Should the UK go plant-based to support its' green recovery? An environmental, economic and health analysis

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The coronavirus pandemic has severely impacted the UK economy. As we learn to control and live alongside coronavirus the Government is looking to embark on a green recovery with the hopes of building the economy back better. The Government has laid out a ten-point plan for a green industrial revolution in which they commit to transforming the energy sector, ending the sale of petrol and diesel cars, decarbonising public transport, developing greener buildings, investing in carbon capture and storage, and protecting our natural environment. Revolutionising our food system as a means of combatting the climate crisis does not seem to be a government priority. Animal agriculture is estimated to account for 14.5-87% of greenhouse gas emissions. Modelling studies have estimated that Americans can eliminate pastureland use whilst saving 35-50% of their diet related needs for cropland, reactive nitrogen, and greenhouse gas emissions, by replacing meat consumption with plant-based alternatives (Eshel et al., 2019). The proposed work will, for the first time, predict the environmental impacts caused by the implementation of plant-based food systems containing a varying amount of animal products in the UK. State of the art statistical and computational modelling and sensitivity analyses will be used to achieve this. The findings will highlight whether the UK Government should expand the focus of their green revolution to include food production. Alongside the numerous environmental benefits, plant-based diets have many reported health benefits, however, data is limited and evidence gathering is still required. A portion of this project will be dedicated to assessing the health consequences of the consumption of plant-based diets. This will involve meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials and prospective cohort studies to determine the effects of plant-based diet consumption on risk factors and risk of disease, respectively. These studies will be focused on obesity and other related non-communicable diseases like diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia and cardiovascular disease, since they are highly prevalent conditions worsening ill-health, quality of life, productivity, and life expectancy, and furthermore increase the risk of complications and death from COVID-19. The data from these studies will be used to model the effect of a plant-based food system on the rates morbidity and mortality in the UK. The next aspect of the project will be to evaluate the economic impact of such a drastic societal change. The health economics of adopting a plant-based food system will be estimated using data from the health model. The final focus of the project will involve investigating the implementation barriers e.g., socioeconomic, political, and geographical factors, and developing innovative solutions for them. The implementation barriers will be studied using survey questionnaires. This approach is yet to be reported in the UK and will provide a unique insight into consumer behaviour. This PhD will take a pioneering approach, looking at plant-based diets through multiple lenses. By the end of the project the generation of new evidence and the development of strategies for implementation, will be utilised to inform new policies on healthy sustainable diets, aligning with the UK drive towards Net Zero.ReferencesEshel, G., Stainier, P., Shepon, A. and Swaminathan, A., 2019. environmentally optimal, nutritionally sound, protein and energy Conserving plant Based Alternatives to Us Meat. Scientific reports, 9(1), pp.1-11.Rao, 2021. Animal agriculture is the leading cause of climate change - A position paper. Journal of Ecological Society, 32-33, pp.155-167.