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Using citrus disease as a model for scaling from disease control for individual growers to strategies for regional control

使用柑橘病害作为模型，从个体种植者的病害控制扩展到区域控制策略

基本信息

批准号：
1804491
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University of Cambridge
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-1804491
关键词：
Using citrus disease model scaling

项目摘要

Theme: Agriculture and Food SecurityCitrus production in the United States, Brazil and worldwide is threatened by a number of exotic pathogens, most notably citrus canker and citrus greening. Due to intensive research interest and particularly the availability of good epidemiological data, most notably detailed disease surveys at both local and regional scales, citrus is an excellent model system for food security threats to agricultural and horticultural crops more generally. A number of recent models of citrus diseases have targeted spread at scales relevant to individual producers, often tracking the disease status of individual plants within a planting. However, these models can be extended in a number of ways, such as more faithfully representing the effects of control strategies, accounting for within-host pathogen dynamics, including environmental drivers, accounting for selection pressures caused by preferential removal of symptomatic hosts, and, for citrus greening, vector dynamics. In practice, success of control in protecting threatened regions will depend on matching the temporal and spatial scales of control with the inherent scales of pathogen and vector populations. However, models of large-scale spread dynamics have not yet been developed. Scaling-up smaller-scale models to track spread at spatial scales would allow landscape-scale control to be understood and assessed. The PhD project would use mathematical modelling to simulate the spread of citrus canker and to identify the best control methods to reduce the spread of disease. There is the opportunity to look at other diseases and to examine how the models produced can be used across a variety of different diseases. The project will involve incorporating biological knowledge into a mathematical model, simulating disease spread and analysing the impact of factors such as different control methods and environmental and spatial changes. This will involve complex modelling in both R Studio and Python, as well as a need to graphically represent results in a clear and concise way.

布景主题：农业和粮食安全美国、巴西和全世界的柑橘生产受到一些外来病原体的威胁，最明显的是柑橘溃疡病和柑橘绿化。由于研究兴趣浓厚，特别是可获得良好的流行病学数据，特别是在地方和区域范围内进行的详细疾病调查，柑橘是更普遍地对农业和园艺作物的粮食安全威胁的一个很好的模型系统。最近的一些柑橘疾病模型针对与个体生产者相关的规模传播，通常跟踪种植中个体植物的疾病状况。然而，这些模型可以通过多种方式进行扩展，例如更忠实地表示控制策略的效果，考虑宿主内病原体动态，包括环境驱动因素，考虑优先去除有症状的宿主所造成的选择压力，以及柑橘绿化，矢量动态。在实践中，控制在保护受威胁地区方面的成功将取决于控制的时间和空间尺度与病原体和病媒种群的固有尺度相匹配。然而，大规模蔓延动态模型尚未开发。扩大较小规模的模型来跟踪空间尺度上的扩散，将使人们能够理解和评估小规模的控制。该博士项目将使用数学建模来模拟柑橘溃疡病的传播，并确定减少疾病传播的最佳控制方法。有机会研究其他疾病，并研究如何将所产生的模型用于各种不同的疾病。该项目将涉及将生物知识纳入数学模型，模拟疾病传播，分析不同控制方法以及环境和空间变化等因素的影响。这将涉及R Studio和Python中的复杂建模，以及以清晰简洁的方式以图形方式表示结果的需求。