Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change

将模型与分子“日志”相结合，以更好地预测气候变化带来的灭绝风险

• 批准号: FT140101192
• 负责人: A/Prof Damien Fordham
• 金额: $ 53.15万
• 依托单位: The University of Adelaide
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: ARC Future Fellowships
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2014-09-24 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/FT140101192
• 关键词: Integrating; models; molecular; logbooks; better

Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imprinted in species’ genes to resolve whether the disparity between observed and predicted extinction rates comes from models over-predicting species loss due to climate change. It will use this genetic-demographic approach to improve predictions of biodiversity responses to global change by establishing the biological and environmental determinants of extinction.

目前的预测表明，人类驱动的气候变化可能会造成广泛的生物多样性丧失。然而，第四纪（260万年前至今）的气候变化，与预测的21世纪的气候变化幅度相似，显然没有引起广泛的灭绝（巨型动物除外）。该项目旨在使用与物种基因中过去反应相关的模型，以解决观测和预测灭绝率之间的差异是否来自过度预测气候变化导致的物种损失的模型。它将利用这一遗传-人口方法，通过确定灭绝的生物和环境决定因素，改进对生物多样性对全球变化的反应的预测。