FUTURE-DRAINAGE: Ensemble climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage

未来排水：可持续排水的气候变化降雨量估计

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S017348/1
负责人：
Hayley Jane Fowler
金额：
$ 18.24万
依托单位：
Newcastle University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS017348%2F1
关键词：
FUTURE DRAINAGE Ensemble climate change

项目摘要

The new climate projections from the UK have just been released and as part of this, next year, there will be the release of outputs from a number of very high resolution climate models across the UK. These models are able to represent the daily cycle of rainfall, and rainfall characteristics like intensity, duration and frequency of occurrence, much better than coarser resolution models that have been used previously and can therefore help us to understand how short-duration intense rainfall events and flash floods might change in the future. Here we propose to couple them, for the first time, with new, high-resolution flood models for small rapid response catchments, like Boscastle, or urban areas that suffer from flash floods. Together they will be used to update guidance for urban drainage design and methods for urban surface water flood risk assessment in the UK: priorities identified in the National Flood Resilience Review (2016) and restated in the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee's UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Synthesis Report: Appendix on Urgency Scoring Tables which identified "Risks of sewer flooding due to heavy rainfall" as an area where "more action is needed to deliver sustainable drainage systems, upgrade sewers where appropriate and tackle drivers increasing surface runoff (e.g. impermeable surfacing in urban areas)." This will include new 'uplifts' that can be applied to design storm events to represent climate change effects on storms and recommendations on the updates of existing methods and tools used to tackle surface water flooding.FUTURE-DRAINAGE will add to the evidence-base for the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment and the National Adaptation Programme; and is aligned with the UK Government's 25 Year Environment Plan (2018), specifically the goal of reducing risk of harm from environmental hazards and of adapting to climate by improving climate resilience in the UK. The importance of revised rainfall uplifts and new guidance for UK urban drainage design and urban flood resilience is evidenced in the letters of support our project team has solicited from UK water and sewerage companies, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and informal support from the Environment Agency who considers the work is of particular relevance to applications in surface water management and design of storm water systems. Therefore, FUTURE-DRAINAGE will deliver nationally important research outputs for uptake by government agencies and industrial sectors to improve climate change adaption and resilience in the UK.

英国的新气候预测刚刚发布，作为明年的一部分，将从英国的许多高分辨率气候模型中发布产出。这些模型能够代表降雨的每日周期，以及降雨特征，例如强度，持续时间和发生频率，比以前已使用过的更粗的分辨率模型要好得多，因此可以帮助我们了解短期强烈的强烈降雨事件和山洪泛滥可能会在未来发生变化。在这里，我们提议首次将它们与新型的高分辨率洪水模型相结合，用于小型快速响应集水区，例如Boscastle或遭受山洪洪水的城市地区。它们将共同用于更新英国城市地表水洪水风险评估的城市排水设计和方法的指南：在国家洪水弹性审查（2016年）中确定的优先级（2016年），并在英国适应的英国委员会副委员会的气候变化风险评估2017 2017年的气候变化风险评估2017年的综合报告：在较重的范围内，这些浪费的危险范围是造成的，这些行动是造成较重的行动，即降低了“无需降级”。排水系统，在适当的情况下升级下水道，并瞄准驾驶员增加地面径流（例如，在城市地区不可渗透的表面）。”这将包括可应用于设计风暴事件的新“隆升”，以代表气候变化对风暴的影响，并建议对解决地表水泛滥的现有方法和工具的更新。Future-Drainage将增加对英国气候变化风险评估和国家适应计划的证据。并与英国政府的25年环境计划（2018年）保持一致，特别是通过改善英国的气候弹性来降低环境危害和适应气候的伤害风险。在我们的项目团队的支持信中证明了修订后的降雨提升和对英国城市排水设计和城市洪水复原力的新指南的重要性，我们的项目团队从英国水和下水道公司，苏格兰环境保护署，苏格兰环境保护署和环境局的非正式支持中征求了对地表水管理和雨水系统中的应用。因此，未来的批准将为政府机构和工业部门的吸收提供全国重要的研究成果，以改善英国的气候变化适应和弹性。