Impacts of climate change on the vulnerability of Inuit Arctic food systems

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This project aims to identify and characterise the causal factors determining present-day and potentialfuture vulnerability to food insecurity as a result of climate change in regional Inuit centres. Variousexposure-sensitivities, both climatic and anthropogenic, will be examined through the followingobjectives: -a) Develop novel approaches to better understand and qualify food insecurity, and its root causes, throughthe application of a 'contextual vulnerability' approach (O'Brien et al., 2007; Clark et al., 2016).b) Understand and characterize the influence of climatic and non-climatic vulnerability to food insecurityat a regional Inuit population centre (e.g. Rankin Inlet), and the positive feedback mechanisms, if any,that may result.c) Examine the potential future vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities to future climatechange impacts on food security, drawing upon objectives a) and b), and integrating climate scenariosd) Identify and examine opportunities for adaptation to moderate the effects of climate change impacts onfood securityMethodology:Key vulnerabilities against which food security will be assessed include age, gender, income, socialcapital, level of dependence upon traditional methods (i.e. hunting, foraging, fishing), indigenousknowledge, and wage-based economy. In order to collect data in these areas, this project proposes thefollowing methods:1. Systematic review of published literature (peer reviewed, grey) to identify and characterize thestate of knowledge on food insecurity for indigenous populations across the circumpolar north,with particular attention to the role of climatic factors.2. Construct a questionnaire framework, augmented by individual interviews, which will examinethe prevalence of key exposure-sensitivities and their respective impact upon food insecurity,and document and characterize various factors affecting food systems. Sample size is intendedto account for a minimum 7% of the total population - aiming for at least 300 subjects - andsurvey a range of demographics, broken down on age, gender, income and social capital.3. Implement participatory scenario planning at community-scale stakeholder workshops, withglobal circulation models (GCM) informing the creation of scenarios, to develop a greaterunderstanding of decision-making networks and localised adaptive capacity within theindigenous population centres.In developing increasingly complex and multi-faceted relationships between natural and anthropogenicenvironments, courtesy of an ever-more uncertain climatic future, there has never been a more criticalneed to understand the scope of forthcoming obstacles to social, political and economic resilience inCanada's Far North (Arctic Council, 2016). Despite national, regional and local strategies to combat foodinsecurity and assess the fragility of natural and anthropogenic food systems across the Arctic andSubarctic, many communities are subject to progressively increasing risk (NFSC, 2016). As of 2016, 69%of a total population of 37,315 in Nunavut territory were classified as food insecure - a value 61% greaterthan the remainder of the nation (NFSC, 2016; NBS, 2016). In spite of this, research into this disparityhas been limited as compared with other areas of the world, and has primarily focused upon smaller, moreisolated Nunavut communities (Ford, 2009; Prno et al., 2011). Few papers have examined the key factorsthat may affect rates of food security, and therefore health, in larger, more populous Arctic/Subarcticsettlements, or gone so far as to hypothesise the future implications of current climate change scenarioson food security. In order to effectively encourage and sustain resilienceand adaptive capacity over food scarcity across the entire range of social and demographic elementswithin the polar and sub-polar regions, addressing this research gap is of critical importance.