Should the UK go plant-based to support its' green recovery? An environmental, economic and health analysis

冠状病毒大流行严重影响了英国经济。随着我们学会控制冠状病毒并与之共存，政府正寻求走上绿色复苏之路，希望使经济恢复得更好。政府制定了一项绿色工业革命的十点计划，其中承诺转变能源部门，停止销售汽油和柴油汽车，使公共交通脱碳，发展绿色建筑，投资碳捕获和储存，以及保护我们的自然环境。改革我们的食品体系作为应对气候危机的一种手段，似乎并不是政府的优先事项。据估计，畜牧业占温室气体排放量的14.5-87%。建模研究估计，通过用植物性替代品取代肉类消费，美国人可以消除牧场的使用，同时节省35-50%的与饮食相关的农田需求、活性氮和温室气体排放（Eshel等人，2019）。拟议的工作将首次预测在英国实施含有不同数量动物产品的植物性食品系统所造成的环境影响。最先进的统计和计算模型以及敏感性分析将用于实现这一目标。调查结果将强调英国政府是否应该扩大其绿色革命的重点，包括食品生产。除了众多的环境效益外，植物性饮食还有许多据报道的健康益处，然而，数据有限，证据收集仍然需要。这个项目的一部分将用于评估食用植物性饮食对健康的影响。这将涉及随机对照试验和前瞻性队列研究的荟萃分析，分别确定植物性饮食对风险因素和疾病风险的影响。这些研究将重点关注肥胖和其他相关非传染性疾病，如糖尿病、高血压、高脂血症和心血管疾病，因为这些疾病非常普遍，会恶化健康状况、生活质量、生产力和预期寿命，并进一步增加COVID-19并发症和死亡的风险。来自这些研究的数据将用于模拟以植物为基础的食物系统对英国发病率和死亡率的影响。该项目的下一个方面将是评估这种剧烈的社会变化的经济影响。采用植物性食物系统的健康经济学将使用健康模型的数据进行估计。该项目的最后一个重点将涉及调查实施障碍，如社会经济、政治和地理因素，并为它们制定创新的解决方案。采用问卷调查的方式对实施障碍进行研究。这种方法尚未在英国报道，并将提供对消费者行为的独特见解。这位博士将采取一种开创性的方法，从多个角度看待植物性饮食。到项目结束时，将利用新证据的产生和执行战略的制定，为健康可持续饮食的新政策提供信息，与英国实现净零的努力保持一致。参考文献eshel， G., Stainier， P., Shepon， A.和Swaminathan， A., 2019。环境最优，营养合理，蛋白质和节能的植物性肉类替代品。科学通报，9(1),pp.1-11。饶,2021年。畜牧业是气候变化的主要原因-立场文件。生态学报，32-33,pp.155-167。

The coronavirus pandemic has severely impacted the UK economy. As we learn to control and live alongside coronavirus the Government is looking to embark on a green recovery with the hopes of building the economy back better. The Government has laid out a ten-point plan for a green industrial revolution in which they commit to transforming the energy sector, ending the sale of petrol and diesel cars, decarbonising public transport, developing greener buildings, investing in carbon capture and storage, and protecting our natural environment. Revolutionising our food system as a means of combatting the climate crisis does not seem to be a government priority. Animal agriculture is estimated to account for 14.5-87% of greenhouse gas emissions. Modelling studies have estimated that Americans can eliminate pastureland use whilst saving 35-50% of their diet related needs for cropland, reactive nitrogen, and greenhouse gas emissions, by replacing meat consumption with plant-based alternatives (Eshel et al., 2019). The proposed work will, for the first time, predict the environmental impacts caused by the implementation of plant-based food systems containing a varying amount of animal products in the UK. State of the art statistical and computational modelling and sensitivity analyses will be used to achieve this. The findings will highlight whether the UK Government should expand the focus of their green revolution to include food production. Alongside the numerous environmental benefits, plant-based diets have many reported health benefits, however, data is limited and evidence gathering is still required. A portion of this project will be dedicated to assessing the health consequences of the consumption of plant-based diets. This will involve meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials and prospective cohort studies to determine the effects of plant-based diet consumption on risk factors and risk of disease, respectively. These studies will be focused on obesity and other related non-communicable diseases like diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia and cardiovascular disease, since they are highly prevalent conditions worsening ill-health, quality of life, productivity, and life expectancy, and furthermore increase the risk of complications and death from COVID-19. The data from these studies will be used to model the effect of a plant-based food system on the rates morbidity and mortality in the UK. The next aspect of the project will be to evaluate the economic impact of such a drastic societal change. The health economics of adopting a plant-based food system will be estimated using data from the health model. The final focus of the project will involve investigating the implementation barriers e.g., socioeconomic, political, and geographical factors, and developing innovative solutions for them. The implementation barriers will be studied using survey questionnaires. This approach is yet to be reported in the UK and will provide a unique insight into consumer behaviour. This PhD will take a pioneering approach, looking at plant-based diets through multiple lenses. By the end of the project the generation of new evidence and the development of strategies for implementation, will be utilised to inform new policies on healthy sustainable diets, aligning with the UK drive towards Net Zero.ReferencesEshel, G., Stainier, P., Shepon, A. and Swaminathan, A., 2019. environmentally optimal, nutritionally sound, protein and energy Conserving plant Based Alternatives to Us Meat. Scientific reports, 9(1), pp.1-11.Rao, 2021. Animal agriculture is the leading cause of climate change - A position paper. Journal of Ecological Society, 32-33, pp.155-167.