Assessment of hazard and risk due to induced seismicity for underground CO2 storage and oil and gas production assets.

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Production of oil and gas can cause seismic activity. Problematic levels of seismic activity are rare and occur only in a small minority of oil and gas fields. However, the potential impact of high levels of seismic activity justifies careful monitoring and modelling of hazards and risks. Such induced earthquakes also arise from a new strategy used to combat climate change, specifically where CO2 is captured and stored in underground reservoirs. Accurate forecasting of hazards under scenarios for future extraction/injection is vital in ensuring the process is operated safely. Statistical methodology plays an important role in the design of monitoring strategies and in the assessment of these hazards and risks.This project aims to improve upon current statistical models of marked point pattern data to inform the assessment of seismic hazards. Improvements to the geophone network at the site over time have allowed smaller magnitude earthquakes to be detected. This leads to the problem of missing data from the years where the geophone network was not dense enough to detect all small magnitude seismic events. This project will explore a spatio-temporal threshold selection method using an extreme value analysis to address this issue. In partnership with Shell.