Changes in Alcohol Availability and HIV Rates

描述(由申请人提供)：酒精供应和艾滋病毒/艾滋病风险的变化 被认为与减少艾滋病毒/艾滋病风险有关的结构性干预措施以矩阵的形式进行了描述(布兰肯希普、布雷等人。2000)。1997年，新奥尔良市通过了一系列政策(即增加许可证费、增加执法人员、扩大酒精许可证委员会的权力)，这是一种组织干预，以影响酒精的可获得性。作为一种结构性干预，新奥尔良的政策变化可以从它们对艾滋病毒/艾滋病风险的影响方面进行研究。为了实现这一目标，建议对酒精可及性变化对艾滋病毒/艾滋病和淋病风险的影响进行纵向研究。具体目标是： 1.为新奥尔良和巴吞鲁日地区建立一个人口普查区级数据库，其中包括关于艾滋病毒/艾滋病风险(即HARS数据)、淋病风险(即报告的淋病病例)、酒精供应情况(即酒精销售点密度数据)和社会人口风险(即人口普查数据)的12年期间(即1995年至2006年)所有区域的空间参考数据。 具体目标2.利用与人口普查区嵌套的性病发病率的重复测量设计(即多水平增长模型)，在人口普查区一级进行一对纵向分析，以评估1997年新奥尔良酒精政策变化对12年期间艾滋病毒/艾滋病和淋病发病率的影响。将讨论对其他结构级别的风险预测因素以及空间和时间自相关性的影响的控制。 研究假设1：在新奥尔良的人口普查区域中，与巴吞鲁日的人口普查区域相比，在研究期间艾滋病毒/艾滋病和淋病发病率的趋势将更加负面。研究假设2：人口普查区域酒精出口密度的变化将在很大程度上解释研究期间艾滋病毒/艾滋病和淋病发病率的趋势。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Changes in Alcohol Availability and HIV/AIDS Risk Structural interventions considered relevant to reduce HIV/AIDS risk have been characterized in terms of a matrix (Blankenship, Bray et al. 2000). In 1997 the City of New Orleans adopted a series of policies (i.e., increased license fee, additional enforcement staff, expanded powers for the alcohol license board) that represent an organizational intervention to affect the accessibility of alcohol. As a structural intervention the policy changes in New Orleans can be studied in terms of their impact on HIV/AIDS risk. To accomplish this goal a longitudinal study of the effect of changes in alcohol accessibility on HIV/AIDS and gonorrhea risk is proposed. The specific aims are: Specific Aim 1. To develop a census tract level database for New Orleans and Baton Rouge tracts that incorporates spatially referenced data on HIV/AIDS risk (i.e., HARS data), gonorrhea risk (i.e. reported gonorrhea cases), alcohol availability (i.e., alcohol outlet density data), and sociodemographic risk (i.e. census data) for all tracts over a twelve year period (i.e., 1995 through 2006). Specific Aim 2. To conduct a pair of longitudinal analysis at the census tract level utilizing a repeated measures design of STD rates nested with census tracts (i.e., multilevel growth models) to assess the effect of the 1997 New Orleans alcohol policy changes on rates of HIV/AIDS and gonorrhea over a 12 year period. Controls for additional structural level predictors of risk as well as the effects of spatial and temporal autocorrelation will be addressed. Study Hypothesis 1: Among census tracts in New Orleans the trend in HIV/AIDS and gonorrhea rates over the study period will be more negative compared with census tracts in Baton Rouge. Study Hypothesis 2: Changes in alcohol outlet density at the census tract level will explain a significant amount of the trend in HIV/AIDS and gonorrhea rates over the study period.