Facilitating Stochastic Simulation for UK Climate Resilience

天气产生器是一种工具，它可以基于包含随机性的统计方法来模拟真实的气候模式序列。这意味着它们可以被描述为“随机的”，即它们可以在空间和时间中产生降水，温度和其他变量的广泛可能模式（或实现）。这是一个非常有用的能力，因为天气变化很大，我们需要为不同的序列和类型的极端事件做好准备。天气发生器是建设气候适应能力的重要工具，因为它们弥补了气候模型和应用之间的差距。气候模式运行缓慢，因此只有有限数量的未来气候实现是可用的，特别是在使用高分辨率模式时。天气生成器的速度要快得多，因此提供了一种更好的采样气候变化和极端事件的方法，同时还将模式预测缩小到与当地相关的尺度。然而，从业者很难在许多现实世界的项目中充分利用天气生成器，比如评估不断变化的洪水风险。尽管气象发电机具有先进的性能，但在可接受性、可用性、灵活性、性能和功能方面仍存在实质性问题。此外，没有标准化的工具将最先进的英国气候模式预估（UKCP18）纳入天气发生器模拟。因此，该项目将寻求促进天气发电机在气候适应应用中的更广泛使用。通过与JBA咨询公司业内领先的专家合作，该项目将开发开放式软件工具，以加快领先天气发电机的设置、应用和分析，包括基于前沿UKCP18预测的未来情景。在泰晤士盆地的实际案例研究项目中进行评估、范围界定和原型设计练习，将提高对工具局限性的理解，并确定潜在的改进措施，同时促进跨部门的知识交流。包括一系列外部参与者的项目研讨会将加强在更广泛的英国气候适应社区中的影响和传播。

Weather generators are tools that simulate realistic sequences of climate patterns based on statistical methods incorporating randomness. This means that they can be described as "stochastic", i.e. they can generate a wide range of possible patterns (or realisations) of precipitation, temperature and other variables in space and time. This is a very useful capability, given that weather is highly variable and we need to be prepared for different sequences and types of extreme events.Weather generators are a vital tool for building climate resilience, as they bridge the gap between climate models and applications. Climate models are slow to run, such that only a limited number of realisations of future climates are available, especially when using high resolution models. Weather generators are much faster and so offer a means of better sampling climate variability and extremes, while also downscaling model projections to locally relevant scales. However, it is difficult for practitioners to make the best use of weather generators in many real-world projects, such as assessments of changing flood risks. Substantial issues remain in the acceptance, usability, flexibility, performance and functionality of weather generators, despite their advanced capabilities. In addition, there are no standardised tools for incorporating state-of-the-art UK climate model projections (UKCP18) into weather generator simulations.This project will therefore seek to facilitate wider use of weather generators in climate resilience applications. By working with industry-leading experts at JBA Consulting, the project will develop open software tools to expedite the setup, application and analysis of a leading weather generator, including in future scenarios based on cutting-edge UKCP18 projections. Evaluation, scoping and prototyping exercises in a live case study project of the Thames basin will improve understanding of tool limitations and identify potential improvements, while also facilitating knowledge exchange across sectors. Project workshops involving a range of external participants will enhance impact and dissemination amongst the wider UK climate resilience community.