Secondary forest permanence in the Brazilian Amazon

巴西亚马逊次生林的永久性

• 批准号: NE/T014490/1
• 负责人: Jos Barlow
• 金额: $ 1.49万
• 依托单位: Lancaster University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT014490%2F1
• 关键词: Secondary; forest; permanence; Brazilian; Amazon

NERC : Charlotte Caroline Smith : NE/L002604/1As atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to rise, there is a growing need to focus our attention on climate change mitigation. In order to keep the global surface temperature increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid dangerous climate change, large quantities of carbon dioxide need to be removed from the atmosphere. Forest restoration is one of the most efficient and cost-effective strategies for achieving this, with tropical secondary forest key to recovering carbon stocks. The carbon benefit of secondary forest, which grows on cleared land following abandonment, is determined not only by its extent but also by its permanence. However, the patterns of secondary forest persistence are complex and our understanding of them is limited. A better understanding of this system will allow more realistic estimates of secondary forest carbon potential and will enable forest restoration efforts to be targeted more effectively. Although some studies have estimated the likelihood of persistence on a local scale, no such predictions exist across large regions. This limits our understanding of the tropical carbon balance, which is fundamental in regulating global climate. Secondary forest is a valuable resource and it is vital that we improve our understanding of it so we can ensure its potential carbon benefits are achieved.Drawing on previous work, we will expand local-scale models of secondary forest dynamics to encompass the entire Brazilian Amazon. We will model the probability of secondary forest growth and clearance using landscape factors (e.g. distance from roads) and forest characteristics (e.g. patch size) known to influence forest permanence and estimate the carbon potential of future secondary forest cover. This is a first step in improving our understanding of an ecosystem with increasing ecological and economic importance so that it can be appropriately accounted for in future policy decisions.Climate change is a global challenge, affecting economies and communities indiscriminately. As policy-makers around the world seek to understand how it can be mitigated, reforestation presents one of the most efficient, cost-effective and readily available strategies for preventing a climate disaster2. This project will contribute to ensuring that we have a sufficient understanding of secondary forest ecosystems which, if harnessed effectively, could act as a buffer while we transition to sustainable, fossil-fuel free economies. The Brazilian Amazon is vast and changes in its carbon balance have climate implications of global significance. In conducting this research across the entire region, we extend its relevance beyond local decision-makers into the international climate policy arena. The outputs will be relevant for international collaborations modelling future climate, policymakers interested in harnessing regeneration for carbon storage, and the broader scientific community studying the tropical carbon balance.Beyond scientific output, this project will foster a lasting, collaborative relationship between two leading universities. It will combine the ecology and biodiversity expertise of Lancaster University with the remote sensing and spatial analysis specialties of the group at the University of British Columbia; resulting in innovative new research that pushes the boundaries of current environmental models. This interdisciplinary collaboration will enable the sharing of resources to break down former technological and data-access barriers to generate increased impact and streamline the research process. Joint research efforts will enable the sharing of world-class facilities and will facilitate the development of graduate students into highly skilled, global citizens.

NERC：夏洛特·卡罗琳·史密斯：NE/L002604/1随着大气中二氧化碳的持续上升，我们越来越需要将注意力集中在减缓气候变化上。为了将全球表面温度升高控制在1.5摄氏度以下并避免危险的气候变化，需要从大气中去除大量二氧化碳。森林恢复是实现这一目标的最有效和最具成本效益的战略之一，热带次生林是恢复碳储量的关键。次生林生长在废弃后清理的土地上，其碳效益不仅取决于其范围，还取决于其持久性。然而，次生林持续存在的模式很复杂，我们对它们的了解有限。更好地了解该系统将能够更现实地估计次生林碳潜力，并使森林恢复工作更有针对性。尽管一些研究估计了局部范围内持续存在的可能性，但在大范围内不存在这样的预测。这限制了我们对热带碳平衡的理解，而热带碳平衡对于调节全球气候至关重要。次生林是一种宝贵的资源，我们必须提高对它的了解，以便确保实现其潜在的碳效益。借鉴之前的工作，我们将扩大次生林动态的本地规模模型，以涵盖整个巴西亚马逊地区。我们将利用已知影响森林持久性的景观因素（例如距道路的距离）和森林特征（例如斑块大小）对次生林生长和清理的概率进行建模，并估计未来次生林覆盖的碳潜力。这是提高我们对生态系统日益增加的生态和经济重要性的认识的第一步，以便在未来的政策决策中能够适当地考虑到它。气候变化是一个全球性挑战，不加区别地影响经济和社区。当世界各地的政策制定者寻求了解如何减轻气候灾难时，重新造林是预防气候灾难最有效、最具成本效益和最容易获得的战略之一2。该项目将有助于确保我们对次生森林生态系统有足够的了解，如果有效利用，它可以在我们向可持续、无化石燃料经济过渡时起到缓冲作用。巴西亚马逊地区幅员辽阔，其碳平衡的变化对气候产生了具有全球意义的影响。通过在整个地区开展这项研究，我们将其相关性从当地决策者扩展到了国际气候政策领域。这些成果将与模拟未来气候的国际合作、对利用碳储存再生感兴趣的政策制定者以及研究热带碳平衡的更广泛的科学界相关。除了科学产出之外，该项目还将促进两所领先大学之间持久的合作关系。它将把兰卡斯特大学的生态学和生物多样性专业知识与不列颠哥伦比亚大学小组的遥感和空间分析专业知识相结合；从而产生突破当前环境模型界限的创新研究。这种跨学科合作将实现资源共享，打破以前的技术和数据访问障碍，从而产生更大的影响并简化研究过程。联合研究工作将能够共享世界一流的设施，并将促进研究生发展成为高技能的全球公民。