SWERVE - Severe Weather Events Risk and Vulnerability Estimator

SWEVE - 恶劣天气事件风险和脆弱性估算器

基本信息

批准号：
EP/F037422/1
负责人：
Hayley Jane Fowler
金额：
$ 59.5万
依托单位：
Newcastle University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2008
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2008 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FF037422%2F1
关键词：
SWERVE Severe Weather Events Risk

项目摘要

There is now a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is changing in ways that are likely to have a large impact on our society and the natural environment over the coming decades. Global warming, and its impact on extreme weather events, may have a profound influence on the way we live in the future. Recent extreme weather events, such as the unusual number of hurricanes in the US 2005 hurricane season, the unprecedented flooding in central Europe insummer 2002, the tragic loss of life in the European heatwave the following summer, or the severity of flooding in the UK during autumn 2000, have been said to be a possible impact of global warming by the media. This has made us focus our attention on the possible impacts of future climate change on our society but most recent research has focussed on predictions of change in the future frequency and intensity of extreme weather events at a global or regional scale. However, to well-adapt our society to the future impacts of climate change and extreme weather events, we need to know how these events will affect local communities, how they may respond and what emergency and long term planning measures need to be undertaken to increase their resilience. The SWERVE (Severe Weather Events Risk and Vulnerability Estimator) tool will examine these and other fundamental research questions through collaboration with other experts in the UK in an inter-disciplinary research programme called CREW: Community Resilience to Extreme Weather. SWERVE will use information from global climate models and a technique called downscaling to produce relevant information on extreme weather at the local, community level. This will allow us to estimate how often different types of extreme weather, such as floods, storms, drought, heatwaves, etc., may happen both now and in the future. It will also allow us to identify 'hotspots' of risk, where communities may be vulnerable to more than one type of extreme weather event, e.g. they may suffer from floods in the winter and drought in the summer. Using additional modelling tools we will be able to identify locations at risk from these types of extreme weather events down to the postcode level. This information will then be used together with information on our society to identify communities and locations that are particularly vulnerable. The overall output will be a toolkit that decision-makers can use when faced with planning and management decisions for coping with extreme weather events. This will increase the ability of the community to deal with the aftermath and to plan to reduce the impacts of extreme weather.The CREW programme will be a pilot study for a toolkit that could be produced across the UK. The pilot study will focus on the SE London Resilience Zone and engage stakeholders from this region and others across the UK in the development of the toolkit. This will ensure that it is what you and local emergency services, town planners and local government need. We will also look at whether the tool will be useful by applying it to some 'what-if?' cases together with local decision-makers and by testing it in local firms. This new toolkit can be used by managers to design systems that are robust to the impacts of climate change; climate change that, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest report in February this year, is very likely to be caused by human activities and is likely to cause an increase in extreme weather events.

现在有一个广泛的科学共识，即全球气候正在以未来几十年对我们的社会和自然环境产生重大影响的方式变化。全球变暖及其对极端天气事件的影响可能会对我们未来的生活方式产生深远的影响。最近的极端天气事件，例如2005年美国飓风季节的异常数量，在2002年中欧中欧洪水中造成了前所未有的洪水，第二个夏天的欧洲热浪造成的悲剧性丧生，或2000年秋天在2000年秋天在英国的严重性洪水泛滥，媒体可能会影响全球温暖的影响。这使我们将注意力集中在未来气候变化对社会的可能影响上，但最新的研究集中在全球或区域规模上极端天气事件的未来频率和强度变化的预测上。但是，要将社会适应气候变化和极端天气事件的未来影响，我们需要知道这些事件将如何影响当地社区，他们的反应方式以及需要采取什么紧急和长期计划措施来提高其韧性。 Swerve（恶劣天气事件的风险和脆弱性估计器）工具将通过与英国其他专家在名为Crew：社区对极端天气的及格性的跨学科研究计划中通过与英国其他专家的合作来研究这些和其他基本研究问题。 Swerve将使用来自全球气候模型的信息和一种称为缩减的技术，以产生有关当地社区层面的极端天气的相关信息。这将使我们能够估计不同类型的极端天气，例如洪水，风暴，干旱，热浪等，现在和将来都可能发生。它还将使我们能够确定风险的“热点”，在这种风险中，社区可能容易受到多种极端天气事件的影响，例如他们在冬季可能遭受洪水的损失，并在夏天干旱。使用其他建模工具，我们将能够从这些类型的极端天气事件到邮政编码级别识别有风险的位置。然后，这些信息将与我们社会的信息一起使用，以确定特别脆弱的社区和地点。当面对应对极端天气事件的计划和管理决策时，总体输出将是决策者可以使用的工具包。这将增加社区应对后果并计划减少极端天气影响的能力。机组人员计划将是一项可以在英国生产的工具包的试点研究。试点研究将重点关注伦敦的弹性区，并吸引该地区和英国其他其他地区的利益相关者，以开发工具包。这将确保您和当地的紧急服务，城镇规划师和地方政府所需的需求。我们还将通过将其应用于“假设什么？”是否将其应用于该工具是否有用。案件与当地决策者一起在当地公司进行测试。管理人员可以使用这个新的工具包来设计对气候变化影响的强大的系统。根据政府间气候变化在今年2月的最新报告中，气候变化很可能是由人类活动引起的，并且很可能导致极端天气事件的增加。