Predicting the ecological and societal impact of species on the move with climate change in the UK

预测英国气候变化下物种迁移的生态和社会影响

• 批准号: 2438413
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2438413
• 关键词: Predicting; ecological; societal; impact; species

There is a growing recognition that the redistribution of species driven by a changing climate is creating profound challenges for societies and regional economies around the globe. As well as having serious consequences for economic development, livelihoods, food security, human health and culture, species' redistribution is testing the limit of our understanding of ecological systems, highlighting key knowledge gaps in our ability to predict biodiversity's response to global environmental change.The global reshuffle of biodiversity distribution can be witnessed in countries like the UK, where a recent study found that at least 55 species have arrived in the country in the past decade, likely due to climate change; around 20% of these species are suspected to impact positively or negatively on recipient ecosystems, or nearby human communities. These numbers are expected to be a gross underestimate of the likely impacts of species movements on ecosystems and society, given (a) the likely underrepresentation of invertebrates in the dataset, and (b) the fact that it only focused on new arrivals, disregarding, for example, unusual blooms and mass abundances linked to climate change and known to negatively impact ecosystems and/or society.Sadly, our current ability to predict which species are altering their distribution with climate change, and what the impacts of these redistributions may be, is limited. Interdisciplinary work is critically needed to enable the quick identification of species likely to be problematic (or beneficial) and locations likely to experience significant ecological and societal positive or negative impacts from biodiversity's redistribution under a changing climate; this information is key to identify, prioritize and then mitigate or prevent future risks. Certain geographic locations may indeed be more likely to experience a higher level of societal and/or ecological pressure with the arrival of new species (e.g. those near the coast or with higher human population densities). One might also hypothesize that specific traits are associated with larger redistributions (e.g. highly mobile species) or more damaging impacts (e.g. species that are vectors for disease).This PhD project will combine unique datasets on UK climatic conditions, species ecology and distribution as well as landcover attributes with state-of-the-art quantitative approaches to understand and predict how the landscape, climate, and other factors such as individual traits speed or slow species' spread. Its outcome will provide the first comprehensive and spatially-explicit picture of how climate change may impact UK society through its impact on biodiversity in the near future, while exploring for the first time whether the ecological traits that make species likely to be good invaders are also the traits that make species likely to redistribute more efficiently in response to climate change. The developed framework will provide a demonstration of how countries can enhance their ability to mitigate the consequences of a global redistribution of biodiversity underpinned by climate change.

人们日益认识到，气候变化导致的物种重新分布正在给地球仪各地的社会和区域经济带来深刻的挑战。除了对经济发展、生计、粮食安全、人类健康和文化造成严重后果外，物种的重新分布也在考验我们对生态系统的理解，凸显出我们在预测生物多样性对全球环境变化的反应方面的关键知识差距。最近的一项研究发现，在过去十年中，至少有55种物种抵达该国，可能是由于气候变化;这些物种中约有20%被怀疑对接收生态系统或附近的人类社区产生积极或消极的影响。鉴于（a）数据集中无脊椎动物的代表性可能不足，以及（B）数据集只关注新到的物种，而忽视了与气候变化有关的、已知会对生态系统和/或社会产生负面影响的异常水华和大规模丰度，预计这些数字严重低估了物种迁移对生态系统和社会的可能影响。我们目前预测哪些物种正在随着气候变化改变其分布以及这些重新分布可能产生的影响的能力是有限的。迫切需要开展跨学科工作，以便能够快速确定可能存在问题（或有益）的物种，以及可能因气候变化下生物多样性的重新分布而遭受重大生态和社会积极或消极影响的地点;这一信息是确定、优先考虑并减轻或预防未来风险的关键。随着新物种的到来，某些地理位置可能确实更有可能经历更高水平的社会和/或生态压力（例如靠近海岸或人口密度较高的地区）。人们也可以假设特定的特征与较大的再分配有关（例如高度移动的物种）或破坏性更大的影响这个博士项目将联合收割机结合英国气候条件，物种生态和分布以及土地覆盖属性的独特数据集，采用最先进的定量方法来了解和预测景观，气候，以及其他因素，如个体特征、物种传播速度或速度。它的结果将提供第一个全面和空间明确的图片如何气候变化可能会影响英国社会通过其对生物多样性的影响在不久的将来，同时首次探索是否使物种可能是好的入侵者的生态特征也是使物种可能更有效地重新分配以应对气候变化的特征。制定的框架将展示各国如何能够加强能力，减轻气候变化造成的全球生物多样性重新分布的后果。