Why Some Generations Are More Violent Than Others

描述(由申请者提供)：暴力比率因代而异。最初感兴趣的是，随着时间的推移，这些差异是由于队列之间的差异还是社会和环境因素的差异。要回答的主要问题是“为什么有些世代比其他世代更暴力？”回答这个问题是我的职业目标。我的职业目标是通过将我扎实的伤害研究和流行病学基础与心理学、犯罪学和统计学的新技能结合起来，成为暴力趋势过程的独立研究员。我的目的是进一步了解为什么暴力发生率会随着时间的推移而变化，并弥合不同学科之间的差距，以便能够评估这一多因素的公共卫生问题。对于暴力水平为什么会随着时间的推移而波动这一重大公共卫生问题，人们仍然缺乏经验上的解释。这些研究的主要局限性包括排除混杂因素，没有使用真实的纵向数据，以及同时存在生态和个人主义谬误。目前还不清楚暴力趋势，存在各种不同的解释，包括某些年龄段的流行率增加(队列效应)和在某些时间段发生的社会风险因素(时段效应)。存在如此多解释的一个主要原因是，暴力趋势的原因是多方面的，并且发生在不同的层面--例如，社区和个人。对这些不同因素和水平的研究相当独立地植根于各种公共卫生、社会学和医学学科。我建议的培训计划将通过课程、研讨会和与我的职业发展委员会的一对一培训，在(1)发展心理学、(2)犯罪学和(3)高级统计学方面为我提供额外的技能。我们通过我们的第一代模型对PY进行了初步分析，发现队列效应因时期效应而变得微不足道，这表明社会因素对暴力趋势的重要性。我的研究项目提出了一系列分析，最终形成了第二代模型--我们提出的暴力情境发展模型。这个模型将通过纳入社会和环境因素，在我的导师罗尔夫·勒伯为这一提议开发的已知个人发展路径上进行扩展。从这些目标和这项提案产生的未来工作中获得的知识可以用来帮助将公共卫生和刑事司法预防方案整合到一个整体方案中，该方案将比过去的许多努力更有效(49)。针对暴力的人、环境和工具因素的主要、次要和第三级战略最终将成为可能。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Violence rates fluctuate from generation to generation. Of initial interest is whether these differences over time are due to differences between cohorts or differences in social and environmental factors. The primary question to be answered is "Why are some generations more violent than others?" It is my career goal to answer this question. My career goal is to become an independent researcher on the processes of violence trends by coupling my solid foundation of injury research and epidemiology with new skills in psychology, criminology and statistics. My aim is to further our knowledge about why violence rates change over time and bridge the gap between various disciplines to be able to assess this multi-factorial public health problem. Empirical explanations are still longing on the major public health problem of why the level of violence fluctuates over time. Major limitations of these studies include the exclusion of confounders, not utilizing true longitudinal data, and the presence of both the ecologic and individualistic fallacies. Currently violence trends are not clearly understood and a diversity of contrasting explanations exists, including increased prevalence in certain age cohorts (cohort effect) and social risk factors occurring during certain periods of time (period effect). A major reason that so many explanations exist is that the causes for violence trends are multifactorial and occur at different levels - e.g., the community and the individual. The study of these various factors and levels are rooted rather independently in various public health, sociologic, and medical disciplines. The training program I propose will provide me with additional skills in (1) developmental psychology, (2) criminology and (3) advanced statistics through classes, seminars, and one-on-one training with my career development committee. We have conducted initial analysis of the PYS through our first generation model and have found that cohort effects are rendered insignificant by period effects, suggesting the importance of social factors on violence trends. My research program proposes a series of analyses culminating in the development of a second-generation model - our proposed contextual-developmental model for violence. This model will expand on the known individual developmental pathways developed by Rolf Loeber my mentor for this proposal, by the inclusion of social and environmental factors. Knowledge from these aims and from future work stemming from this proposal can be used to help integrate public health and criminal justice prevention programs into an overall program that will be more effective than many efforts in the past (49). Primary, secondary, and tertiary strategies aimed at the human, environmental, and instrumental elements of violence will ultimately be possible.