Impacts of climate change on the vulnerability of Inuit Arctic food systems

该项目旨在查明和描述决定当前和未来因因纽特人区域中心气候变化而易受粮食不安全影响的因果因素。将通过以下目标审查各种暴露敏感性，包括气候和人为因素：a)开发新的方法，通过应用“背景脆弱性”方法，更好地理解和确定粮食不安全及其根本原因(O‘Brien等人，2007年；B)了解和描述区域因纽特人人口中心(例如兰金湾)气候和非气候脆弱性对粮食安全的影响，以及可能产生的积极反馈机制(如果有的话)。c)根据目标a)和b)，审查社区未来对未来气候变化对粮食安全影响的潜在脆弱性和适应能力，并结合气候情景确定和审查适应机会，以缓解气候变化对粮食安全的影响方法：评估粮食安全的主要脆弱性包括年龄、性别、收入、社会资本、对传统方法(即狩猎、觅食、捕鱼)、土著知识和以工资为基础的经济的依赖程度。为了收集这些领域的数据，本项目提出了以下方法：1.系统审查已发表的文献(同行评议，灰色)，以确定和描述环极北部土著人口粮食不安全的知识状况，并特别注意气候因素的作用。建立一个问卷框架，并辅之以个别访谈，该框架将审查关键暴露敏感性的流行情况及其对粮食不安全的各自影响，并记录和描述影响粮食系统的各种因素。样本量至少占总人口的7%--目标是至少300名受试者--并调查按年龄、性别、收入和社会资本细分的一系列人口统计数据。在社区规模的利益攸关方研讨会上实施参与性情景规划，全球循环模型(GCM)为情景的创建提供信息，以更好地了解决策网络和土著人口中心内的本地化适应能力。由于气候未来越来越不确定，在自然环境和人类环境之间发展日益复杂和多方面的关系时，从未像现在这样迫切需要了解加拿大极北地区社会、政治和经济复原力即将面临的障碍的范围(北极理事会，2016年)。尽管国家、区域和地方制定了应对粮食不安全问题的战略，并评估了整个北极和亚北极地区天然和人为食物系统的脆弱性，但许多社区面临的风险正在逐步增加(NFSC，2016)。截至2016年，努纳武特地区37315总人口中有69%被归类为粮食不安全--这一数字比全国其他地区高出61%(NFSC，2016；国家统计局，2016)。尽管如此，与世界其他地区相比，对这种差异的研究一直很有限，主要集中在规模较小、更加孤立的努纳武特社区(Ford，2009年；Prno等人，2011年)。很少有论文研究可能影响更大、人口更多的北极/南亚住区的粮食安全率从而影响健康的关键因素，或者甚至假设当前气候变化情景对粮食安全的未来影响。为了在极地和亚极地区域内的各种社会和人口要素中有效地鼓励和维持应对粮食短缺的复原力和适应能力，解决这一研究差距至关重要。

This project aims to identify and characterise the causal factors determining present-day and potentialfuture vulnerability to food insecurity as a result of climate change in regional Inuit centres. Variousexposure-sensitivities, both climatic and anthropogenic, will be examined through the followingobjectives: -a) Develop novel approaches to better understand and qualify food insecurity, and its root causes, throughthe application of a 'contextual vulnerability' approach (O'Brien et al., 2007; Clark et al., 2016).b) Understand and characterize the influence of climatic and non-climatic vulnerability to food insecurityat a regional Inuit population centre (e.g. Rankin Inlet), and the positive feedback mechanisms, if any,that may result.c) Examine the potential future vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities to future climatechange impacts on food security, drawing upon objectives a) and b), and integrating climate scenariosd) Identify and examine opportunities for adaptation to moderate the effects of climate change impacts onfood securityMethodology:Key vulnerabilities against which food security will be assessed include age, gender, income, socialcapital, level of dependence upon traditional methods (i.e. hunting, foraging, fishing), indigenousknowledge, and wage-based economy. In order to collect data in these areas, this project proposes thefollowing methods:1. Systematic review of published literature (peer reviewed, grey) to identify and characterize thestate of knowledge on food insecurity for indigenous populations across the circumpolar north,with particular attention to the role of climatic factors.2. Construct a questionnaire framework, augmented by individual interviews, which will examinethe prevalence of key exposure-sensitivities and their respective impact upon food insecurity,and document and characterize various factors affecting food systems. Sample size is intendedto account for a minimum 7% of the total population - aiming for at least 300 subjects - andsurvey a range of demographics, broken down on age, gender, income and social capital.3. Implement participatory scenario planning at community-scale stakeholder workshops, withglobal circulation models (GCM) informing the creation of scenarios, to develop a greaterunderstanding of decision-making networks and localised adaptive capacity within theindigenous population centres.In developing increasingly complex and multi-faceted relationships between natural and anthropogenicenvironments, courtesy of an ever-more uncertain climatic future, there has never been a more criticalneed to understand the scope of forthcoming obstacles to social, political and economic resilience inCanada's Far North (Arctic Council, 2016). Despite national, regional and local strategies to combat foodinsecurity and assess the fragility of natural and anthropogenic food systems across the Arctic andSubarctic, many communities are subject to progressively increasing risk (NFSC, 2016). As of 2016, 69%of a total population of 37,315 in Nunavut territory were classified as food insecure - a value 61% greaterthan the remainder of the nation (NFSC, 2016; NBS, 2016). In spite of this, research into this disparityhas been limited as compared with other areas of the world, and has primarily focused upon smaller, moreisolated Nunavut communities (Ford, 2009; Prno et al., 2011). Few papers have examined the key factorsthat may affect rates of food security, and therefore health, in larger, more populous Arctic/Subarcticsettlements, or gone so far as to hypothesise the future implications of current climate change scenarioson food security. In order to effectively encourage and sustain resilienceand adaptive capacity over food scarcity across the entire range of social and demographic elementswithin the polar and sub-polar regions, addressing this research gap is of critical importance.