NSFGEO-NERC: A general model for bubble nucleation and growth in volcanic systems

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Volcanic eruptions are driven by the formation and growth of bubbles in magma. The timing of bubble formation and the rate of bubble growth control the type of the eruption, and determine the nature of eruption products. We need to understand bubble nucleation and growth in order to meet one of the grand challenges in volcanology: forecasting the onset, size, duration, and resultant hazards of explosive eruptions. We will conduct new experiments that replicate the conditions inside the sub-volcanic plumbing system, and will measure the characteristics of the bubbles that form as we vary those conditions. We will use the results to create new computational models for bubble formation and link those to existing models for bubble growth. This will create a general tool that will allow the volcanology community to predict the conditions under which bubbles form in magma as it rises to the surface, and the rate at which the bubbles grow. These models will help us to predict how magma will behave during volcanic eruptions, and to interpret the materials that are erupted.