Facilitating Stochastic Simulation for UK Climate Resilience

促进英国气候适应能力的随机模拟

• 批准号: NE/W007037/1
• 负责人: Hayley Jane Fowler
• 金额: $ 8.99万
• 依托单位: Newcastle University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW007037%2F1
• 关键词: Facilitating; Stochastic; Simulation; UK; Climate

Weather generators are tools that simulate realistic sequences of climate patterns based on statistical methods incorporating randomness. This means that they can be described as "stochastic", i.e. they can generate a wide range of possible patterns (or realisations) of precipitation, temperature and other variables in space and time. This is a very useful capability, given that weather is highly variable and we need to be prepared for different sequences and types of extreme events.Weather generators are a vital tool for building climate resilience, as they bridge the gap between climate models and applications. Climate models are slow to run, such that only a limited number of realisations of future climates are available, especially when using high resolution models. Weather generators are much faster and so offer a means of better sampling climate variability and extremes, while also downscaling model projections to locally relevant scales. However, it is difficult for practitioners to make the best use of weather generators in many real-world projects, such as assessments of changing flood risks. Substantial issues remain in the acceptance, usability, flexibility, performance and functionality of weather generators, despite their advanced capabilities. In addition, there are no standardised tools for incorporating state-of-the-art UK climate model projections (UKCP18) into weather generator simulations.This project will therefore seek to facilitate wider use of weather generators in climate resilience applications. By working with industry-leading experts at JBA Consulting, the project will develop open software tools to expedite the setup, application and analysis of a leading weather generator, including in future scenarios based on cutting-edge UKCP18 projections. Evaluation, scoping and prototyping exercises in a live case study project of the Thames basin will improve understanding of tool limitations and identify potential improvements, while also facilitating knowledge exchange across sectors. Project workshops involving a range of external participants will enhance impact and dissemination amongst the wider UK climate resilience community.

天气发生器是一种工具，它基于纳入随机性的统计方法来模拟真实的气候模式序列。这意味着它们可以被描述为“随机的”，即它们可以产生一系列可能的降水、温度和其他空间和时间变量的模式(或实现)。这是一项非常有用的能力，因为天气高度多变，我们需要为不同序列和类型的极端事件做好准备。天气发生器是建立气候适应能力的重要工具，因为它们弥合了气候模型和应用程序之间的差距。气候模型的运行速度很慢，因此只有有限数量的未来气候实现可用，特别是在使用高分辨率模型时。天气发生器的速度要快得多，因此提供了一种更好地对气候变异性和极端情况进行采样的方法，同时还将模型预测缩小到当地相关的尺度。然而，对于实践者来说，在许多现实世界的项目中，例如评估不断变化的洪水风险，很难充分利用天气发生器。尽管天气发生器具有先进的能力，但在接受度、可用性、灵活性、性能和功能方面仍存在重大问题。此外，目前还没有将最先进的英国气候模型预测(UKCP18)纳入天气发生器模拟的标准化工具。因此，该项目将寻求促进天气发生器在气候弹性应用中的更广泛使用。通过与JBA咨询公司的行业领先专家合作，该项目将开发开放软件工具，以加快领先天气发生器的设置、应用和分析，包括在基于尖端UKCP18预测的未来场景中。泰晤士河流域实况案例研究项目的评价、范围确定和原型制作工作将增进对工具局限性的了解，确定可能的改进之处，同时也促进跨部门的知识交流。有一系列外部参与者参加的项目研讨会将加强在更广泛的英国气候复原力社区中的影响和传播。