Climate change impacts on global wildfire ignitions by lightning and the safe management of landscape fuels

气候变化对闪电引发的全球野火和景观燃料安全管理的影响

基本信息

批准号：
NE/V01417X/1
负责人：
Matthew Jones
金额：
$ 83.73万
依托单位：
University of East Anglia
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2022 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV01417X%2F1
关键词：
Climate change impacts global wildfire

项目摘要

2020 will be remembered not only for Covid-19, but also for its devastating wildfires. The year began with the Australian bushfires, which caused 34 deaths and over US$70 billion of damages. The wildfires that are currently burning across the Western US look set to be the costliest in US history, with over 30 people already killed directly. The wildfires of 2020 join a growing list of extreme wildfires seen in Mediterranean Europe, North America, Australia, Siberia and the Arctic in the past decade. Wildfires are strongly tied to climatic droughts, which enhance the flammability of vegetation. As drought frequency is projected to rise in future, there are serious concerns that the fires seen in recent years are a glimpse into a more fire-prone future. Lightning strikes are the dominant cause of wildfire in many regions and, for example, ignited many of the recent Australian and US fire complexes.It is critical that we understand the drivers of wildfire, build capacity to predict their future likelihood, and take steps to mitigate their impacts. Our current understanding of fires at the global scale is built around satellite observations. However, these observations are insufficient to disentangle the diverse drivers of fire; they see only patterns. Satellite observations provide a mixed signal of many different types of fire, including wildfires but also a range of fires under human control (e.g. agricultural fires and deforestation fires), meaning that observations of wildfire are 'contaminated' with other fire types. Critically, this obscures trends in wildfire activity and compromises our understanding of climate impacts on wildfire activity. The proposed project will create the first global capacity to isolate lightning-ignited wildfires from satellite observations. It will use new observations of lightning strikes from ground- and satellite-based lightning sensors to 'decontaminate' satellite observations and introduce a global dataset of lightning-ignited wildfire activity. The new dataset will be used to make key advances in the understanding of wildfires and their relationship with climate. The project will assess how wildfire activity has changed in recent decades, and it will specifically determine the climatic conditions under which lightning fires occur. This new understanding of fire drivers will be built into the UK Earth System model and used to predict the impact of climate change on wildfire activity in the future century. The new capacity to observe wildfires will also enable a major advance in the estimation of deforestation fire emissions, specifically in Amazonia which accounts around 40% of global emissions due to land use change. Deforestation fire emissions contribute to an increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and contribute to climate change. However, emissions from Amazonian deforestation fires are known to be overestimated because emissions from lightning-ignited wildfires are undesirably included in the estimates. The new record of lightning-ignited wildfires developed in this study will be used to correct the emissions estimates and discount wildfires that occur as part of a natural disturbance-recovery cycle in the region.Finally, this project will evaluate our future capacity to manage the threats of wildfires in a changing climate using conventional approaches to forest fuel management. It is common in some regions (e.g. Australia and the western US) to manage forest fuel stocks by burning off the most flammable fuels on the forest floor. However, this practice can only be applied safely during cool, moist, wind-free weather that occur in an annual 'window' of opportunity. It is feared that this window will narrow in future due to climate change. In this project, climate model outputs will be used to predict change in the window to 2100, informing forest management agencies of their future challenges and resource needs.

2020年，不仅在19日期，而且还会记住它的毁灭性野火。这一年始于澳大利亚丛林大火，造成34人死亡，损失超过700亿美元。目前在美国西部燃烧的野火看起来是美国历史上最昂贵的，已经有30多人直接杀死了。在过去的十年中，2020年的野火加入了越来越多的极端野火清单。野火与气候干旱密切相关，从而增强了植被的易燃性。随着干旱频率预计将来会增加，人们严重担心的是，近年来看到的大火瞥见了更容易发生火灾的未来。闪电袭击是许多地区野火的主要原因，例如，引发了许多最近的澳大利亚和美国火灾综合体。至关重要的是，我们必须了解野火的驱动力，建立能够预测其未来可能性的能力，并采取措施减轻其影响。我们目前对全球大规模火灾的理解是围绕卫星观测来建立的。但是，这些观察结果不足以消除各种火灾的驱动力。他们只看到模式。卫星观察结果提供了许多不同类型的火灾的混合信号，包括野火，以及在人类控制下的一系列火灾（例如，农业火灾和森林砍伐火灾），这意味着对野火的观察被其他火力污染了。至关重要的是，这掩盖了野火活动的趋势，并损害了我们对气候对野火活动的影响的理解。拟议的项目将创建首个全球能力，以将闪电命中式野火与卫星观测隔离开来。它将利用从地面和基于卫星的闪电传感器到“去污染”卫星观察的新观察结果，并引入了全球闪电命令野火活动的数据集。新数据集将用于在理解野火及其与气候的关系方面取得关键的进步。该项目将评估近几十年来野火活动的变化，并将特别确定发生闪电大火的气候条件。对消防驱动因素的这种新理解将被内置在英国地球系统模型中，并用于预测未来世纪气候变化对野火活动的影响。观察野火的新能力还将在估计森林砍伐的火灾排放量中取得重大进步，特别是在亚马逊群岛，占由于土地使用变化而占全球排放量的40％。森林砍伐的火灾排放有助于增加二氧化碳浓度，并导致气候变化。但是，已知亚马逊森林砍伐火灾的排放被高估了，因为估计中不必要地包括了闪电命令的野火的排放。这项研究中开发的闪电命令野火的新记录将用于纠正该地区自然干扰恢复周期的一部分发生的排放估算和折扣野火。最后，该项目将评估我们未来的能力，以使用常规的森林燃料管理方式来管理不断变化的气候中野火的威胁。在某些地区（例如澳大利亚和美国西部）很常见，可以通过燃烧森林地面上最易燃的燃料来管理森林燃料库存。但是，只有在每年的“机会窗口”中发生的凉爽，潮湿，无风的天气中，才能安全地应用这种做法。人们担心，由于气候变化，此窗口将在未来范围内缩小。在该项目中，气候模型输出将用于预测窗口中的变化2100，从而告知森林管理机构的未来挑战和资源需求。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Global Carbon Budget 2021

DOI：
10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022
发表时间：
2022-04-26
期刊：
EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Friedlingstein, Pierre;Jones, Matthew W.;Zeng, Jiye
通讯作者：
Zeng, Jiye

Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change

DOI：
10.1029/2020rg000726
发表时间：
2022-07-01
期刊：
REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS
影响因子：
25.2
作者：
Jones, Matthew W.;Abatzoglou, John T.;Le Quere, Corinne
通讯作者：
Le Quere, Corinne

The black carbon cycle and its role in the Earth system

DOI：
10.1038/s43017-022-00316-6
发表时间：
2022-07-07
期刊：
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
影响因子：
42.1
作者：
Coppola, Alysha I.;Wagner, Sasha;Jones, Matthew W.
通讯作者：
Jones, Matthew W.

Extratropical forests increasingly at risk due to lightning fires

DOI：
10.1038/s41561-023-01322-z
发表时间：
2023-11
期刊：
Nature Geoscience
影响因子：
18.3
作者：
Thomas A. J. Janssen;Matthew W. Jones;D. Finney;G. R. van der Werf;Dave van Wees;Wenxuan Xu;S. Veraverbeke
通讯作者：
Thomas A. J. Janssen;Matthew W. Jones;D. Finney;G. R. van der Werf;Dave van Wees;Wenxuan Xu;S. Veraverbeke

Global Carbon Budget 2023

2023 年全球碳预算