OLDEST-OLD MORTALITY ACROSS GENERATIONS

发达国家死亡率的年龄轨迹是否有一个共同的模式 在最古老的国家？这种模式，尽管有不同的 参数值，适用于地中海果蝇、墨西哥果蝇、西印度果蝇， 果蝇？男性与女性死亡率的年龄轨迹 融合还是交叉？近几十年来取得了多大的进展 降低80岁以后的死亡率 本研究项目旨在通过以下方式解决这些问题： 基于理论的建模和数据集的统计分析， 经过严格的可靠性检查， 帮助未来的研究人员。 具体而言，在拟议的研究中，我们将： (1)扩展、更正、存档和完整发布（使用公共使用文件） 按性别分列的死亡计数、人口计数和死亡数据集 50岁以后直至最高年龄的死亡率 年龄，几十年来，如果可能的话， 在至少28个发达国家，包括美国， States. (2)应用各种方法检查数据的可靠性，包括 这些数据集的一些创新的LIGHT-MAP方法。 (3)改进死亡率队列方法， 仅根据死亡人数数据对尚未灭绝的群体进行估计。 (4)分析这些数据以确定年龄段死亡率的轨迹 性别和国家之间的差异，重点是死亡率 80岁以后，重点是寻找统一的、潜在的模式， 帮助我们理解衰老和死亡的机制 (5)分析地中海果蝇、墨西哥果蝇和西印度果蝇的数据， 类似的问题。 (6)分析果蝇按基因型和染色体分类的数据 用于确定基因型和基因的死亡轨迹的标记 (i.e.,对于共享相似染色体区域的群体），再次 考虑与目标4类似的问题，目标是 确定是否可以开发“包容性”死亡率模型， 在种群、物种和基因型之间保持一致。

Is there a common pattern in the age-trajectory of mortality in developed countries at oldest-old ages? Does this pattern, albeit with different parameter values, hold for Medflies, Mexflies, West Indian fruitflies, and Drosophila? Do age trajectories of mortality for males vs. females converge or crossover? How much progress has been made in recent decades in reducing mortality after age 80? This research project is designed to address these questions through theory-based modeling and statistical analysis of data sets that will be rigorously checked for reliability and achieved and published in full to aid future researchers. Specifically, in the proposed research we will: (1) Extend, correct, archive, and publish in full (with public use files) a data set on sex-specific death counts, population counts, and death rates after age 50 and up to the highest ages attained by single year of age, by single year of time for several decades, and when possible, by year of birth, in at least 28 developed countries including the United States. (2) Apply various methods of checking data for reliability, including some innovative Lexis-map methods to these data sets. (3) Refine extinct-cohort methods so that mortality rates can be estimated for not-yet-extinct cohorts based only on death count data. (4) Analyze these data to determine trajectories of mortality over age and time, between sexes, and across countries, with a focus on mortality after age 80 and with emphasis on finding unifying, underlying patterns that aid understanding of the mechanisms of aging and death. (5) Analyze data on Medflies, Mexflies, and West Indian fruitflies with similar questions in mind. (6) Analyze data on Drosophila classified by genotype and by chromosomal markers to determine mortality trajectories for genotypes and for genes (i.e., for populations that share similar chromosomal regions), again with questions in mind similar to those in aim 4, and with the goal of determining whether "inclusive" mortality models can be developed that hold across populations, species, and genotypes.