Assessing the calibration of multivariate ensemble forecasts (Ref:4659)

评估多元集合预测的校准（参考：4659）

• 批准号: 2859637
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2859637
• 关键词: Assessing; calibration; multivariate; ensemble; forecasts

This project aims to create powerful statistical methods for assessing the calibration of multivariate ensemble predictions. Novel features will be the extension of existing methods to make them suitable for ensemble predictions, and the exploitation of information contained in multi-horizon predictions. These methods will enhance the ability of forecasters to monitor and understand the performance of their forecasts, to identify cases of poor performance as well as conditions in which performance tends to be poor, to quantify biases in their forecasts, and to recognise new sources of predictive information.

该项目旨在创建强大的统计方法来评估多元集合预测的校准。新特征将是现有方法的扩展，使其适用于整体预测以及多水平预测中包含的信息的利用。这些方法将增强预测者监控和理解其预测表现的能力，识别表现不佳的情况以及表现往往较差的情况，量化预测中的偏差，并识别新的预测信息来源。