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NSFGEO-NERC: CHANCE - Understanding compound flooding in the past, present and future for North Atlantic coastlines

NSFGEO-NERC：机会 - 了解北大西洋海岸线过去、现在和未来的复合洪水

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S010262/1
负责人：
Ivan Haigh
金额：
$ 61.32万
依托单位：
University of Southampton
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS010262%2F1
关键词：
NSFGEO NERC CHANCE Understanding compound

项目摘要

Floods are the most dangerous and costly of all natural hazards. From 1980 to 2013, floods accounted for more than $1 trillion in losses and resulted in at least 220,000 fatalities globally. More than 50% of these deaths, and a large proportion of the losses, occurred in densely populated low-lying coastal regions, especially those at the coastal-river interface. Continuing to advance our understanding of flooding is therefore of utmost importance.In coastal regions, floods are often caused by multiple factors. Floods can arise through the joint occurrence of factors such as (1) storm surges plus astronomical tides (storm-tides) and/or (2) local or remotely (swell) generated waves; but also from heavy precipitation, either through (3) increased river discharge (fluvial) and/or (4) direct runoff (pluvial). Most flood risk assessments to date have considered these four main drivers of flooding separately. However, the adverse consequences of a flood in coastal regions can be greatly exacerbated when the oceanographic (storm-tides and waves), fluvial, and/or pluvial sources of flooding occur concurrently or in close succession, a condition known as 'compound flooding', which can result in disproportionately extreme events. Despite their high impact potential, compound events remain poorly understood, in large part because of the lack of information on the inter-dependence of the driving factors, which varies considerably from place to place, and the perceived difficulty of the joint probability analysis methods required to analyse these interdepencies. This is why the World Climate Research Program Grand Challenge on Extremes has identified climatic compound events as an international research priority.A recent example of a compound event is that associated with Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Record breaking rainfall, river discharge and runoff, combined with a moderate but long-lasting storm surge, resulted in disastrous flooding in Houston. It was the second costliest natural disaster in US history. Moreover, it is recognised that, by not considering compound flooding, the risk to Houston and elsewhere had been, and still is, greatly underestimated.In CHANCE we will deliver a new integrated approach, incorporating all the spatial and temporal dependencies between the four main source drivers of flooding in coastal regions. This will allow us to make a step change in our understanding and prediction of the source mechanisms driving compound flood events in coastal areas around the North Atlantic basin. We will address the following key questions:1. Where do (and where don't) compound events occur and which combinations of source-variables are most important in different regions?2. Which weather types favour the occurrence of compound events and will the frequency of compound events increase/decrease in the future as weather patterns change?3. What is the likelihood and spatial extent of compound events in different regions?4. How do compounding effects from multiple flood sources exacerbate impacts to coastal communities?We will do this through a series of methodological innovations (e.g., novel dependence analyses and state-of-the art weather typing approaches, along with inventive multivariate extreme value analysis techniques and advanced ensemble hydrodynamic modelling) that not only have relevance to the serious issue of compound flooding, but which will also be transferable to other cascading hazards in the earth and environmental sciences, such as: heat waves, drought and bush fires; extreme rainfall, landslides and cliff falls; earthquake and tsunami; and river discharge and turbidity currents. Our new methods will enable us to fully assess and predict all the source variables associated with compound flood events and their spatial extents in coastal regions (past, present and future) and will result in a major advance in the way compound flooding is understood, quantified and managed.

洪水是所有自然灾害中最危险和代价最高的。从1980年到2013年，洪水造成的损失超过1万亿美元，全球至少有22万人死亡。超过50%的死亡和大部分损失发生在人口稠密的低洼沿海地区，特别是沿海-河流交界处。因此，继续提高我们对洪水的认识至关重要。在沿海地区，洪水往往是由多种因素造成的。洪水可能是由于以下因素的共同发生而引起的：（1）风暴潮加上天文潮汐（风暴潮）和/或（2）本地或远程（涌浪）产生的波浪;但也可能是由于强降水，通过（3）增加河流流量（河流）和/或（4）直接径流（洪水）。迄今为止，大多数洪水风险评估都分别考虑了这四个主要的洪水驱动因素。然而，当海洋（风暴潮和波浪）、河流和/或洪积洪水源同时或连续发生时，沿海地区洪水的不利后果可能会大大加剧，这种情况被称为“复合洪水”，可能导致不成比例的极端事件。尽管复合事件具有很高的影响潜力，但人们对它们的了解仍然很少，这在很大程度上是因为缺乏关于驱动因素相互依存关系的信息，而这种相互依存关系因地而异，而且人们认为分析这些相互依存关系所需的联合概率分析方法存在困难。这就是为什么世界气候研究计划极端事件大挑战将气候复合事件确定为国际研究优先事项的原因。最近的一个复合事件的例子是与2017年哈维飓风有关的事件。创纪录的降雨量、河流流量和径流，再加上温和但持续时间长的风暴潮，导致休斯顿发生了灾难性的洪水。这是美国历史上损失第二大的自然灾害。此外，人们认识到，由于没有考虑复合洪水，休斯顿和其他地方的风险一直被大大低估，现在仍然是。在机会中，我们将提供一种新的综合方法，将沿海地区洪水的四个主要来源驱动因素之间的所有空间和时间依赖关系结合起来。这将使我们能够在理解和预测北大西洋盆地沿海地区复合洪水事件的来源机制方面做出重大改变。我们将解决以下关键问题：1。复合事件在哪里发生（在哪里不发生），在不同地区，哪些源变量的组合是最重要的？2.哪种天气类型有利于复合事件的发生，随着天气模式的变化，复合事件的频率在未来会增加/减少吗？3.不同区域发生复合事件的可能性和空间范围如何？4.多个洪水源的复合效应如何加剧对沿海社区的影响？我们将通过一系列方法创新来实现这一目标（例如，新的相关性分析和最先进的天气分类方法，沿着创造性的多元极值分析技术和先进的整体流体动力学建模），这些方法不仅与严重的复合洪水问题有关，而且还可以转移到地球和环境科学中的其他级联灾害，如热浪、干旱和丛林火灾;极端降雨、山体滑坡和悬崖福尔斯;地震和海啸;以及河流流量和浊流。我们的新方法将使我们能够充分评估和预测与复合洪水事件及其在沿海地区的空间范围（过去，现在和未来）相关的所有源变量，并将导致复合洪水的理解，量化和管理方式的重大进步。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns

DOI：
10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021
发表时间：
2021-07-06
期刊：
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Camus, Paula;Haigh, Ivan D.;Nicholls, Robert J.
通讯作者：
Nicholls, Robert J.

Daily synoptic conditions associated with occurrences of compound events in estuaries along North Atlantic coastlines

与北大西洋海岸线河口复合事件发生相关的每日天气状况

DOI：
10.1002/joc.7556
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
International Journal of Climatology
影响因子：
0
作者：
Camus, Paula;Haigh, Ivan D.;Wahl, Thomas;Nasr, Ahmed A.;Méndez, Fernando J.;Darby, Stephen E.;Nicholls, Robert J.
通讯作者：
Nicholls, Robert J.

The temporal clustering of storm surge, wave height, and high sea level exceedances around the UK coastline