NI: Pyroclastic Density Current Partnership (PDCP): A global partnership to align numerical models and experimental techniques.

NI：火山碎屑密度流合作伙伴关系 (PDCP)：协调数值模型和实验技术的全球合作伙伴关系。

• 批准号: NE/W003767/1
• 负责人: Thomas Jones
• 金额: $ 10.39万
• 依托单位: University of Liverpool
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW003767%2F1
• 关键词: NI; Pyroclastic; Density; Current; Partnership

Ten percent of the world's population (i.e. 100s of millions) live within 100 km of an active volcano. Furthermore, this number is set to rise with the increasing global population. During all explosive volcanic eruptions pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) can form - high temperature mixtures of rock and gas that rapidly flow away from the volcanic vent. These phenomena are the most lethal of all volcanic hazards and are responsible for more than a third of volcanic related fatalities. Furthermore, the accompanying ash clouds have the potential to cause global disruption and significant economic loss due to air-space closure. However, despite the lethal nature of PDCs we currently lack accurate models to forecast these flows and thus any hazard maps and mitigation strategies are inherently limited. To improve our numerical models we need to understand the complex internal flow dynamics within these 'opaque' and hazardous flows. Direct internal observation is not possible, but controlled laboratory experiments (PI's lab focus) offer a way to rigorously study these otherwise hidden phenomena. This seedcorn fund will partner a complimentary team of global PDC experts with the PI's experimental laboratory to align future experimental efforts with numerical PDC models. The members of this partnership have been strategically selected to ensure that, in combination with the PI's lab, a full research programme can be delivered - from unravelling the fundamental physics and incorporation into PDC flow models to direct real-world impact. Specifically members include unique, internationally renowned, numerical modelers who have all developed PDC models to forecast flow run-out and, in some cases, directly inform hazard maps for a range of volcanoes worldwide. Scientists from the government agencies and volcano observatory networks involved (e.g. the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology; the British Geological Survey) will formally communicate advances in volcanic hazard and risk to domestic and international governments, thereby providing a clear pathway to impact from this new partnership. Academics who have experience working on the field deposits and characteristics of PDC ash, including their adverse health effects, will incorporate the partnership outcomes into their work. Finally, the Met Office, home to the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), are partners who provide advice, forecasts and guidance to the aviation authorities on the presence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. This seedcorn fund will support a series of workshops and laboratory exchange visits where members will: (1) outline the known and prioritise the missing physical parameters relevant for PDC models; (2) co-design pilot experiments to fill these knowledge gaps and (3) produce proof-of-concept data that will be used as a basis for future, longer term grant applications. The final outcome will be a long-lasting partnership that is equipped to tackle timely research questions surrounding deadly, pyroclastic flows using state-of-the-art multidisciplinary methods. Subsequent research led by this team will, for example, forecast the spatial extent of deadly pyroclastic flows and the subsequent atmospheric dispersal of PDC produced, volcanic ash. Ultimately this will minimise the human and economic cost of explosive volcanic eruptions around the world and is an outcome only achievable through complimentary, global partnership.

世界人口的百分之十（即数以亿计）生活在离活火山100公里的范围内。此外，随着全球人口的增加，这一数字将上升。在所有火山爆发的过程中，火山碎屑密度流（PDC）会形成岩石和气体的高温混合物，并迅速从火山口流出。这些现象是所有火山灾害中最致命的，占火山相关死亡人数的三分之一以上。此外，伴随而来的火山灰云有可能造成全球混乱，并因空域关闭而造成重大经济损失。然而，尽管PDCs的致命性，我们目前缺乏准确的模型来预测这些流量，因此任何危险地图和缓解策略是固有的限制。为了改进我们的数值模型，我们需要了解这些“不透明”和危险的流动中复杂的内部流动动力学。直接的内部观察是不可能的，但受控的实验室实验（PI的实验室重点）提供了一种严格研究这些隐藏现象的方法。该种子基金将与PI的实验室合作，组建一个由全球PDC专家组成的免费团队，以使未来的实验工作与PDC数值模型保持一致。该合作伙伴关系的成员经过战略性选择，以确保与PI的实验室相结合，可以提供完整的研究计划-从解开基础物理和纳入PDC流动模型到直接现实世界的影响。具体来说，成员包括独特的，国际知名的，数值建模谁都开发了PDC模型，以预测流量流失，并在某些情况下，直接通知危险地图的一系列火山世界各地。来自政府机构和火山观测网络（如意大利国家地球物理和火山学研究所;英国地质调查局）的科学家将正式向国内和国际政府通报火山灾害和风险方面的进展，从而为这一新伙伴关系的影响提供明确的途径。具有PDC灰的现场沉积物和特性（包括其对健康的不利影响）工作经验的学者将把伙伴关系的成果纳入他们的工作中。最后，英国气象局是伦敦火山灰咨询中心（VAAC）的所在地，是向航空当局提供有关大气中火山灰存在的建议、预报和指导的合作伙伴。该种子基金将支持一系列研讨会和实验室交流访问，成员将：（1）概述与PDC模型相关的已知物理参数并优先考虑缺失的物理参数;（2）共同设计试点实验以填补这些知识空白;（3）产生概念验证数据，将用作未来长期赠款申请的基础。最终的结果将是一个长期的伙伴关系，有能力利用最先进的多学科方法及时解决围绕致命的火山碎屑流的研究问题。例如，该团队领导的后续研究将预测致命火山碎屑流的空间范围以及随后PDC产生的火山灰的大气扩散。最终，这将最大限度地减少世界各地爆发性火山爆发的人力和经济成本，只有通过互补的全球伙伴关系才能实现这一成果。