INNOVATIVE LATENT CURVE MODELS OF ADOLESCENT DRUG USE

青少年药物使用的创新潜曲线模型

• 批准号: 6379008
• 负责人: PATRICK J CURRAN
• 金额: $ 22.83万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-07-01 至 2003-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6379008
• 关键词: adolescence (12-20); behavior prediction; child psychology; clinical research; computer simulation; conduct disorder; drug abuse; human data; longitudinal human study; middle childhood (6-11); model design /development; pathologic process; psychological models; substance abuse related behavior

The proposed research project is a first submission of an R01 application by a young investigator. The project draws directly upon developmental theories of substance use and conduct problems to identify important research questions that are currently difficult to evaluate empirically and would greatly benefit from the development of new quantitative methodologies. The proposal is organized around three major goals. First, a new class of innovative longitudinal models of individual differences in change over time will be developed with the explicit purpose of allowing powerful, flexible and dynamic empirical tests of developmental trajectories of substance use. These new models will allow for the estimation of a variety of multivariate latent curve models that are more robust to non-normality and model misspecification, that incorporate two- and three-way interactions among latent growth factors in the prediction of later problem behaviors, and that simultaneously examine characteristics of multiple developmental trajectories before and after important life transitions. Second, the validity and utility of these new quantitative methods will be closely evaluated with particular emphasis on future applications in studies of substance use over time. Evaluation of these new models will primarily be accomplished through the use of comprehensive computer simulations that will focus on finite sampling characteristics that are commonly encountered in applied longitudinal research of substance use and abuse including small sample size, multivariate non-normality, and model misspecification. Third, these new models will be applied to a high quality existing longitudinal data set to examine the course, causes and consequences of co-occurring developmental trajectories of conduct problems and substance use in a large sample of adolescents. Data will be drawn from an existing longitudinal study of over 1000 adolescents ranging in age from 9 to 18 assessed once a year for four years. Application of the newly developed quantitative, methods to this data will allow for a detailed evaluation of a number of theoretically derived research hypotheses including questions about reciprocal developmental relations between substance use and conduct problems over time, interactions between trajectories of conduct problems and substance use in the prediction of later problem behavior, and the effects of school and pubertal transitions on these developmental trajectories. The empirical applications will also serve to demonstrate and disseminate the newly developed models to a wide audience of applied substance use researchers. The unifying goal of the proposed project is to focus extended effort on explicitly linking the fields of quantitative methodology and applied developmental psychopathology to create and disseminate a new class of innovative statistical models that are optimally suited for studying individual differences in developmental trajectories of substance use over time.

拟议的研究项目是一位年轻研究者首次提交的 R01 申请。 该项目直接利用物质使用和行为问题的发展理论来确定目前难以凭经验评估的重要研究问题，并将极大地受益于新定量方法的发展。 该提案围绕三个主要目标组织。 首先，将开发一类新的创新纵向模型，用于描述随时间变化的个体差异，其明确目的是允许对物质使用的发展轨迹进行强大、灵活和动态的实证测试。 这些新模型将允许估计各种多元潜在曲线模型，这些模型对非正态性和模型错误指定更加稳健，在预测后期问题行为中纳入潜在生长因子之间的双向和三向相互作用，并同时检查重要生命转变之前和之后的多个发展轨迹的特征。 其次，将密切评估这些新定量方法的有效性和实用性，特别强调未来在物质使用研究中的应用。 这些新模型的评估将主要通过使用全面的计算机模拟来完成，该模拟将重点关注物质使用和滥用的应用纵向研究中常见的有限抽样特征，包括小样本量、多变量非正态性和模型错误指定。 第三，这些新模型将应用于现有的高质量纵向数据集，以研究大量青少年样本中行为问题和物质使用同时发生的发展轨迹的过程、原因和后果。 数据将来自一项现有的纵向研究，该研究对 1000 多名 9 至 18 岁的青少年进行了评估，为期四年，每年进行一次评估。 将新开发的定量方法应用于这些数据将允许对许多理论上得出的研究假设进行详细评估，包括物质使用和行为问题之间随着时间的推移相互发展关系的问题，行为问题轨迹和物质使用在预测以后问题行为中的相互作用，以及学校和青春期过渡对这些发展轨迹的影响。 实证应用还将有助于向广大应用物质使用研究人员展示和传播新开发的模型。 拟议项目的统一目标是集中精力将定量方法论和应用发展精神病理学领域明确联系起来，以创建和传播一类新型创新统计模型，该模型最适合研究物质使用随时间发展轨迹的个体差异。