Studies in Global Mortality

全球死亡率研究

• 批准号: 8318107
• 负责人: JOHN R WILMOTH
• 金额: $ 27.57万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-07-21 至 2015-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8318107
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Affect; Age; Area; Asian Americans; Award; Case Study; Categories; Cause of Death; Censuses; Characteristics; Classification; Code; Collection; Complex; Country; Data; Data Base Management; Data Quality; Data Sources; Database Management Systems; Databases; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Development; Elderly; Evaluation; Female; Goals; Income; Information Systems; International; Investigation; Life; Life Table Models; Longevity; Measures; Methods; Monitor; National Institute on Aging; Obesity; Output; Pattern; Phase; Population; Relative (related person); Research; Research Project Grants; Research Support; Resources; Risk Factors; Series; Sex Characteristics; Smoking; Social Class; Societies; System; Techniques; Time; Uncertainty; United States; Update; Work; comparative; data management; database design; human mortality; improved; innovation; mortality; population health; prevent; programs; public health relevance; repository; sex; tool; trend

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Mortality patterns reflect fundamental characteristics of societies and help to reveal important changes in population health over time. In order to improve our understanding of such topics, we propose here to examine historical and contemporary mortality patterns for a wide range of countries, including the United States. The work for this project is organized into three parts. The first part consists of an analysis of comparative mortality trends in high-income countries. In the second part, we will continue our efforts to develop publicly accessible data resources for the analysis of global mortality trends, including the developing world. In the third part of this project, we will develop new and better methods for estimating and analyzing mortality in both developed and developing countries. The substantive questions that motivate this project are focused on certain features of recent mortality trends. Specifically, we will examine the pronounced slowdown in the pace of mortality reduction at advanced ages in the United States since around 1980. This trend has affected female mortality in particular, contributing to an overall narrowing of sex differences. We propose to investigate the contribution of key risk factors (especially, smoking and obesity) to these recent trends. To enrich these studies, the project includes a detailed plan for collecting and organizing historical mortality data by cause of death, which will be shared publicly via the Human Mortality Database (www.mortality.org). The project will also address a number of important issues regarding methods for estimating current and historical mortality levels, especially in developing countries. We will develop updated methods of indirect estimation using a new system of model life tables that we have proposed recently. We will also develop new and better methods for quantifying the uncertainty of mortality estimates, especially for countries that lack complete and reliable data from censuses and vital registration. To facilitate this research, we are building a complex database for storing all forms of data that are typically used for estimating both all-cause and cause-specific mortality in national populations. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: "Studies in Global Mortality" examines historical and contemporary mortality patterns for a wide range of countries, including the United States. Estimating mortality and its causes is an important step in determining the relative importance of factors preventing longer life, and as such are directly relevant to the goals of the National Institute on Aging.

描述（由申请人提供）：死亡率模式反映了社会的基本特征，有助于揭示人口健康随时间的重要变化。为了提高我们对这些主题的理解，我们建议在这里研究包括美国在内的许多国家的历史和当代死亡率模式。该项目的工作分为三个部分。第一部分分析了高收入国家死亡率的比较趋势。在第二部分，我们将继续努力开发可公开获取的数据资源，用于分析全球死亡率趋势，包括发展中世界的死亡率趋势。在本项目的第三部分，我们将开发新的和更好的方法来估计和分析发达国家和发展中国家的死亡率。 激发这一项目的实质性问题集中在最近死亡率趋势的某些特征上。具体来说，我们将研究自1980年左右以来美国高龄死亡率下降速度的明显放缓。这一趋势尤其影响到女性死亡率，促使性别差异总体缩小。我们建议调查关键风险因素（特别是吸烟和肥胖）对这些最新趋势的贡献。为了丰富这些研究，该项目包括一项按死因收集和组织历史死亡率数据的详细计划，这些数据将通过人类死亡率数据库（www.mortality.org）公开共享。 该项目还将处理关于估计当前和历史死亡率的方法的一些重要问题，特别是在发展中国家。我们将使用我们最近提出的模型生命表的新系统来开发更新的间接估计方法。我们还将制定新的和更好的方法，以量化死亡率估计数的不确定性，特别是为缺乏人口普查和人口动态登记的完整和可靠数据的国家。为了促进这项研究，我们正在建立一个复杂的数据库，用于存储通常用于估计全国人口全因死亡率和特定原因死亡率的所有形式的数据。 公共卫生相关性：“全球死亡率研究”研究了包括美国在内的许多国家的历史和当代死亡率模式。估计死亡率及其原因是确定阻碍长寿因素相对重要性的重要一步，因此与国家老龄问题研究所的目标直接相关。