Assessing Statistical models of Temporary River Intermittence for Decision makers (ASTRID)

临时河流（TRs）是在水文和陆地状态之间转换的景观动态特征，提供一系列栖息地和生态系统服务。它们对生态多样性、营养物质加工和水资源管理具有重要意义，并受到气候变化压力和当地人为活动的不利影响。尽管它们很重要，在水源和地下水取水的集水区很可能普遍存在，而且干燥是生态多样性的主要决定因素，但它们在监测网络和制图中代表性不足。此外，在存在测量流量或网络收缩的传统数据集的地方，它们忽略了将池塘水作为一个独特的生态重要栖息地的识别。数据的缺乏意味着对英国TRs的数量、分布和特征的了解不足。因此，有必要绘制tr的空间范围，以一种与决策者有关的方式量化它们的行为，并促进监测以最佳利用资源。该项目旨在通过三个目标来满足这些需求：1)让利益相关者参与共同设计与决策者相关的指标；2)通过培训和验证，建立英国TRs间歇性统计模型；3)绘制英国TRs的间歇性特征。每个目标都将通过一个工作包来实现。在工作包1 （WP1）中，核心活动是一个研讨会，允许主要利益相关者，特别是负责TRs管理决策的环境署水资源水文学家，参与项目的方向和有用成果的详细设计。一篇文献综述，以建立对TRs的建模间歇性的最新技术，将作为一个简要的概述。在工作包2 （WP2）中，将收集和预处理英国和法国的水文状态数据，以及包括降雨、地质、地形、河流流量在内的自变量。统计模型，包括参数和非参数方法，用于估计与利益相关者讨论中确定的间歇性度量，并进行不确定性分析以评估模型的性能。为实现第三个目标，WP3将利用敏感性分析探讨选定模型在未监测流域的可转移性。交付成果将包括整个英国TRs的估计间歇性指标，跨越许多置信度情景的层次图和不确定性分析的摘要报告。知识交流活动将针对建模确定的区域内两个不同的利益相关者群体，作为数据收集的优先事项。地图和数据集将与决策者共享和讨论，以便就适合tr的干旱和水资源评估的下一步措施征求意见。其次，将邀请当地兴趣团体使用苏黎世大学现有的公民科学应用程序CrowdWater参与数据收集活动。将举行两个讲习班，每个优先领域一个，上午和下午的议程针对两组利益攸关方。研究成果将在高影响力期刊上发表，并在两次学术会议上发表。第一个以国家为重点，将使对tr研究和管理感兴趣的生态学家、水文生态学家和河流管理者能够参与其中。第二届会议将是欧洲地球科学联盟（European Geoscience Union）大会，其重点是国际。

Temporary rivers (TRs) are dynamic features of the landscape that transition between hydrological and terrestrial states, providing a range of habitats and ecosystem services. They are important for ecological diversity, nutrient processing and water resources management and adversely impacted by the pressures of climate change and local anthropogenic activities. Despite their importance, their likely prevalence in headwaters and groundwater-fed catchments, and the role of drying as the primary determinant in ecological diversity, they are underrepresented in monitoring networks and mapping. Furthermore, where traditional datasets of gauged flows or network contraction exist, they overlook the identification of ponded water as a distinct and ecologically important habitat. The lack of data means that there is an inadequate understanding of the number of TRs in the UK, their distribution and characteristics. There is therefore a need to map the spatial extent of TRs, to quantify their behaviour in a way that is relevant for decision makers, and to promote monitoring with optimal use of resources. This project aims to address these needs with three objectives: 1) Engage stakeholders in co-designing metrics relevant for decision-makers; 2) Statistical modelling of intermittence in UK TRs through training and validating; 3) Mapping the characteristics of intermittence in UK TRs.Each objective will be delivered by a work package. In Work Package 1 (WP1) the core activity is a workshop to allow key stakeholders, most notably Environment Agency water resource hydrologists responsible for decision making on the management of TRs, to engage in the direction of the project and the detailed design of useful deliverables. A literature review to establish the state-of-the-art of modelling intermittence on TRs will be delivered as a brief synopsis. In Work Package 2 (WP2), hydrological state data in England and France, and independent variables including rainfall, geology, topography, river flow will be collected and pre-processed. Statistical models, including parametric and non-parametric approaches, for estimating metrics of intermittence identified in discussion with the stakeholders will be assessed, and uncertainty analysis conducted to assess model performance. In addressing the third objective, WP3 will explore the transferability of selected models to unmonitored catchments using sensitivity analysis. Deliverables will comprise estimated intermittence metrics for TRs throughout the UK, hierarchy maps spanning a number of confidence scenarios and a summary report of the uncertainty analysis. Knowledge exchange activities will target two distinct groups of stakeholders in regions identified by the modelling as priorities for data collection. Maps and datasets will be shared and discussed with decision makers to seek views on the next steps for TR-appropriate drought and water resource assessment. Secondly, local interest groups will be invited to engage in data collection activities using the existing University of Zurich citizen science app, CrowdWater. Two workshops, one in each priority area will take place, with morning and afternoon agendas tailored to the two groups of stakeholders. Research findings will be published in a high impact journal, and presented at two academic meetings. The first, with a national focus, will enable engagement with ecologists, hydroecologists and river managers with an interest in the study and management of TRs. The second, with an international focus, will be the General Assembly of the European Geoscience Union.