Advanced analytical methods to support improved decision-making in railway systems

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Demand forecasting and appraisal methods for railway projects have been shown to have severe limitations especially for certain types of schemes. For example, the construction of new railway lines and stations, the selection and introduction of alternative light rail systems or operational choices regarding under-utilised lines. The limitations include, among others, large inaccuracies in demand forecasting, failure to capture the differential value of railways relative to other forms of transport and an incomplete account of wider social and economic impact. In all of the applications mentioned, changes in the railways are subject to strong interrelationships with the rest of the transport system and more advanced methods are required to capture the complexities of the railway and broader transport networks.This project will develop advanced analytical methods in the area of demand forecasting, with application for rail appraisal. The research will contribute towards developing the state-of-the-art suite of methods to support enhanced decision-making in railways, new rail technologies and the transport sector as a whole.