Control of Earth's climate(s) by the polar Southern Ocean

极地南大洋对地球气候的控制

• 批准号: NE/V014285/1
• 负责人: Alessandro Silvano
• 金额: $ 67.41万
• 依托单位: University of Southampton
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV014285%2F1
• 关键词: Control; Earth; climate; polar; Southern

How much heat and carbon will be taken up by the ocean in the future? This is one of the most pressing questions the scientific community must answer in order to help human society predict and adapt to global warming. On multidecadal to millennial time scales, the answer mostly lies in the polar (south of ~60S) Southern Ocean. Here, very dense water forms near the Antarctic coast and sinks to the abyss, driving the lower limb of the global overturning circulation and determining the ocean's ability to sequester heat and carbon in the abyss for centuries. However, a robust quantitative understanding of the mechanisms underpinning abyssal sequestration in the Southern Ocean is lacking, mainly due to the formidable challenges to the collection of measurements in this harsh and remote environment. The project aims to generate a state-of-the-art, baseline estimate of abyssal heat and carbon sequestration in the Southern Ocean, determining their controlling processes. To achieve this, I will combine recent in situ oceanographic data, satellite observations and stat-of-the-art modelling. The project will be carried out in the Department of Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton, in collaboration with multiple national (the National Oceanography Centre and the University of Liverpool) and international (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, U.S., and CSIRO, Australia) institutes. This analysis will provide a new benchmark to test our current understanding of the Southern Ocean's role in the climate system and, if necessary, drive the emergence of a new paradigm. Given the Southern Ocean regulates climate on long time scales, this new knowledge will be used in the final years of the project to test (and possibly revisit) mechanisms of glacial-interglacial transitions and abrupt past climatic changes. I will combine idealized and climate models to better understand past climate transitions, opening the way for better predicting the long term (> 50 years) future of the Earth's climate system.

未来海洋将吸收多少热量和碳？这是科学界必须回答的最紧迫的问题之一，以帮助人类社会预测和适应全球变暖。在几十年到千年的时间尺度上，答案主要在于极地（~ 60 S以南）南大洋。在这里，非常密集的水在南极海岸附近形成并沉入深渊，推动全球翻转环流的下肢，并决定了海洋在几个世纪内将热量和碳封存在深渊中的能力。然而，对南大洋深海固存的基本机制缺乏可靠的定量了解，主要原因是在这一恶劣和偏远的环境中收集测量数据面临巨大挑战。该项目旨在对南大洋的深海热和碳固存进行最先进的基线估计，确定其控制过程。为了实现这一目标，我将结合联合收割机最近的现场海洋学数据，卫星观测和最先进的建模。该项目将在南安普顿大学海洋和地球科学系内进行，并与多个国家（国家海洋学中心和利物浦大学）和国际（美国斯克里普斯海洋学研究所，和CSIRO，澳大利亚）研究所。这一分析将提供一个新的基准，以检验我们目前对南大洋在气候系统中作用的理解，并在必要时推动新范式的出现。鉴于南大洋在长时间尺度上调节气候，这一新知识将在项目的最后几年用于测试（并可能重新访问）冰川-间冰期过渡和过去气候突变的机制。我将结合联合收割机理想化和气候模型，以更好地了解过去的气候转变，开辟了更好地预测地球气候系统的长期（> 50年）未来的道路。

项目成果

Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

• DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
• 发表时间: 2024-02
• 期刊: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
• 作者: Edward Hanna;Dániel Topál;J. Box;S. Buzzard;Frazer D. W. Christie;Christine Hvidberg;M. Morlighem

Baroclinic Ocean Response to Climate Forcing Regulates Decadal Variability of Ice-Shelf Melting in the Amundsen Sea

斜压海洋对气候强迫的响应调节阿蒙森海冰架融化的年代际变化

• DOI: 10.1029/2022gl100646
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Silvano A

Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes

气候风和海冰变化导致南极底层水出口放缓

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01695-4
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Nature Climate Change
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Zhou S