Exploring low-carbon transition responses in the global oil industry

要实现《巴黎协定》将全球气温上升幅度稳定在“远低于”2摄氏度的目标，就需要在本世纪下半叶实现二氧化碳净零排放。这意味着油气行业必须对其业务模式进行深度转型，包括对其上游和中游流程进行彻底变革，并对不可避免的二氧化碳（CO2）排放进行补偿。如果说一些公司已经从石油产品转型，那么大多数行业才刚刚开始意识到这种转型所隐含的战略挑战。提出了不同的缓解战略，即通过对可再生电力、沼气和运输部门先进燃料的大量投资实现核心商业模式的多样化，以及利用温室气体清除技术（主要是碳捕获和储存（CCS）和碳捕获、使用和储存（CCUS））补偿不可避免的排放。虽然需要这些初步尝试为讨论奠定初步基础，但有必要了解缓解战略在资源有限的世界中的影响，即对碳汇能力的限制、土地、水、矿物的可得性、可用资金、与生态系统服务的冲突等。了解石油部门的缓解战略在不与其他可持续发展目标相冲突的情况下可以在多大程度上付诸实施，创造方法和工具来了解不同战略的交叉影响，包括财务和社会指标（资本支出、运营支出、股本回报率等），将是极其重要的。这项研究将建立在现有的建模框架的基础上，该框架是由CDP的全球工作为石油和天然气部门开发的。这包括制定一个基于科学的行业目标方法的分析框架，以及评估该行业在投资、风险管理和温室气体排放方面的雄心的框架。如果成功，本研究提案将：1)将石油部门转型计划与实现《巴黎协定》目标所需的减缓目标进行比较，从资源限制和财政角度确定其实际实施面临的挑战；2)制定方法和分析工具，参照温室气体缓解以外的其他可持续发展目标，评估这些战略的可行性；3)与油气行业代表和行业协会进行对话，讨论其转型战略；4)参与碳披露项目（CDP）技术工作组的工作，以科学/基于目标的设定和评估低碳转型方法。这一建议将使人们更好地了解石油和天然气工业的准确减排潜力、地球范围内的局限性以及与其他可持续发展目标的冲突。学生应该对建模工作和可持续发展有浓厚的兴趣。这项建议需要定量和定性技能的结合。预计该学生将在CDP伦敦和/或其他相关办事处工作至少3个月。”

"Meeting the Paris Agreement goal of stabilising the global temperature rise to "well-below" 2C will require reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in the second half of this century. This means that the Oil & Gas industry must go through a deep transformation of their business models, including radical changes in their upstream and midstream processes and offset systems to compensate unavoidable carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. If some companies have already transitioned out of the petroleum products, most of the sector is just starting to wake up for the strategic challenges implied by this transition. Different mitigation strategies have been proposed, namely diversification of the core business models with large investments on renewable electricity, biogas, and advanced fuels for the transport sector, and compensation of unavoidable emissions with greenhouse gas removal technologies, mainly Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS). While these first attempts are needed to set up an initial basis for discussions, it is necessary to understand the implications of mitigation strategies in a resource-constrained world, i.e., limits on carbon sink capacity, availability of land, water, minerals, available finance, conflicts with ecosystem services, among others. Understanding to what extent mitigation strategies of the petroleum sector can be put into practice without conflicting with other sustainable development goals, creating methodologies and tools to understands the cross-cutting impacts of the different strategies, including financial and social indicators (CAPEX, OPEX, return on equity, etc.) will be of extreme importance.This research will build on existing modelling frameworks developed by CDP's global work for the Oil & Gas sector. This includes the development of an analytical framework based on the science-based target methodology for the sector and frameworks that assess the ambitious of the sector in terms of investments, risk management, and GHG emissions. If successful, this research proposal will: 1) Compare the petroleum sector transition plans against the mitigation targets required to reach the Paris Agreement goal, identifying challenges on their practical implementation from a resource constraint and financial perspective; 2) Develop methodologies and analytical tools to assess the viability of those strategies in the light of other sustainable development goals beyond GHG mitigation; 3) Engage in dialogues with Oil & Gas representatives and trade associations in discussing their transition strategies; 4) Engage in Carbon Disclosure Project's (CDP) Technical Working Groups working on the science/based target setting and assessing low-carbon transition methodologies. This proposal will lead to an improved understanding of the accurate mitigation potentials of the Oil & Gas industry and the limitations within the planetary boundaries and conflicts with other sustainable development goals. The student should have strong interests in modelling work and sustainable development. This proposal requires a combination of quantitative and qualitative skills. It is anticipated that the student will spend at least 3 months at CDP London and/or other relevant offices. "