Longevity and mortality in industrialized societies

工业化社会的寿命和死亡率

• 批准号: 7086351
• 负责人: JOHN R WILMOTH
• 金额: $ 61.21万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-07-21 至 2009-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7086351
• 关键词: age difference; archives; behavioral /social science research tag; clinical research; death certificates; epidemiology; gender difference; human data; human mortality; human population dynamics; human population study; information systems; longevity; longitudinal human study; mathematical model; population survey; sociology /anthropology; vital statistics

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Mortality patterns reflect fundamental characteristics of societies and help to reveal important changes in population health over time. In order to improve our understanding of such topics, we propose here to examine historical and contemporary mortality patterns for a wide range of industrialized countries, including the United States. The work for this project is organized into three parts. The first part consists of an analysis of past trends in both total and cause-specific mortality. The second part addresses fundamental issues about how best to project mortality trends into the future. In the third part of the project, we will continue to build and improve the Human Mortality Database (HMD; http://www.mortality.org). The substantive questions that motivate this project are focused on certain features of recent mortality trends sharing two key characteristics: 1) they represent important breaks with the past, and 2) they introduce a significant element of uncertainty with regard to future trends. Specifically, we will examine the pronounced slowdown in the pace of mortality reduction at advanced ages in the United States since the early 1980s. This trend has affected female mortality in particular, contributing to an overall narrowing of sex differences. We propose to review the long-term evolution of the sex gap in mortality as background for an analysis of recent trends. To enrich these studies, the project includes a specific component for the collection and analysis of historical mortality data by cause of death. The methodology of mortality projection forms the second part of the proposed project. The accuracy of alternative approaches will be assessed by various means with respect to certain key features: for example, whether it is better to derive projections of total mortality from separate projections by sex and/or cause of death. Lastly, both the substantive and methodological parts of this project will be aided by our continuing efforts to develop the Human Mortality Database, which is used widely by other researchers as well.

描述（由申请人提供）：死亡率模式反映了社会的基本特征，有助于揭示人口健康随时间的重要变化。为了提高我们对这些主题的理解，我们建议在这里研究包括美国在内的广泛工业化国家的历史和当代死亡率模式。该项目的工作分为三个部分。第一部分分析了过去总死亡率和具体原因死亡率的趋势。第二部分涉及如何最好地预测未来死亡率趋势的基本问题。在项目的第三部分，我们将继续建立和改进人类死亡率数据库（HMD; http://www.mortality.org）。 激发这一项目的实质性问题集中在最近死亡率趋势的某些特征上，这些特征共有两个关键特征：1）它们代表着与过去的重大突破，2）它们对未来趋势带来了重大的不确定因素。具体来说，我们将研究自20世纪80年代初以来美国高龄死亡率下降速度的明显放缓。这一趋势尤其影响到女性死亡率，促使性别差异总体缩小。我们建议回顾死亡率性别差距的长期演变，作为分析近期趋势的背景。为了丰富这些研究，该项目包括一个具体组成部分，收集和分析按死因分列的历史死亡率数据。 死亡率预测方法是拟议项目的第二部分。将通过各种方法评估替代方法在某些关键特征方面的准确性：例如，从按性别和/或死因分列的预测中得出总死亡率预测是否更好。最后，我们将继续努力开发人类死亡率数据库，以帮助该项目的实质性和方法部分，该数据库也被其他研究人员广泛使用。