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STORMY-WEATHER: Plausible storm hazards in a future climate

暴风雨天气：未来气候中可能出现的暴风雨危害

基本信息

批准号：
NE/V004166/1
负责人：
Hayley Jane Fowler
金额：
$ 45.1万
依托单位：
Newcastle University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV004166%2F1
关键词：
STORMY WEATHER Plausible storm hazards

项目摘要

Climate change is arguably the biggest challenge facing people this century, and changes to the intensity and frequency of climatic and hydrologic extremes will have large impacts on our communities. The 2017 Climate Change Risk Assessment identified floods and windstorms as likely to have a strong impact on key infrastructure sectors in the UK with climate change. Extreme rainfall is becoming more intense with warming, and short-duration bursts within storms appears to be increasing at a higher rate. However, we still don't understand how changes in large scale atmospheric patterns, the storm track, the release of energy from evaporation and other factors will influence the profile of the storm in time and as well as their frequencies and how long they last for. This is partly due to the fact that most scientific studies have concentrated on 'peak intensity' changes over fixed durations, e.g. daily, multi-day, hourly, etc. Alongside this, most studies look at the likely range of change even though the most important risks rarely lie within this range. Instead, the most important risks are often associated with the 'plausible worst case' scenario. In STORMY-WEATHER we are producing a new methodology based on different 'storm' types to understand the drivers behind the changes and to produce a set of physically-plausible high-impact storm hazard storylines and metrics that people can use to plan for the future. These will use the latest climate projections. We use climate models to tell us about what weather in the future will be like and these computer models are based on fundamental physical laws and complicated mathematical equations which necessarily simplify real processes. One of the simplifications that really seems to matter is that of deep convection (imagine the type of processes that cause a thunderstorm). However, computers are so powerful now that we are able to produce models that work on smaller and smaller scales, and recently we have developed models which we call "convection-permitting" where we stop using these simplifications of deep convection. These "convection-permitting" models are not necessarily better at simulating mean rainfall or rainfall occurrence but they are much better at simulating intense rainfall over short time periods (less than one day) which cause flooding, in particular flash-flood events. They are also better at simulating the increase in heavy rainfall with temperature rise that we can observe; therefore we are more confident in their projections of changes in heavy rainfall for the future.We will use these new models as well as global climate models more commonly used to assess the uncertainty in our projections of the future. We will consider changing temperatures as the potential driver of change to storm hazards, including precipitation and wind as joint hazards. Our storm-type approach will help clarify hazard from different rainfall mechanisms and their scaling rates with temperature, alongside combined wind and rain hazard from storms, as well as their changing nature with warming; characteristics that are vital for planning for impacts (e.g. flooding, infrastructure failure, transport and energy systems, etc.) The focus on storm properties is balanced against the need to understand the impact of potential changes to large-scale circulation patterns on storm hazards, e.g. frequency/persistence changes, and, in particular, the possibility of circulation-driven changes to the dominant event type across regions.Ultimately, we need better information on how extreme weather events might change in the future on which to make adaptation decisions and STORMY-WEATHER intends to provide this important advance, alongside translating this information into useful tools and metrics for use in climate change adaptation.

气候变化可以说是本世纪人类面临的最大挑战，气候和水文极端事件的强度和频率的变化将对我们的社区产生重大影响。2017年气候变化风险评估指出，随着气候变化，洪水和风暴可能对英国的关键基础设施部门产生强烈影响。随着气候变暖，极端降雨正变得越来越强烈，风暴中的短时间爆发似乎正在以更快的速度增加。然而，我们仍然不了解大尺度大气模式、风暴路径、蒸发释放能量等因素的变化如何影响风暴的时间、频率和持续时间。这在一定程度上是由于大多数科学研究都集中在固定时间内的“峰值强度”变化，例如每日、多日、每小时等。除此之外，大多数研究关注的是可能的变化范围，尽管最重要的风险很少在这个范围内。相反，最重要的风险往往与“看似最坏的情况”有关。在STORMY-WEATHER中，我们正在基于不同的“风暴”类型开发一种新的方法，以了解变化背后的驱动因素，并生成一套物理上合理的高影响风暴危险故事情节和指标，人们可以使用这些故事情节和指标来规划未来。它们将使用最新的气候预测。我们使用气候模型来预测未来的天气，这些计算机模型是基于基本的物理定律和复杂的数学方程，这必然会简化实际过程。其中一个真正重要的简化似乎是深层对流（想象一下导致雷暴的过程类型）。然而，现在计算机是如此强大，我们能够制作出在越来越小的尺度上工作的模型，最近我们开发了我们称之为“对流允许”的模型，我们不再使用这些对深对流的简化。这些“允许对流”的模式不一定能更好地模拟平均降雨量或降雨发生，但它们在模拟短时间内（少于一天）导致洪水，特别是山洪暴发事件的强降雨方面要好得多。它们也能更好地模拟我们观察到的随着气温上升而增加的强降雨；因此，我们对他们对未来强降雨变化的预测更有信心。我们将使用这些新模型以及更常用的全球气候模型来评估我们对未来预测的不确定性。我们将考虑温度变化作为风暴灾害变化的潜在驱动因素，包括降水和风作为共同灾害。我们的风暴类型方法将有助于澄清不同降雨机制的危害及其随温度的尺度率，以及风暴的风雨综合危害，以及它们随变暖而变化的性质；对风暴特性的关注与理解大规模环流模式的潜在变化对风暴危害的影响（例如，频率/持续性变化，特别是环流驱动的跨区域主要事件类型变化的可能性）的需要是平衡的。最终，我们需要关于未来极端天气事件可能如何变化的更好信息，以便做出适应决策，而STORMY-WEATHER打算提供这一重要进展，同时将这些信息转化为用于气候变化适应的有用工具和指标。