Pilot of a Peer-Facilitated Self-Help Plus Stress Management Intervention for Breast Cancer Patients in Viet Nam
越南乳腺癌患者同伴促进自助加压力管理干预措施的调整和试点
- 批准号:
10369446 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Mathematical Modeling to Evaluate Environmental Responsiveness of multiple QTL for flowering time Using Dual-NAM Population
使用双 NAM 群体评估多个 QTL 对开花时间的环境响应性的数学模型
- 批准号:
21K05522 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Buddhist Monks as Task-Shifting Providers of Depression Treatment in Viet Nam
佛教僧侣作为越南抑郁症治疗的任务转移提供者
- 批准号:
10297970 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别:
Adaptation and Pilot of a Peer-Facilitated Self-Help Plus Stress Management Intervention for Breast Cancer Patients in Viet Nam
越南乳腺癌患者同伴促进自助加压力管理干预措施的调整和试点
- 批准号:
10899027 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 47.08万 - 项目类别: