Combining Data Analysis, Transmission, and Geostatistical Modelling to Support the Control and Elimination of Onchocerciasis in Africa

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Onchocerciasis is a parasitic neglected tropical disease, transmitted among humans via the bites of the Simulium blackfly vector. Infection with the aetiological agent, Onchocerca volvulus, leads to a range of debilitating pathologies from chronic itching to blindness. The World Health Organization aim to obtain elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis in 12 countries across sub-Saharan Africa by 2030. Mathematical transmission models, such as Imperial College's EPIONCHO-IBM are crucial in forecasting the changing burden of the disease and success of varying interventions.My PhD utilises EPIONCHO-IBM to further elimination of onchocerciasis efforts. I have incorporated onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) into the model, ensuring the full burden of infection is captured. Further, I have determined threshold biting rates and the role of stochastic thresholds influencing the lowest level of burden, in hypoendemic conditions, the model can capture and the subsequent ramifications upon the need to implement pharmacological intervention in the field. Currently, my work focuses on both understanding where these thresholds also lie in terms of Ov16 prevalence, a serological measure of onchocerciasis infection, as well as investigating the influence of immigration from a hyper- to hypoendemic setting on establishing novel infection.My work has been presented at two international conferences with a number of publications pending.