Assessment of hazard and risk due to induced seismicity for underground CO2 storage and oil and gas production assets.

石油和天然气的开采会引起地震活动。有问题的地震活动水平是罕见的，只发生在一小部分石油和天然气田。然而，由于地震活动频繁可能造成影响，因此有必要对灾害和风险进行认真监测和建模。这种诱发地震也是由一种用于应对气候变化的新策略引起的，特别是在二氧化碳被捕获并储存在地下水库中的情况下。准确预测未来提取/注入情景下的危害对于确保工艺安全运行至关重要。统计方法在监测策略的设计和这些灾害和风险的评估中起着重要的作用。本项目旨在改进现有的标记点模式数据的统计模型，为地震灾害的评估提供信息。随着时间的推移，该地点的地震检波器网络得到了改善，从而可以检测到较小震级的地震。这导致了地震检波器网络密度不够大无法检测所有小震级地震事件的年份数据缺失的问题。本计画将探讨一种利用极值分析的时空临界值选取方法来解决此问题。与壳牌合作。

Production of oil and gas can cause seismic activity. Problematic levels of seismic activity are rare and occur only in a small minority of oil and gas fields. However, the potential impact of high levels of seismic activity justifies careful monitoring and modelling of hazards and risks. Such induced earthquakes also arise from a new strategy used to combat climate change, specifically where CO2 is captured and stored in underground reservoirs. Accurate forecasting of hazards under scenarios for future extraction/injection is vital in ensuring the process is operated safely. Statistical methodology plays an important role in the design of monitoring strategies and in the assessment of these hazards and risks.This project aims to improve upon current statistical models of marked point pattern data to inform the assessment of seismic hazards. Improvements to the geophone network at the site over time have allowed smaller magnitude earthquakes to be detected. This leads to the problem of missing data from the years where the geophone network was not dense enough to detect all small magnitude seismic events. This project will explore a spatio-temporal threshold selection method using an extreme value analysis to address this issue. In partnership with Shell.