Risk in Context: New Methodology for Modeling Risk by Context Interactions

背景中的风险：通过背景交互进行风险建模的新方法

• 批准号: 7487914
• 负责人: M LEE VAN HORN
• 金额: $ 11.71万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT COLUMBIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-08-22 至 2010-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7487914
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Affect; Characteristics; Child; Class; Complex; Condition; Data; Data Set; Development; Disease regression; Early Intervention; Empirical Research; Environment; Evaluation; Event; Family; Future; Health; Horns; Individual; Individual Differences; Intention; Intervention; Joints; Knowledge; Lead; Life; Literature; Mental Depression; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Outcome; Performance; Population; Prevention; Probability; Problem behavior; Process; Public Health; Purpose; Research; Resources; Respondent; Risk; Risk Factors; Sampling; Schools; Statistical Models; Stress; Structure; Students; Study models; System; Techniques; Testing; Thinking; Weight; Work; base; demographics; design; experience; improved; innovation; simulation; social skills; theories; tool

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Theoretical work on how contextual environments affect health outcomes has long stressed the importance of interactive effects: contexts are often expected to affect individuals differently. In fact, risk for poor developmental outcomes is often conceived of as an interaction - risk factors may have negative effects only for those experiencing high levels of stress or multiple risk factors. Research examining these interactions, however, has typically been limited to studying simple bivariate interactions. The purpose of this study is to develop and demonstrate the utility of a new statistical tool, random effect regression mixture models, to further the study of risk in context. These models work by identifying latent classes of individuals who are differentially affected by their contexts and then provide the tools to understand what differentiates these children. The study will evaluate the conditions under which valid inferences can be made using these models and then demonstrates their use to assess differential effects of stressful life events. These models will then be further developed to allow their use with multilevel data through the inclusion of random effects. Monte Carlo simulations will be conducted to evaluate the utility of the models in conjunction with analyses conducted on a large sample of high-risk children to demonstrate the utility of the models with real data. The results will focus on demonstrating the validity of this model when used to study how developmental contexts affect children differently. In a final set of analyses multilevel random effects models will be applied to data from a second study to assess the effects of stressful life events on the development of depression. This application is important for providing evidence that previous results are not situation specific. Further, as the second study was designed to look at complex context by risk interactions this application should demonstrate the power of these models as a tool for answering real world reseach questions.

描述（由申请人提供）：关于背景环境如何影响健康结果的理论工作长期以来一直强调互动效应的重要性：背景通常会对个人产生不同的影响。事实上，不良发展结果的风险通常被认为是一种相互作用-风险因素可能只对那些经历高水平压力或多种风险因素的人产生负面影响。然而，研究这些相互作用的研究通常仅限于研究简单的双变量相互作用。本研究的目的是开发和展示一种新的统计工具，随机效应回归混合模型的实用性，以进一步研究风险的背景。这些模型的工作原理是识别受其环境影响不同的潜在个体类别，然后提供工具来了解这些儿童的差异。该研究将评估的条件下，有效的推论，可以使用这些模型，然后演示它们的使用，以评估压力的生活事件的差异影响。然后将进一步发展这些模型，以便通过纳入随机效应将其用于多层次数据。将进行蒙特卡罗模拟，以评价模型的效用，并结合对高风险儿童的大样本进行分析，以证明模型对真实的数据的效用。结果将集中在证明这个模型的有效性时，用于研究发展环境如何影响儿童不同。在最后一组分析中，多水平随机效应模型将应用于第二项研究的数据，以评估压力生活事件对抑郁症发展的影响。这个应用程序是重要的，提供证据表明，以前的结果是不具体的情况。此外，由于第二项研究的目的是通过风险相互作用来研究复杂的背景，因此该应用程序应展示这些模型作为回答真实的世界研究问题的工具的能力。