E-Rise: Earliest detection of sea-level rise accelerations to inform lead time to upgrade/replace coastal flood defense infrastructure.

有强有力的观测证据表明，全球平均海平面正在上升，预计上升速度将加快，严重威胁到英国沿海数千亿英镑的基础设施。因此，需要对海岸防御设施进行重大升级/更换，以维持现有的洪水风险管理标准。然而，这将涉及与计划的规划和实施有关的长时间筹备时间。例如，在1953年臭名昭著的北海洪水之后，修建泰晤士河屏障的计划就开始了，但直到1982年才投入使用--将近30年后！海平面的快速上升将缩短升级/更换国防基础设施的准备时间。此外，由于海平面在区域/地方尺度上明显存在相当大的年际变化，探测海平面上升速度的加速并不是一帆风顺的。我们的最新研究表明，可能需要几年到十多年的时间才能检测到明显的加速。因此，迫切需要：(1)探索能够以多快的速度检测到不同的海平面加速，并将其与升级/更换不同防御基础设施所需的准备时间进行比较；(2)评估我们是否能够更早地检测到海平面加速，从而延长可供采取行动的准备时间。这些问题对于泰晤士河口2100(TE2100)项目开创的管理不断增加的洪水风险的适应性路径方法尤为重要。尽管适应性管理计划的实质是其在需要时进行适应的能力，但只有在以下情况下才有效：(1)发现海平面显著加速上升，然后及时决定改用替代途径；(2)有适当的准备时间进行必要的适应。在他们对TE2100计划的第一次中期审查中，我们的项目合作伙伴环境署确定，他们需要做更多的工作：(1)了解他们如何识别海平面显著偏离假设预测的变化；以及(2)了解建立洪水风险管理干预措施的准备时间。我们的提案将应用之前由NERC资助的研究和其他相关研究，以更好地了解在21世纪升级/更换英国海岸周围的海防基础设施可能需要的准备时间，并评估我们是否能够更早地发现海平面加速，为采取行动提供足够的准备时间。为此，我们将建立一个积极的合作伙伴小组，讨论与探测海平面加速和交货期有关的问题、挑战和影响。然后，我们将开发一个工具箱，使我们能够：(1)使用现场数据和基于卫星的数据以及最适当的统计方法的最佳组合，(在不确定的情况下)确定可能首先识别海平面上升加速的时间；(2)估计准备时间；以及(2)估计各种海平面预测的时间。作为一个案例研究，我们将使用该工具箱来检查升级/更换泰晤士河屏障和相关防御工事的规划和工程实施要求及其相关的筹备时间。开发的工具箱、示例输出和指导说明将通过www.psmsl.org网站免费提供，以供更广泛的使用。这项研究将具有变革性，因为这些输出将允许我们的合作伙伴(环境署、EDF Energy、HR Wallingford)和更广泛的利益相关者：通过纳入有关交货期的信息来更好地规划未来；更好地监测变化；并就遵循哪种特定的适应途径做出更有效和更有信心的决定。该项目将持续1年，耗资(80%FEC)118,500 GB。关键字：海平面加速、交货期、国防升级、泰晤士河屏障

There is strong observational evidence that global mean sea levels are rising and the rate of rise is predicted to accelerate, significantly threatening hundreds of billions of pounds of infrastructure around the UK coast. Substantial upgrades/replacements to coastal defences will therefore be required to maintain existing flood risk management standards. However, this will involve long lead times relating to planning and implementation of schemes. For example, plans for building the Thames Barrier were started after the notorious 1953 North Sea flood, but the Barrier was not operational until 1982 - nearly 30 years later! Rapid rates of sea-level rise will reduce the lead time available for upgrading/replacing defence infrastructure. Moreover, detecting accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise is not straightforward, due to the considerable inter-annual variability evident in sea level at regional/local scales. Our latest research has shown that it could take years to more than a decade before discernable accelerations are detected. There is therefore an immediate need to: (1) explore how quickly different sea-level accelerations can be detected, and to compare these with the lead times that are necessary for upgrading/replacing different defence infrastructure; and (2) assess whether we could detect sea level accelerations earlier, thereby extending the lead times available for action. These issues are particular important in relation to the adaptive pathway approach for managing increasing flood risk that was pioneered in the Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) project. Although the essence of an adaptive management plan is its ability to adapt when needed, it will only be effective if: (1) a significant acceleration in sea-level rise is detected and then a decision is made in timely manner to move to an alternative pathway; and (2) there is an appropriate lead time to carry out the necessary adaptation. In their first interim review of the TE2100 plan, our project partners the Environment Agency have identified that they need to do much more to: (1) understand how they identify changes in sea level which significantly depart from the assumed projections; and (2) understand the lead times to put in place the flood risk management interventions. Our proposal will apply previous NERC-funded research and other relevant research to better understand likely lead times for upgrading/replacing coastal defence infrastructure around the UK coast over the 21st century, and assess whether we could detect sea-level accelerations earlier to provide sufficient lead time for action. To do this we will develop an active partner group to discuss the issues, challenges and implications relating to detection of sea-level accelerations and the lead times. We will then develop a toolbox that will allow us to: (1) identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations in sea-level rise might first be recognized using the best possible combination of in situ and satellite-based data and most appropriate statistical methods; and (2) to estimate the lead times; for a wide range of sea-level projections. As a case study, we will use the toolbox to examine the planning and engineering implementation requirements and their associated lead times for upgrading/replacing the Thames Barrier and associated defences. The toolbox, example outputs and the guidance notes developed will be made freely available via the www.psmsl.org website, for wider use.The study will be transformative as the outputs will allow our partners (Environment Agency, EDF Energy, HR Wallingford) and wider stakeholders to: better plan for the future by incorporating information on lead times; better monitor change; and make more effective and confident decisions as to which specific adaptive pathway to follow.The project will last 1 year and cost (80% FEC) £118,500.Key words: sea level acceleration, lead times, defence upgrades, Thames Barrier