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SWERVE - Severe Weather Events Risk and Vulnerability Estimator

SWEVE - 恶劣天气事件风险和脆弱性估算器

基本信息

批准号：
EP/F037422/1
负责人：
Hayley Jane Fowler
金额：
$ 59.5万
依托单位：
Newcastle University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2008
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2008 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FF037422%2F1
关键词：
SWERVE Severe Weather Events Risk

项目摘要

There is now a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is changing in ways that are likely to have a large impact on our society and the natural environment over the coming decades. Global warming, and its impact on extreme weather events, may have a profound influence on the way we live in the future. Recent extreme weather events, such as the unusual number of hurricanes in the US 2005 hurricane season, the unprecedented flooding in central Europe insummer 2002, the tragic loss of life in the European heatwave the following summer, or the severity of flooding in the UK during autumn 2000, have been said to be a possible impact of global warming by the media. This has made us focus our attention on the possible impacts of future climate change on our society but most recent research has focussed on predictions of change in the future frequency and intensity of extreme weather events at a global or regional scale. However, to well-adapt our society to the future impacts of climate change and extreme weather events, we need to know how these events will affect local communities, how they may respond and what emergency and long term planning measures need to be undertaken to increase their resilience. The SWERVE (Severe Weather Events Risk and Vulnerability Estimator) tool will examine these and other fundamental research questions through collaboration with other experts in the UK in an inter-disciplinary research programme called CREW: Community Resilience to Extreme Weather. SWERVE will use information from global climate models and a technique called downscaling to produce relevant information on extreme weather at the local, community level. This will allow us to estimate how often different types of extreme weather, such as floods, storms, drought, heatwaves, etc., may happen both now and in the future. It will also allow us to identify 'hotspots' of risk, where communities may be vulnerable to more than one type of extreme weather event, e.g. they may suffer from floods in the winter and drought in the summer. Using additional modelling tools we will be able to identify locations at risk from these types of extreme weather events down to the postcode level. This information will then be used together with information on our society to identify communities and locations that are particularly vulnerable. The overall output will be a toolkit that decision-makers can use when faced with planning and management decisions for coping with extreme weather events. This will increase the ability of the community to deal with the aftermath and to plan to reduce the impacts of extreme weather.The CREW programme will be a pilot study for a toolkit that could be produced across the UK. The pilot study will focus on the SE London Resilience Zone and engage stakeholders from this region and others across the UK in the development of the toolkit. This will ensure that it is what you and local emergency services, town planners and local government need. We will also look at whether the tool will be useful by applying it to some 'what-if?' cases together with local decision-makers and by testing it in local firms. This new toolkit can be used by managers to design systems that are robust to the impacts of climate change; climate change that, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest report in February this year, is very likely to be caused by human activities and is likely to cause an increase in extreme weather events.

现在有一个广泛的科学共识，即全球气候正在发生变化，可能在未来几十年对我们的社会和自然环境产生重大影响。全球变暖及其对极端天气事件的影响可能对我们未来的生活方式产生深远影响。最近的极端天气事件，如美国2005年飓风季节的飓风数量异常，2002年夏季中欧前所未有的洪水，次年夏季欧洲热浪造成的悲惨生命损失，或2000年秋季英国洪水的严重程度，都被媒体说成是全球变暖的可能影响。这使我们把注意力集中在未来气候变化对我们社会的可能影响上，但最近的研究主要集中在预测全球或区域范围内极端天气事件未来频率和强度的变化上。然而，为了让我们的社会更好地适应气候变化和极端天气事件的未来影响，我们需要知道这些事件将如何影响当地社区、他们如何应对以及需要采取哪些紧急和长期规划措施来提高他们的复原力。SWERVE（恶劣天气事件风险和脆弱性估计）工具将通过与英国其他专家合作，在一个名为CREW的跨学科研究计划中研究这些和其他基础研究问题：社区对极端天气的适应能力。SWERVE将利用来自全球气候模型的信息和一种称为降尺度的技术，在地方和社区一级产生有关极端天气的信息。这将使我们能够估计不同类型的极端天气，如洪水，风暴，干旱，热浪等，现在和将来都可能发生。它还将使我们能够确定风险的“热点”，社区可能容易受到一种以上类型的极端天气事件的影响，例如，他们可能在冬季遭受洪水，在夏季遭受干旱。使用额外的建模工具，我们将能够从这些类型的极端天气事件中识别出处于风险中的位置，直到邮政编码级别。这些信息将与我们社会的信息一起用于确定特别脆弱的社区和地点。总体产出将是一个工具包，供决策者在面临应对极端天气事件的规划和管理决策时使用。这将提高社区处理后果和计划减少极端天气影响的能力。CREW方案将是一个试点研究，可在联合王国各地制作一个工具包。试点研究将侧重于东南伦敦弹性区，并让该地区和联合王国其他地区的利益攸关方参与开发工具包。这将确保这是你和当地紧急服务，城市规划者和当地政府需要的。我们还将通过将该工具应用于一些“假设”来研究该工具是否有用。与当地决策者一起研究案例，并在当地公司进行测试。管理人员可以利用这一新工具包设计出能够抵御气候变化影响的系统;根据政府间气候变化专门委员会今年2月的最新报告，气候变化极有可能是由人类活动造成的，并有可能导致极端天气事件的增加。