Components of nuptiality and fertility change

描述（由申请人提供）：该研究将根据日本《每日新闻》进行的 1990 年、1994 年、1996 年、1998 年、2000 年和 2004 年各轮全国计划生育调查的数据，分析结婚率和生育率变化的组成部分。拟议的研究既有方法论部分，也有实质性部分。方法论创新包括以下内容：（1）开发多变量方法，用于分析预测变量对首次婚姻进展的时期和队列生命表测量的影响； (2) 开发一种多变量方法来分析预测变量对总和生育率和婚姻总和生育率的时期和队列测量的影响； (3) 开发一种多变量方法，用于计算进展到初婚的时期和队列生命表指标的变化组成部分； (4) 开发一种多变量方法，用于计算总和生育率和总婚姻生育率两个时期的变化成分。这四种方法是相关的，并且都利用危险回归。研究的实质性部分将涉及应用这些方法来分析（1）每轮调查中影响婚姻和生育率的因素以及（2）由于各种人口和社会经济因素而导致调查之间婚姻和生育率变化的组成部分。该研究将以研究人员之前发表的关于日本婚姻和生育率变化的研究为基础。该研究的预期成果是在美国人口协会 2006 年年会上发表一篇论文，并在一份主要人口期刊上发表一篇文章（在拨款结束前提交出版）。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The research will analyze components of change in nuptiality and fertility, based on data from the 1990, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2004 rounds of the National Survey on Family Planning, conducted by the Mainichi Newspapers of Japan. The proposed research has a methodological component as well as a substantive component. Methodological innovations include the following: (1) development of a multivariate method for analyzing the effects of predictor variables on both period and cohort life table measures of progression to first marriage; (2) development of a multivariate method for analyzing the effects of predictor variables on both period and cohort measures of the total fertility rate and the total marital fertility rate; (3) development of a multivariate method for calculating components of change in both period and cohort life table measures of progression to first marriage; and (4) development of a multivariate method for calculating components of change in both period a cohort measures of the total fertility rate and total marital fertility rate. The four methods are related, and they all utilize hazard regression. The substantive component of the research will involve application of these methods to analyze (1) factors affecting nuptiality and fertility in each of the survey rounds and (2) components of change in nuptiality and fertility between the surveys due to various demographic and socioeconomic factors. The research will build on previous published work by the investigators on nuptiality and fertility change in Japan. Expected output from the research is one paper to be presented at the 2006 annual meeting of the Population Association of America and one article in a major population journal (submitted for publication by the end of the grant).